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重新发现趋势

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月18日 07:20:56
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(年)(将)(继)(续)(闪)(耀)(光)(芒)(。  针)(对)(2015年)(具)(体)(的)(宏)(观)(政)(策)(,经)(济)(学)(家)(们)(认)(为)(,降)(息)(仍)(存)(在)(空)(间)(,有)(的)(专)(家)(甚)(至)(指)(出)(,至)(少)(有)(2次)(降)(息)(。  虽)(经)(过)(2014年)(年)(末)(对)(地)(方)(债)(的)(分)(类)(甄)(别)(,新)(预)(算)(法)(也)(将)(对)(地)(方)(债)(的)(管)(理)(,提)(出)(更)(具)(体)(的)(要)(求)(,但)(地)(方)(债)(仍)(存)(在)(一)(定)(风)(险)(。  本)(报)(记)(者)(定)(军)(王)(建)(坤)(周)(潇)(枭)(  特)(约)(记)(者)(刘)(洁)(实)(习)(记)(者)(孙)(倩)(北)(京)(报)(道)(  “十)(二)(五)(”的)(最)(后)(一)(年)(,将)(是)(中)(国)(经)(济)(进)(入)(新)(常)(态)(的)(第)(三)(年)(。  根)(据)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(对)(20位)(知)(名)(经)(济)(学)(家)(的)(采)(访)(,经)(济)(学)(家)(们)(普)(遍)(认)(为)(,2015年)(经)(济)(增)(速)(应)(该)(维)(持)(在)(7%-7.5%之)(间)(,居)(民)(消)(费)(价)(格)(在)(1%-2%之)(间)(,但)(是)(2015年)(经)(济)(下)(行)(因)(素)(仍)(然)(存)(在)(,需)(要)(通)(过)(改)(革)(来)(释)(放)(经)(济)(的)(新)(动)(力)(。  同)(时)(货)(币)(政)(策)(也)(需)(要)(进)(一)(步)(放)(松)(,除)(了)(物)(价)(下)(行)(因)(素)(以)(外)(,还)(应)(考)(虑)(继)(续)(降)(低)(企)(业)(融)(资)(成)(本)(,减)(少)(债)(务)(风)(险)(。  国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(将)(在)(2015年)(1月)(中)(旬)(公)(布)(2014年)(的)(经)(济)(数)(字)(。接)(受)(采)(访)(的)(专)(家)(认)(为)(,考)(虑)(到)(2013经)(济)(总)(量)(比)(原)(先)(提)(高)(了)(近)(2万)(亿)(元)(,2013年)(经)(济)(总)(量)(比)(原)(先)(提)(高)(了)(3.4%,最)(后)(2013年)(的)(经)(济)(增)(速)(可)(能)(要)(调)(高)(。  再)(考)(虑)(国)(家)(实)(施)(核)(算)(制)(度)(改)(革)(,研)(发)(投)(入)(等)(将)(计)(入)(GDP(地)(区)(生)(产)(总)(值)(),最)(后)(2014年)(的)(经)(济)(增)(速)(可)(能)(会)(达)(到)(全)(年)(7.5%的)(指)(标)(。而)(2005年)(经)(济)(增)(速)(可)(能)(会)(放)(慢)(,但)(不)(会)(低)(于)(7%。  2015年)(我)(国)(可)(期)(的)(创)(新)(驱)(动)(方)(面)(的)(突)(破)(将)(主)(要)(体)(现)(在)(体)(制)(创)(新)(,互)(联)(网)(与)(传)(统)(产)(业)(融)(合)(形)(成)(创)(新)(驱)(动)(,2015年)(将)(继)(续)(闪)(耀)(光)(芒)(。  