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中国央行和美联储互动会越来越多(图)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月23日 04:11:51
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意彩谁是总代理平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ【3512770174】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。中国央行和美联储互动会越来越多(图)

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(  美)(联)(储)(是)(否)(会)(在)(9月)(加)(息)(,这)(一)(备)(受)(投)(资)(者)(关)(注)(的)(问)(题)(将)(在)(当)(地)(时)(间)(18日)(揭)(开)(谜)(底)(。而)(此)(时)(恰)(逢)(中)(国)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(,新)(兴)(市)(场)(资)(本)(大)(量)(外)(流)(,世)(界)(经)(济)(的)(走)(向)(阴)(晴)(不)(定)(。  美)(联)(储)(最)(终)(会)(作)(出)(何)(种)(决)(定)(?中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(前)(景)(又)(会)(走)(向)(何)(方)(?近)(日)(,第)(一)(财)(经)(记)(者)(邀)(请)(了)(前)(纽)(约)(美)(联)(储)(副)(主)(席)(、现)(瑞)(士)(信)(贷)(公)(司)(的)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(尼)(尔)(·索)(斯)((NealSoss)以)(及)(在)(中)(国)(A股)(市)(场)(仍)(有)(投)(资)(的)(博)(茂)(集)(团)((世)(界)(最)(大)(的)(对)(冲)(基)(金)(公)(司)(之)(一)()主)(席)(兼)(首)(席)(执)(行)(官)(艾)(萨)(克)(·苏)(埃)(德)((IsaacR.Souede)把)(脉)(世)(界)(经)(济)(的)(走)(向)(。9月)(加)(息)(可)(能)(性)(不)(大)(  第)(一)(财)(经)(:考)(虑)(到)(当)(前)(全)(球)(经)(济)(相)(对)(较)(大)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,美)(联)(储)(会)(在)(9月)(宣)(布)(加)(息)(吗)(?  索)(斯)(:我)(认)(为)(这)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(取)(决)(于)(全)(球)(金)(融)(市)(场)(是)(否)(稳)(定)(。美)(联)(储)(过)(去)(仅)(根)(据)(美)(国)(的)(经)(济)(情)(况)(决)(定)(是)(否)(加)(息)(,但)(是)(也)(有)(其)(他)(需)(要)(考)(虑)(的)(因)(素)(,比)(如)(金)(融)(市)(场)(的)(波)(动)(。所)(以)(如)(果)(全)(球)(金)(融)(市)(场)(的)(情)(况)(较)(为)(稳)(定)(,美)(联)(储)(可)(能)(会)(做)(出)(加)(息)(的)(决)(策)(;如)(果)(不)(稳)(定)(,美)(联)(储)(可)(能)(会)(需)(要)(更)(长)(时)(间)(来)(决)(定)(是)(否)(加)(息)(。目)(前)(来)(看)(9月)(加)(息)(的)(可)(能)(性)(不)(大)(。  苏)(埃)(德)(:美)(联)(储)(很)(早)(就)(放)(风)(要)(加)(息)(,所)(以)(其)(初)(衷)(是)(希)(望)(加)(息)(的)(。美)(国)(经)(济)(目)(前)(的)(年)(增)(长)(率)(为)(2.5%,通)(胀)(率)(非)(常)(低)(,为)(1.1%。在)(这)(一)(背)(景)(下)(,美)(联)(储)(会)(加)(息)(。但)(考)(虑)(到)(全)(球)(经)(济)(、新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(、日)(本)(和)(欧)(洲)(,美)(联)(储)(需)(要)(十)(分)(谨)(慎)(。  当)(然)(,不)(是)(完)(全)(不)(加)(息)(,只)(是)(要)(明)(确)(这)(是)(一)(个)(渐)(进)(的)(过)(程)(。如)(果)(美)(联)(储)(明)(确)(会)(渐)(进)(地)(加)(息)(,那)(么)(加)(息)(比)(不)(加)(好)(。