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关注房地产复苏中的“虹吸现象”(图)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年02月27日 06:56:02
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腾讯5分彩任选二玩法平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ/微信【421618535】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。关注房地产复苏中的“虹吸现象”(图)

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(刘)(元)(春)(  中)(国)(人)(民)(大)(学)(国)(家)(战)(略)(与)(发)(展)(研)(究)(院)(执)(行)(院)(长)(刘)(元)(春)(  房)(地)(产)(将)(出)(现)(全)(面)(的)(复)(苏)(已)(成)(为)(业)(界)(的)(共)(识)(。因)(为)(自)(3·30房)(地)(产)(新)(政)(以)(来)(,房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(数)(据)(和)(价)(格)(数)(据)(都)(在)(持)(续)(回)(升)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(价)(量)(齐)(升)(,呈)(现)(出)(火)(爆)(的)(态)(势)(。但)(这)(种)(共)(识)(是)(否)(成)(立)(呢)(?一)(旦)(这)(种)(共)(识)(不)(成)(立)(,现)(有)(的)(政)(策)(措)(施)(存)(在)(着)(系)(统)(性)(的)(偏)(误)(,导)(致)(今)(年)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(复)(苏)(的)(夭)(折)(,这)(将)(是)(中)(国)(经)(济)(难)(以)(承)(受)(之)(重)(。因)(为)(房)(地)(产)(的)(增)(加)(值)(占)(GDP的)(6%-7%,加)(上)(直)(接)(关)(联)(的)(行)(业)(增)(加)(值)((例)(如)(建)(筑)(业)()占)(GDP的)(28%,房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(占)(城)(镇)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(19%-21%,房)(地)(产)(各)(类)(贷)(款)(占)(全)(社)(会)(贷)(款)(的)(20%左)(右)(,房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(占)(GDP的)(23%左)(右)(,而)(房)(地)(产)(占)(居)(民)(财)(富)(70%左)(右)(,这)(些)(参)(数)(决)(定)(了)(房)(地)(产)(的)(复)(苏)(进)(程)(将)(直)(接)(左)(右)(中)(国)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(的)(未)(来)(。因)(此)(,深)(入)(审)(视)(目)(前)(房)(地)(产)(复)(苏)(的)(性)(质)(十)(分)(必)(要)(。  一)(、总)(体)(而)(言)(,房)(地)(产)(复)(苏)(依)(然)(脆)(弱)(  1.销)(售)(虽)(然)(有)(所)(回)(升)(,但)(去)(库)(存)(的)(压)(力)(总)(体)(没)(有)(缓)(解)(。1-6月)(份)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(同)(比)(增)(长)(3.9%,比)(1-5月)(份)(增)(速)(上)(扬)(了)(4.1个)(百)(分)(点)(;商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(额)(增)(长)(10.0%,增)(速)(提)(高)(6.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。但)(与)(此)(同)(时)(,全)(国)(6月)(末)(,商)(品)(房)(待)(售)(面)(积)(同)(比)(增)(长)(20.8%,总)(面)(积)(达)(到)(65738万)(平)(方)(米)(,这)(导)(致)(全)(国)(房)(地)(产)(去)(化)(周)(期)(提)(高)(了)(接)(近)(15%左)(右)(。  2.资)(金)(回)(笼)(状)(况)(有)(所)(改)(善)(,但)(总)(体)(资)(金)(面)(依)(然)(十)(分)(紧)(张)(。1-6月)(房)(地)(产)(总)(体)(资)(金)(来)(源)(同)(比)(增)(长)(了)(2.8%,实)(际)(到)(位)(资)(金)(同)(比)(增)(长)(0.1%,改)(变)(了)(今)(年)(一)(季)(度)(下)(滑)(的)(局)(面)(,但)(是)(1-6月)(应)(付)(款)(同)(比)(增)(长)(了)(16.4%,而)(这)(些)(应)(付)(款)(46%不)(是)(用)(于)(工)(程)(款)(项)(。