经)(济)(将)(整)(体)(稳)(定)(  根)(据)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(的)(采)(访)(,经)(济)(学)(家)(普)(遍)(认)(为)(,2015年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(为)(7%以)(上)(,乐)(观)(预)(测)(认)(为)(,2015年)(经)(济)(增)(速)(可)(以)(达)(到)(7.2%。居)(民)(消)(费)(价)(格)(一)(般)(在)(2%左)(右)(,有)(1-2名)(经)(济)(学)(家)(认)(为)(,可)(能)(物)(价)(增)(速)(为)(1%-2%之)(间)(,甚)(至)(低)(于)(1%的)(可)(能)(性)(也)(存)(在)(。  经)(济)(学)(家)(一)(般)(认)(为)(,2015年)(的)(就)(业)(形)(势)(很)(好)(,一)(般)(认)(为)(,调)(查)(失)(业)(率)(在)(5%左)(右)(,与)(2014年)(相)(比)(,比)(较)(稳)(定)(,但)(是)(也)(有)(少)(数)(经)(济)(学)(家)(认)(为)(,2015年)(的)(调)(查)(失)(业)(率)(可)(能)(在)(6%左)(右)(。而)(2015年)(的)(广)(义)(货)(币)(增)(速)(,一)(般)(在)(12%-13%左)(右)(。赤)(字)(率)(则)(一)(般)(在)(2.1%-2.5%之)(间)(,但)(2015年)(赤)(字)(率)(比)(2014年)(的)(2.1%比)(例)(要)(高)(。  对)(于)(2015年)(的)(投)(资)(、出)(口)(等)(,交)(行)(金)(融)(研)(究)(中)(心)(高)(级)(金)(融)(分)(析)(师)(唐)(建)(伟)(认)(为)(,2015年)(的)(同)(比)(增)(速)(可)(能)(会)(降)(低)(,比)(如)(2015年)(投)(资)(增)(速)(可)(能)(在)(15%左)(右)(,而)(出)(口)(增)(速)(可)(能)(在)(6%左)(右)(。  对)(于)(2015年)(经)(济)(增)(速)(可)(能)(低)(于)(2014年)(的)(情)(况)(,经)(济)(学)(家)(普)(遍)(认)(为)(,这)(是)(经)(济)(进)(入)(新)(常)(态)(的)(正)(常)(表)(现)(。银)(河)(证)(券)(有)(限)(责)(任)(公)(司)(首)(席)(研)(究)(员)(、高)(级)(经)(济)(学)(家)(左)(小)(蕾)(表)(示)(,经)(济)(发)(展)(新)(常)(态)(就)(是)(保)(持)(个)(位)(数)(的)(增)(长)(,而)(不)(要)(去)(纠)(结)(具)(体)(是)(多)(少)(数)(字)(。  经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(慢)(,“这)(不)(代)(表)(我)(们)(的)(经)(济)(进)(入)(了)(一)(个)(糟)(糕)(的)(状)(况)(。从)(中)(国)(自)(身)(来)(看)(,我)(们)(现)(有)(的)(经)(济)(规)(模)(已)(经)(很)(大)(了)(。过)(去)(的)(经)(济)(发)(展)(存)(在)(后)(期)(问)(题)(,比)(如)(高)(污)(染)(等)(,这)(说)(明)(经)(济)(发)(展)(存)(在)(水)(分)(。”左)(小)(蕾)(称)(。  经)(济)(增)(长)(呈)(高)(速)(渐)(进)(的)(放)(缓)(,这)(个)(变)(化)(是)(符)(合)(发)(展)(规)(律)(的)(变)(化)(。所)(以)(,中)(国)(要)(顺)(应)(规)(律)(向)(适)(合)(新)(常)(态)(的)(新)(结)(构)(,新)(的)(增)(长)(动)(力)(的)(方)(向)(求)(变)(。新)(常)(态)(是)(改)(革)(和)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(难)(得)(的)(新)(的)(战)(略)(机)(遇)(期)(。  但)(是)(也)(不)(能)(认)(为)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(慢)(,就)(没)(有)(风)(险)(。  