我)(认)(为)(,9月)(加)(息)(的)(概)(率)(是)(30%,12月)(的)(概)(率)(是)(40%,明)(年)(的)(概)(率)(是)(50%。但)(是)(他)(们)(应)(该)(停)(止)(市)(场)(的)(各)(种)(猜)(测)(,明)(确)(向)(市)(场)(传)(达)(“会)(渐)(进)(地)(加)(息)(”。有)(一)(点)(是)(一)(定)(的)(,就)(是)(中)(国)(央)(行)(和)(美)(联)(储)(之)(间)(的)(互)(动)(会)(越)(来)(越)(多)(。  第)(一)(财)(经)(:美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(是)(否)(主)(要)(依)(据)(美)(国)(经)(济)(情)(况)(?  苏)(埃)(德)(:以)(前)(是)(这)(样)(,但)(是)(现)(在)(是)(全)(球)(经)(济)(。当)(你)(看)(耶)(伦)((美)(联)(储)(主)(席)()的)(言)(论)(和)(著)(作)(时)(,很)(清)(楚)(地)(体)(现)(了)(他)(们)(对)(全)(球)(经)(济)(的)(考)(虑)(。如)(果)(只)(考)(虑)(美)(国)(经)(济)(,现)(在)(应)(该)(加)(息)(。但)(是)(事)(实)(是)(现)(在)(没)(有)(加)(息)(,他)(们)(还)(在)(考)(虑)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,这)(可)(能)(与)(全)(球)(经)(济)(情)(况)(、与)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(的)(影)(响)(相)(关)(。  索)(斯)(:我)(认)(为)(美)(联)(储)(会)(合)(适)(地)(看)(待)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,他)(们)(的)(法)(定)(义)(务)(是)(管)(理)(好)(美)(国)(的)(货)(币)(经)(济)(。我)(不)(认)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(会)(对)(美)(国)(经)(济)(造)(成)(极)(大)(的)(影)(响)(。中)(美)(都)(根)(据)(自)(身)(的)(情)(况)(制)(定)(经)(济)(政)(策)(。  对)(中)(国)(股)(市)(仍)(有)(信)(心)(  第)(一)(财)(经)(:近)(期)(全)(球)(金)(融)(市)(场)(起)(伏)(跌)(宕)(,这)(引)(发)(了)(人)(们)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(及)(其)(对)(美)(国)(经)(济)(影)(响)(的)(担)(忧)(,你)(怎)(么)(看)(待)(这)(个)(问)(题)(?  苏)(埃)(德)(:这)(不)(仅)(仅)(是)(中)(国)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(所)(造)(成)(的)(,美)(股)(本)(来)(就)(已)(经)(被)(高)(估)(。中)(国)(在)(经)(历)(从)(投)(资)(驱)(动)(向)(消)(费)(驱)(动)(的)(经)(济)(模)(式)(的)(转)(变)(。目)(前)(消)(费)(占)(中)(国)(GDP的)(比)(例)(差)(不)(多)(37%,如)(果)(这)(个)(数)(字)(要)(达)(到)(50%以)(上)(,可)(能)(需)(要)(20年)(左)(右)(。现)(在)(我)(们)(看)(到)(中)(国)(政)(府)(允)(许)(人)(民)(币)(轻)(微)(贬)(值)(,在)(其)(看)(来)(,达)(到)(50%需)(要)(比)(20年)(更)(长)(的)(时)(间)(。但)(是)(从)(长)(期)(来)(看)(,转)(变)(经)(济)(发)(展)(模)(式)(是)(有)(必)(要)(的)(,这)(将)(是)(一)(个)(全)(新)(的)(、长)(期)(的)(过)(程)(,因)(此)(我)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(、产)(能)(过)(剩)(等)(问)(题)(并)(不)(惊)(讶)(。重)(新)(平)(衡)(是)(一)(个)(长)(期)(的)(过)(程)(,但)(是)(我)(有)(信)(心)(中)(国)(最)(终)(将)(完)(成)(转)(型)(。当)(你)(尝)(试)(有)(规)(划)(地)(改)(变)(一)(个)(规)(模)(10万)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(经)(济)(体)(时)(,一)(定)(会)(遇)(到)(很)(多)(困)(难)(,需)(要)(很)(长)(时)(间)(。  就)(中)(国)(股)(市)(而)(言)(,我)(对)(市)(场)(的)(大)(跌)(不)(惊)(讶)(,当)(然)(它)(因)(太)(多)(的)(融)(资)(融)(券)(所)(放)(大)(。