有)(的)(经)(济)(学)(家)(认)(为)(,2015年)(的)(经)(济)(风)(险)(在)(于)(,积)(极)(准)(备)(风)(险)(应)(对)(预)(案)(的)(前)(提)(下)(,保)(持)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(运)(行)(基)(本)(稳)(定)(,防)(止)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(与)(内)(部)(冲)(击)(叠)(加)(,我)(国)(仍)(有)(条)(件)(避)(免)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(集)(中)(爆)(发)(。  社)(科)(院)(数)(量)(经)(济)(与)(技)(术)(经)(济)(研)(究)(所)(副)(所)(长)(李)(雪)(松)(表)(示)(,2015年)(需)(要)(警)(惕)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(和)(美)(元)(走)(强)(对)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(和)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(冲)(击)(。  也)(有)(部)(分)(经)(济)(学)(家)(认)(为)(,2015年)(经)(济)(的)(风)(险)(在)(于)(需)(求)(过)(低)(,比)(如)(工)(业)(生)(产)(者)(价)(格)(指)(数)(可)(能)(为)(负)(数)(,全)(年)(下)(降)(2%-3%。  也)(有)(经)(济)(学)(家)(认)(为)(,2015年)(需)(要)(避)(免)(出)(现)(通)(缩)(。北)(大)(中)(国)(国)(民)(经)(济)(核)(算)(与)(经)(济)(增)(长)(研)(究)(中)(心)(副)(主)(任)(蔡)(志)(洲)(认)(为)(,目)(前)(,整)(个)(中)(国)(经)(济)(处)(于)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(阶)(段)(,大)(部)(分)(商)(品)(都)(是)(供)(给)(大)(于)(需)(求)(,整)(体)(物)(价)(会)(稍)(微)(走)(低)(。随)(着)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(恢)(复)(,价)(格)(指)(数)(会)(慢)(慢)(上)(去)(,但)(不)(可)(能)(总)(是)(很)(低)(,否)(则)(经)(济)(增)(长)(是)(不)(能)(持)(续)(的)(。  应)(进)(一)(步)(改)(革)(释)(放)(新)(动)(力)(  而)(针)(对)(2015年)(经)(济)(工)(作)(,经)(济)(学)(家)(们)(普)(遍)(认)(为)(,需)(要)(通)(过)(改)(革)(等)(来)(释)(放)(新)(的)(动)(力)(。  国)(开)(行)(研)(究)(院)(常)(务)(副)(院)(长)(郭)(濂)(认)(为)(,短)(期)(可)(以)(要)(素)(扩)(张)(、基)(础)(设)(施)(建)(设)(为)(主)(提)(振)(经)(济)(增)(长)(、维)(持)(经)(济)(稳)(定)(。但)(是)(2015年)(我)(国)(可)(期)(的)(创)(新)(驱)(动)(方)(面)(的)(突)(破)(将)(主)(要)(体)(现)(在)(体)(制)(创)(新)(上)(,通)(过)(体)(制)(创)(新)(来)(为)(企)(业)(松)(绑)(减)(负)(并)(拓)(展)(市)(场)(的)(空)(间)(和)(深)(度)(,激)(励)(企)(业)(创)(新)(和)(产)(业)(升)(级)(。  国)(务)(院)(发)(展)(研)(究)(中)(心)(研)(究)(员)(陈)(昌)(盛)(认)(为)(,经)(济)(的)(新)(动)(力)(,信)(息)(化)(与)(传)(统)(产)(业)(融)(合)(是)(主)(要)(突)(破)(方)(向)(,智)(能)(制)(造)(会)(有)(进)(展)(。也)(有)(学)(者)(认)(为)(,通)(过)(自)(贸)(区)(改)(革)(,可)(以)(释)(放)(经)(济)(新)(动)(力)(。李)(雪)(松)(也)(认)(为)(,自)(贸)(区)(需)(要)(加)(快)(与)(负)(面)(清)(单)(以)(及)(事)(中)(事)(后)(监)(管)(相)(配)(套)(的)(改)(革)(以)(及)(金)(融)(领)(域)(的)(改)(革)(,2015年)(要)(加)(快)(审)(批)(、价)(格)(、金)(融)(、财)(税)(、垄)(断)(行)(业)(、投)(融)(资)(体)(制)(等)(领)(域)(的)(改)(革)(。  也)(有)(学)(者)(指)(出)(,经)(济)(的)(新)(动)(力)(在)(服)(务)(业)(。  “发)(展)(服)(务)(业)(和)(创)(新)(产)(业)(,意)(味)(着)(我)(们)(进)(入)(了)(一)(个)(新)(结)(构)(。而)(经)(济)(发)(展)(新)(动)(力)(是)(什)(么)(,该)(怎)(么)(引)(导)(新)(动)(力)(,这)(些)(都)(要)(交)(给)(市)(场)(去)(讨)(论)(。”左)(小)(蕾)(表)(示)(。  唐)(建)(伟)(表)(示)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(在)(产)(业)(结)(构)(调)(整)(方)(面)(,比)(如)(三)(产)(的)(比)(重)(要)(提)(升)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,要)(由)(过)(去)(依)(靠)(投)(资)(转)(为)(消)(费)(。投)(资)(中)(不)(合)(理)(的)(部)(分)(,以)(及)(消)(费)(中)(浪)(费)(的)(部)(分)(,都)(要)(挤)(掉)(。  考)(虑)(到)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(将)(2013年)(服)(务)(业)(比)(重)(调)(高)(了)(,下)(一)(步)(服)(务)(业)(需)(要)(从)(数)(量)(增)(长)(,转)(为)(服)(务)(质)(量)(的)(增)(长)(,开)(发)(和)(降)(低)(门)(槛)(,增)(加)(其)(规)(模)(效)(益)(,提)(高)(服)(务)(业)(产)(率)(,对)(居)(民)(是)(十)(分)(有)(利)(的)(。  “互)(联)(网)(与)(传)(统)(产)(业)(和)(行)(政)(体)(制)(的)(融)(合)(就)(是)(非)(常)(典)(型)(的)(创)(新)(驱)(动)(,2015年)(将)(继)(续)(闪)(耀)(光)(芒)(。”郭)(濂)(说)(。  也)(有)(专)(家)(认)(为)(,核)(心)(还)(是)(要)(发)(挥)(市)(场)(的)(作)(用)(。搞)(价)(格)(改)(革)(,可)(以)(抬)(高)(物)(价)(,这)(种)(强)(行)(加)(给)(消)(费)(者)(的)(想)(法)(,是)(行)(不)(通)(的)(。只)(有)(市)(场)(的)(需)(求)(增)(大)(,才)(可)(能)(真)(正)(地)(提)(高)(产)(品)(价)(格)(。“不)(然)(只)(能)(是)(一)(厢)(情)(愿)(和)(推)(行)(后)(更)(大)(的)(亏)(损)(。”  更)(有)(专)(家)(一)(针)(见)(血)(地)(指)(出)(,2015年)(消)(费)(对)(经)(济)(的)(贡)(献)(率)(要)(超)(过)(投)(资)(,出)(口)(对)(经)(济)(的)(贡)(献)(率)(最)(低)(。关)(键)(是)(要)(加)(大)(改)(革)(力)(度)(,改)(革)(是)(政)(府)(的)(自)(身)(革)(命)(。也)(有)(经)(济)(学)(家)(提)(出)(,改)(革)(要)(在)(PPP及)(特)(许)(经)(营)(领)(域)(、户)(籍)(制)(度)(领)(域)(有)(所)(突)(破)(。  仍)(存)(降)(息)(空)(间)(  针)(对)(2015年)(具)(体)(的)(宏)(观)(政)(策)(,经)(济)(学)(家)(们)(认)(为)(,降)(息)(仍)(存)(在)(空)(间)(,有)(的)(专)(家)(甚)(至)(指)(出)(,至)(少)(有)(2次)(降)(息)(。  