我)(认)(为)(正)(常)(的)(跌)(幅)(在)(20%~30%,随)(着)(时)(间)(变)(化)(,市)(场)(会)(在)(4000点)(时)(达)(到)(稳)(定)(,这)(会)(是)(比)(较)(合)(理)(的)(正)(常)(的)(市)(盈)(率)(和)(价)(格)(。在)(接)(下)(来)(的)(1~2年)(内)(,我)(们)(将)(看)(到)(中)(国)(的)(股)(市)(趋)(于)(稳)(定)(。  第)(一)(财)(经)(:你)(的)(公)(司)(在)(A股)(仍)(有)(投)(资)(?  苏)(埃)(德)(:是)(的)(。  第)(一)(财)(经)(:你)(对)(中)(国)(金)(融)(市)(场)(和)(经)(济)(仍)(有)(信)(心)(?  苏)(埃)(德)(:我)(们)(是)(在)(上)(证)(指)(数)(1800点)(的)(时)(候)(进)(入)(的)(,到)(4000多)(点)(时)(没)(有)(撤)(出)(,在)(中)(国)(香)(港)(经)(济)(此)(前)(不)(景)(气)(的)(时)(候)(,我)(们)(也)(没)(有)(撤)(出)(。我)(期)(待)(市)(场)(会)(在)(近)(期)(稳)(定)(。  中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(是)(转)(型)(需)(要)(  第)(一)(财)(经)(:目)(前)(中)(国)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(,很)(多)(人)(认)(为)(中)(国)(这)(次)(不)(可)(避)(免)(地)(要)(硬)(着)(陆)(。你)(认)(同)(吗)(?  索)(斯)(:我)(认)(为)(中)(国)(的)(发)(展)(可)(能)(有)(些)(结)(构)(上)(的)(问)(题)(需)(要)(处)(理)(,比)(如)(人)(口)(问)(题)(。中)(国)(长)(期)(以)(来)(保)(持)(了)(极)(高)(的)(增)(速)(,非)(常)(成)(功)(。这)(使)(得)(中)(国)(如)(今)(成)(为)(世)(界)(经)(济)(中)(非)(常)(重)(要)(的)(一)(个)(组)(成)(部)(分)(,同)(时)(也)(使)(得)(追)(求)(更)(高)(的)(增)(速)(变)(得)(困)(难)(,所)(以)(增)(速)(相)(对)(减)(缓)(是)(正)(常)(的)(。在)(此)(过)(程)(中)(,中)(国)(可)(能)(会)(遇)(到)(许)(多)(问)(题)(。但)(是)(我)(个)(人)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(和)(经)(济)(政)(策)(有)(信)(心)(。增)(速)(放)(缓)(是)(事)(实)(,但)(是)(不)(至)(于)(崩)(溃)(。  第)(一)(财)(经)(:中)(国)(的)(出)(口)(在)(今)(年)(7、8月)(两)(个)(月)(连)(续)(出)(现)(下)(降)(。这)(会)(令)(人)(不)(安)(吗)(?  苏)(埃)(德)(:世)(界)(经)(济)(的)(需)(求)(有)(限)(。另)(外)(,中)(国)(从)(战)(略)(角)(度)(,希)(望)(转)(变)(经)(济)(发)(展)(模)(式)(,从)(投)(资)(拉)(动)(经)(济)(转)(化)(为)(消)(费)(驱)(动)(,所)(以)(我)(不)(担)(心)(外)(贸)(出)(口)(。  对)(于)(中)(国)(,策)(略)(性)(地)(来)(看)(,除)(了)(要)(看)(制)(造)(业)(,还)(要)(看)(服)(务)(业)(。那)(些)(对)(中)(国)(不)(看)(好)(的)(人)(只)(盯)(着)(中)(国)(的)(制)(造)(业)(,会)(得)(出)(中)(国)(经)(济)(问)(题)(很)(严)(重)(的)(结)(论)(。但)(是)(中)(国)(经)(济)(正)(经)(历)(从)(制)(造)(业)(向)(消)(费)(的)(巨)(大)(转)(变)(,在)(未)(来)(2~3年)(内)(7%的)(增)(长)(率)(对)(一)(个)(正)(在)(转)(型)(的)(经)(济)(体)(来)(说)(很)(正)(常)(。  第)(一)(财)(经)(:也)(会)(更)(健)(康)(,是)(吗)(?  苏)(埃)(德)(:绝)(对)(的)(。对)(中)(国)(来)(说)(,在)(出)(口)(、投)(资)(和)(消)(费)(之)(间)(取)(得)(平)(衡)(是)(非)(常)(重)(要)(的)(。但)(这)(会)(是)(一)(个)(非)(常)(漫)(长)(的)(过)(程)(,估)(计)(是)(20年)(左)(右)(。另)(一)(个)(需)(要)(考)(虑)(的)(是)(固)(定)(收)(益)(。随)(着)(时)(间)(流)(逝)(,准)(备)(金)(比)(率)(会)(继)(续)(下)(降)(,人)(们)(会)(期)(待)(中)(国)(有)(更)(低)(的)(利)(率)(,使)(在)(中)(国)(的)(固)(定)(收)(益)(投)(资)(变)(得)(更)(加)(有)(吸)(引)(力)(。  