不)(过)(这)(种)(降)(息)(,并)(非)(因)(为)(物)(价)(水)(平)(低)(和)(通)(缩)(的)(压)(力)(,而)(主)(要)(是)(企)(业)(融)(资)(成)(本)(高)(。  “2014年)(11月)(央)(行)(实)(施)(结)(构)(性)(降)(息)((贷)(款)(利)(率)(降)(息)(幅)(度)(超)(过)(存)(款)(利)(率)(下)(降)(的)(幅)(度)(),是)(央)(行)(担)(心)(货)(币)(成)(长)(过)(多)(导)(致)(更)(多)(的)(呆)(账)(坏)(账)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(现)(在)(有)(大)(量)(的)(资)(金)(投)(放)(企)(业)(和)(大)(银)(行)(,所)(以)(要)(进)(行)(资)(金)(回)(转)(,而)(不)(是)(为)(了)(考)(虑)(物)(价)(。所)(以)(应)(该)(进)(一)(步)(适)(当)(地)(放)(宽)(经)(济)(政)(策)(,对)(市)(场)(产)(生)(一)(个)(小)(的)(回)(暖)(。”清)(华)(大)(学)(中)(国)(与)(世)(界)(经)(济)(研)(究)(中)(心)(研)(究)(员)(袁)(钢)(明)(分)(析)(。  也)(有)(学)(者)(认)(为)(,2015年)(货)(币)(政)(策)(还)(要)(强)(调)(适)(度)(。  花)(旗)(中)(国)(前)(经)(济)(学)(家)(沈)(明)(高)(认)(为)(,2015年)(上)(半)(年)(预)(计)(会)(有)(两)(次)(降)(息)(。降)(息)(既)(不)(是)(改)(革)(,也)(不)(是)(刺)(激)(,而)(且)(一)(定)(要)(把)(降)(息)(和)(刺)(激)(分)(别)(开)(来)(,财)(政)(赤)(字)(2015年)(预)(计)(是)(2.5%,实)(行)(“中)(央)(政)(策)(加)(杠)(杆)(,地)(方)(政)(策)(减)(杠)(杆)(”,将)(地)(方)(的)(债)(务)(交)(给)(中)(央)(来)(处)(理)(。避)(免)(未)(来)(产)(生)(扭)(曲)(。  也)(有)(学)(者)(认)(为)(,财)(政)(政)(策)(也)(要)(进)(一)(步)(发)(挥)(力)(度)(,减)(税)(利)(润)(仍)(不)(够)(。  财)(政)(政)(策)(有)(力)(度)(,一)(方)(面)(体)(现)(在)(赤)(字)(率)(可)(能)(增)(加)(。2014年)(赤)(字)(占)(GDP(地)(区)(生)(产)(总)(值)()的)(比)(例)(是)(2.1%,2015年)(可)(能)(要)(到)(2.5%。另)(一)(方)(面)(,财)(政)(支)(出)(也)(要)(加)(快)(,2014年)(仍)(旧)(存)(在)(年)(底)(突)(击)(发)(钱)(的)(情)(况)(,2015年)(可)(能)(要)(做)(出)(调)(整)(。此)(外)(,在)(财)(政)(上)(,减)(税)(也)(需)(要)(实)(质)(性)(动)(作)(。赤)(字)(率)(可)(能)(会)(略)(有)(增)(加)(。  唐)(建)(伟)(表)(示)(,所)(谓)(的)(松)(紧)(适)(度)(,就)(是)(要)(提)(高)(灵)(活)(性)(。在)(稳)(健)(的)(基)(础)(上)(,也)(有)(可)(调)(动)(性)(。需)(要)(放)(松)(的)(时)(候)(不)(能)(一)(成)(不)(变)(。出)(于)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(大)(,市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(不)(高)(,调)(整)(利)(率)(是)(很)(有)(可)(能)(的)(,包)(括)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(也)(有)(可)(能)(要)(调)(低)(。  海)(通)(证)(券)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(李)(迅)(雷)(认)(为)(,2015年)(货)(币)(政)(策)(降)(息)(空)(间)(比)(较)(小)(,实)(际)(利)(率)(会)(往)(上)(走)(。财)(政)(政)(策)(还)(是)(要)(更)(加)(积)(极)(些)(,原)(先)(几)(年)(的)(赤)(字)(率)(实)(际)(并)(未)(达)(到)(。  地)(方)(债)(规)(模)(不)(会)(缩)(小)(  中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(提)(出)(2015年)(要)(实)(施)(更)(有)(力)(度)(的)(积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(,接)(受)(采)(访)(的)(专)(家)(普)(遍)(指)(出)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(2015年)(财)(政)(赤)(字)(规)(模)(相)(较)(2014年)(1.35万)(亿)(会)(有)(所)(增)(加)(,由)(于)(赤)(字)(规)(模)(需)(经)(全)(国)(人)(大)(审)(批)(,很)(有)(可)(能)(会)(坚)(守)(3%的)(底)(线)(。  继)(续)(保)(持)(一)(定)(的)(政)(府)(支)(出)(,也)(是)(积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(的)(重)(要)(组)(成)(部)(分)(。至)(于)(2015年)(是)(否)(会)(继)(续)(减)(税)(,专)(家)(看)(法)(有)(所)(不)(同)(。  受)(经)(济)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(影)(响)(,财)(政)(收)(入)(也)(告)(别)(了)(高)(速)(增)(长)(时)(期)(,部)(分)(省)(份)(受)(经)(济)(周)(期)(影)(响)(较)(大)(,使)(得)(财)(政)(收)(入)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(得)(很)(明)(显)(。有)(专)(家)(认)(为)(进)(一)(步)(减)(税)(空)(间)(不)(大)(,重)(点)(要)(抓)(落)(实)(;但)(也)(有)(专)(家)(指)(出)(,减)(税)(能)(减)(轻)(企)(业)(负)(担)(,也)(能)(提)(振)(经)(济)(,可)(能)(带)(来)(更)(多)(税)(收)(。  社)(科)(院)(财)(经)(战)(略)(研)(究)(院)(财)(政)(研)(究)(室)(主)(任)(杨)(志)(勇)(表)(示)(,营)(改)(增)(会)(带)(来)(一)(定)(的)(减)(税)(。个)(税)(、企)(业)(所)(得)(税)(还)(有)(减)(税)(空)(间)(。以)(前)(出)(台)(的)(优)(惠)(政)(策)(,2015年)(还)(可)(以)(将)(这)(些)(优)(惠)(覆)(盖)(的)(范)(围)(进)(一)(步)(扩)(大)(,惠)(及)(更)(多)(企)(业)(。  虽)(然)(未)(必)(会)(出)(台)(针)(对)(某)(个)(具)(体)(税)(种)(的)(减)(税)(,但)(继)(续)(减)(免)(或)(取)(消)(行)(政)(事)(业)(性)(收)(费)(,仍)(然)(是)(可)(以)(期)(待)(的)(。再)(者)(,通)(过)(预)(算)(管)(理)(制)(度)(改)(进)(,唤)(醒)(沉)(淀)(的)(财)(政)(资)(金)(,能)(使)(积)(极)(的)(财)(政)(政)(策)(更)(能)(发)(挥)(效)(益)(。  2014年)(财)(税)(改)(革)(动)(作)(频)(频)(,但)(很)(多)(改)(革)(落)(实)(情)(况)(,还)(要)(看)(2015年)(的)(具)(体)(实)(施)(,如)(新)(预)(算)(法)(的)(实)(施)(,目)(前)(预)(算)(法)(实)(施)(条)(例)(尚)(未)(出)(台)(,使)(得)(新)(预)(算)(法)(的)(落)(实)(存)(在)(一)(定)(弹)(性)(空)(间)(。