第)(一)(财)(经)(:中)(国)(庞)(大)(的)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(是)(非)(常)(重)(要)(的)(调)(节)(经)(济)(的)(手)(段)(。但)(是)(上)(月)(央)(行)(宣)(布)(允)(许)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(后)(,8月)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(下)(降)(了)(93.9亿)(美)(元)(。你)(认)(为)(资)(本)(流)(出)(会)(继)(续)(吗)(?这)(对)(于)(中)(国)(经)(济)(会)(是)(一)(个)(问)(题)(吗)(?  苏)(埃)(德)(:目)(前)(中)(国)(政)(府)(有)(足)(够)(的)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(来)(调)(节)(经)(济)(,这)(是)(经)(济)(转)(型)(非)(常)(重)(要)(的)(工)(具)(。所)(以)(中)(国)(可)(能)(需)(要)(更)(小)(心)(地)(运)(用)(这)(些)(资)(本)(。3.5万)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(是)(一)(个)(巨)(大)(的)(数)(字)(,这)(就)(使)(得)(中)(国)(和)(巴)(西)(面)(临)(的)(情)(况)(非)(常)(不)(同)(。中)(国)(有)(这)(样)(的)(一)(个)(缓)(冲)(,而)(巴)(西)(则)(非)(常)(困)(难)(。  目)(前)(,资)(本)(外)(流)(的)(情)(况)(可)(能)(会)(使)(政)(府)(更)(小)(心)(地)(考)(虑)(把)(外)(汇)(花)(在)(哪)(些)(方)(面)(,但)(是)(对)(于)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(的)(规)(模)(我)(是)(不)(担)(心)(的)(。  新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(黄)(金)(时)(代)(已)(过)(  第)(一)(财)(经)(:伴)(随)(着)(中)(国)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(以)(及)(资)(本)(从)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(大)(规)(模)(流)(出)(,有)(人)(认)(为)(属)(于)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(的)(黄)(金)(时)(代)(已)(经)(结)(束)(了)(,你)(怎)(么)(看)(?  索)(斯)(:我)(觉)(得)(有)(一)(定)(的)(道)(理)(。新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(不)(再)(那)(么)(“新)(兴)(”,因)(为)(它)(们)(已)(经)(在)(世)(界)(经)(济)(中)(占)(据)(了)(很)(大)(一)(部)(分)(。中)(国)(的)(第)(二)(产)(业)(规)(模)(已)(经)(超)(过)(了)(美)(国)(,要)(实)(现)(更)(快)(的)(增)(长)(是)(十)(分)(困)(难)(的)(。而)(这)(种)(增)(速)(的)(放)(缓)(是)(自)(然)(的)(。  资)(本)(从)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(流)(出)(是)(对)(重)(新)(平)(衡)(全)(球)(金)(融)(资)(本)(的)(一)(个)(反)(映)(。当)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(快)(速)(增)(长)(时)(,资)(本)(流)(入)(使)(它)(们)(发)(展)(壮)(大)(,但)(是)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(现)(在)(已)(经)(达)(到)(了)(一)(定)(规)(模)(,不)(再)(有)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,资)(本)(流)(出)(也)(是)(必)(然)(的)(。  第)(一)(财)(经)(:所)(以)(你)(认)(为)(我)(们)(对)(此)(不)(必)(惊)(慌)(,这)(是)(正)(常)(的)(现)(象)(。  索)(斯)(:是)(的)(,不)(必)(惊)(慌)(,恐)(慌)(通)(常)(不)(会)(带)(来)(好)(结)(果)(。  