外)(界)(较)(关)(心)(的)(诸)(如)(对)(地)(方)(债)(的)(规)(范)(,如)(地)(方)(政)(府)(举)(债)(限)(额)(、一)(般)(债)(券)(和)(专)(项)(债)(券)(具)(体)(操)(作)(方)(式)(等)(,还)(有)(待)(政)(策)(进)(一)(步)(明)(确)(。  “地)(方)(债)(的)(问)(题)(国)(务)(院)(文)(件)(已)(经)(作)(出)(规)(定)(,预)(算)(法)(中)(也)(做)(出)(了)(规)(定)(。2015年)(需)(由)(国)(务)(院)(报)(全)(国)(人)(大)(审)(议)(通)(过)(后)(才)(知)(道)(。地)(方)(债)(的)(规)(模)(不)(会)(缩)(小)(。”财)(政)(部)(财)(政)(科)(学)(研)(究)(所)(所)(长)(刘)(尚)(希)(表)(示)(。  虽)(经)(过)(2014年)(年)(末)(对)(地)(方)(债)(的)(分)(类)(甄)(别)(,新)(预)(算)(法)(也)(将)(对)(地)(方)(债)(的)(管)(理)(,提)(出)(更)(具)(体)(的)(要)(求)(,但)(地)(方)(债)(仍)(存)(在)(一)(定)(风)(险)(。那)(些)(受)(经)(济)(周)(期)(波)(动)(影)(响)(较)(大)(,进)(而)(对)(地)(方)(财)(政)(收)(入)(影)(响)(较)(大)(的)(省)(份)(,如)(煤)(炭)(石)(油)(资)(源)(省)(份)(的)(山)(西)(、陕)(西)(、内)(蒙)(古)(,这)(块)(风)(险)(可)(能)(会)(加)(大)(;另)(外)(,房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(深)(度)(调)(整)(,也)(会)(加)(剧)(部)(分)(地)(区)(的)(风)(险)(暴)(露)(;再)(者)(,或)(有)(债)(务)(因)(为)(存)(在)(诸)(多)(不)(确)(定)(性)(因)(素)(,相)(较)(政)(府)(直)(接)(承)(担)(偿)(还)(责)(任)(的)(债)(务)(而)(言)(,风)(险)(较)(大)(。  2015年)(财)(税)(改)(革)(方)(面)(,预)(算)(管)(理)(制)(度)(改)(革)(和)(税)(制)(改)(革)(仍)(会)(有)(动)(作)(。如)(何)(进)(一)(步)(提)(高)(预)(算)(公)(开)(透)(明)(度)(以)(及)(跨)(年)(度)(预)(算)(编)(制)(等)(,都)(有)(待)(落)(到)(实)(处)(。具)(体)(税)(制)(改)(革)(方)(面)(,营)(改)(增)(将)(覆)(盖)(到)(全)(行)(业)(,资)(源)(税)(也)(会)(进)(一)(步)(扩)(围)(,消)(费)(税)(也)(会)(进)(一)(步)(调)(整)(。但)(房)(地)(产)(税)(方)(面)(,不)(同)(专)(家)(有)(不)(同)(看)(法)(,有)(专)(家)(认)(为)(按)(照)(财)(税)(改)(革)(时)(间)(表)(来)(看)(,2015年)(房)(地)(产)(税)(方)(案)(有)(望)(提)(交)(全)(国)(人)(大)(,但)(也)(有)(专)(家)(表)(示)(房)(地)(产)(税)(尚)(有)(很)(多)(问)(题)(没)(解)(决)(,还)(需)(进)(一)(步)(研)(究)(讨)(论)(。  对)(于)(2015年)(财)(税)(改)(革)(可)(能)(的)(亮)(点)(,刘)(尚)(希)(认)(为)(,资)(源)(税)(、消)(费)(税)(还)(没)(有)(明)(确)(通)(过)(全)(国)(人)(大)(来)(推)(进)(改)(革)(;环)(境)(税)(要)(通)(过)(人)(大)(立)(法)(来)(推)(进)(改)(革)(。个)(税)(现)(在)(已)(经)(形)(成)(法)(律)(,需)(要)(通)(过)(修)(法)(来)(改)(,更)(为)(复)(杂)(。环)(境)(税)(和)(房)(地)(产)(税)(2015年)(是)(否)(能)(出)(台)(还)(是)(个)(问)(题)(,这)(取)(决)(于)(立)(法)(的)(进)(程)(。点)(击)(进)(入)(【股)(友)(会)(】参)(与)(讨)(论)(
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