第)(一)(财)(经)(:因)(为)(之)(前)(金)(融)(市)(场)(的)(动)(荡)(,人)(们)(开)(始)(对)(美)(国)(经)(济)(产)(生)(质)(疑)(和)(担)(忧)(。美)(国)(失)(业)(率)(等)(数)(据)(看)(起)(来)(都)(不)(错)(,但)(是)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(真)(实)(情)(况)(如)(何)(呢)(?  索)(斯)(:我)(觉)(得)(从)(经)(济)(周)(期)(上)(来)(看)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(达)(到)(了)(预)(期)(。美)(国)(的)(经)(济)(增)(速)(可)(能)(比)(过)(去)(要)(低)(,但)(是)(失)(业)(率)(的)(下)(降)(证)(明)(我)(们)(做)(得)(还)(不)(错)(。从)(长)(期)(结)(构)(来)(看)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(也)(存)(在)(其)(他)(国)(家)(所)(面)(临)(的)(问)(题)(,这)(些)(问)(题)(与)(人)(口)(老)(龄)(化)(密)(切)(相)(关)(。人)(口)(老)(龄)(化)(对)(于)(中)(国)(来)(说)(也)(是)(一)(个)(重)(要)(的)(问)(题)(。很)(多)(国)(家)(都)(有)(这)(样)(的)(问)(题)(,我)(不)(确)(定)(这)(个)(问)(题)(是)(否)(会)(显)(著)(地)(削)(弱)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(积)(极)(影)(响)(。  苏)(埃)(德)(:我)(认)(为)(美)(国)(经)(济)(不)(算)(极)(好)(,但)(是)(比)(较)(正)(常)(。消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(指)(数)(还)(不)(错)(,增)(长)(率)(也)(还)(行)(,就)(业)(率)(也)(不)(错)(,最)(低)(工)(资)(也)(涨)(了)(不)(少)(,但)(维)(持)(美)(国)(经)(济)(活)(力)(的)(关)(键)(是)(生)(产)(率)(。生)(产)(率)(提)(高)(,工)(资)(才)(会)(提)(高)(。美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(健)(康)(发)(展)(需)(要)(生)(产)(率)(在)(未)(来)(18~24个)(月)(中)(达)(到)(1.5%,而)(现)(在)(只)(有)(0.7%。有)(些)(人)(对)(此)(有)(一)(些)(担)(忧)(,认)(为)(生)(产)(率)(很)(难)(上)(升)(。而)(另)(一)(些)(人)(认)(为)(,生)(产)(率)(是)(有)(周)(期)(的)(,随)(着)(经)(济)(的)(进)(一)(步)(好)(转)(会)(继)(续)(上)(升)(。  第)(一)(财)(经)(:在)(全)(球)(金)(融)(市)(场)(恐)(慌)(时)(,有)(种)(说)(法)(是)(因)(为)(金)(融)(危)(机)(有)(七)(年)(周)(期)(,从)(2008年)(发)(生)(的)(金)(融)(危)(机)(到)(现)(在)(2015年)(,已)(经)(过)(了)(7年)(,我)(们)(可)(能)(会)(出)(现)(另)(一)(次)(金)(融)(危)(机)(。你)(如)(何)(看)(待)(这)(种)(观)(点)(?  苏)(埃)(德)(:这)(种)(说)(法)(不)(靠)(谱)(。我)(不)(认)(为)(未)(来)(2~3年)(内)(美)(国)(会)(出)(现)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(。美)(国)(经)(济)(还)(没)(有)(恢)(复)(到)(正)(常)(的)(阶)(段)(。经)(济)(恢)(复)(正)(常)(之)(后)(才)(会)(面)(临)(经)(济)(下)(行)(的)(问)(题)(。我)(个)(人)(认)(为)(,如)(果)(管)(理)(妥)(善)(,美)(国)(需)(要)(至)(少)(2~4年)(的)(时)(间)(恢)(复)(。在)(真)(正)(的)(危)(机)(到)(来)(之)(前)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(仍)(然)(有)(上)(升)(的)(空)(间)(。  索)(斯)(:我)(觉)(得)(这)(种)(理)(论)(有)(些)(过)(于)(简)(单)(。从)(经)(济)(周)(期)(来)(看)(,美)(国)(仍)(然)(处)(于)(攀)(升)(的)(阶)(段)(。
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