因)(此)(,资)(金)(缺)(口)(和)(财)(务)(成)(本)(依)(然)(较)(为)(紧)(张)(。  3.在)(库)(存)(和)(资)(金)(的)(压)(力)(下)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(开)(发)(进)(度)(并)(没)(有)(复)(苏)(,依)(然)(处)(于)(十)(分)(低)(迷)(的)(状)(态)(。1-6月)(新)(开)(工)(面)(积)(同)(比)(下)(降)(了)(15.8%,竣)(工)(面)(积)(下)(降)(13.8%,与)(过)(去)(3个)(季)(度)(的)(平)(均)(水)(平)(差)(不)(多)(,都)(处)(于)(低)(迷)(状)(态)(。更)(为)(重)(要)(的)(是)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(投)(资)(完)(成)(额)(、计)(划)(投)(资)(数)(、土)(地)(购)(置)(面)(积)(的)(增)(长)(速)(度)(依)(然)(处)(于)(持)(续)(下)(滑)(的)(通)(道)(之)(中)(,没)(有)(趋)(缓)(的)(迹)(象)(。例)(如)(土)(地)(购)(置)(面)(积)(1-6月)(累)(计)(同)(比)(速)(度)(为)(-33.8%,比)(一)(季)(度)(下)(滑)(了)(1.4个)(百)(分)(点)(,比)(去)(年)(同)(期)(下)(滑)(了)(28个)(百)(分)(点)(。  二)(、脆)(弱)(复)(苏)(中)(的)(加)(速)(分)(化)(可)(能)(带)(来)(严)(重)(的)(“虹)(吸)(现)(象)(”  在)(总)(体)(复)(苏)(脆)(弱)(的)(局)(面)(下)(,房)(地)(产)(所)(呈)(现)(的)(加)(速)(性)(分)(化)(可)(能)(是)(3-4季)(度)(面)(临)(的)(最)(大)(问)(题)(。一)(是)(以)(深)(圳)(北)(京)(为)(首)(的)(一)(线)(城)(市)(出)(现)(暴)(涨)(的)(局)(面)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(加)(速)(向)(一)(线)(城)(市)(进)(行)(布)(局)(;二)(是)(三)(线)(城)(市)(出)(现)(的)(持)(续)(加)(速)(性)(的)(下)(滑)(,三)(是)(大)(型)(房)(地)(产)(商)(在)(全)(国)(布)(局)(调)(整)(中)(出)(现)(业)(绩)(全)(面)(改)(善)(,但)(另)(一)(方)(面)(使)(小)(房)(地)(产)(商)(固)(化)(在)(三)(线)(城)(市)(业)(绩)(出)(现)(加)(速)(性)(的)(恶)(化)(。例)(如)(深)(圳)(6月)(房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(同)(比)(上)(涨)(接)(近)(20%,而)(很)(多)(三)(线)(城)(市)(价)(格)(同)(比)(下)(滑)(接)(近)(20%;一)(线)(城)(市)(库)(存)(同)(比)(下)(降)(了)(2%,而)(三)(线)(城)(市)(库)(存)(同)(比)(上)(扬)(了)(接)(近)(6%。分)(化)(中)(复)(苏)(一)(般)(是)(一)(种)(常)(态)(,但)(比)(较)(本)(轮)(与)(上)(几)(轮)(房)(地)(产)(复)(苏)(的)(指)(标)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,本)(轮)(分)(化)(的)(程)(度)(大)(大)(超)(越)(以)(往)(。这)(种)(强)(劲)(的)(分)(化)(可)(能)(带)(来)(的)(结)(果)(是)(:1)出)(现)(强)(劲)(的)(“虹)(吸)(现)(象)(”,即)(大)(量)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(将)(重)(新)(布)(局)(开)(发)(战)(略)(,加)(速)(各)(类)(开)(发)(性)(资)(金)(向)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(集)(聚)(;2)在)(户)(籍)(制)(度)(改)(革)(的)(推)(动)(下)(,很)(多)(投)(资)(性)(和)(改)(善)(性)(需)(求)(将)(进)(一)(步)(向)(一)(、二)(线)(城)(市)(转)(移)(;3)三)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(将)(进)(一)(步)(萧)(条)(,而)(不)(是)(在)(一)(、二)(线)(复)(苏)(的)(带)(动)(下)(出)(现)(跟)(随)(性)(复)(苏)(;4)小)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(将)(出)(现)(倒)(闭)(潮)(、部)(分)(县)(级)(财)(政)(的)(困)(难)(将)(进)(一)(步)(加)(剧)(,从)(而)(引)(发)(局)(部)(的)(金)(融)(风)(险)(;5)在)(目)(前)(资)(金)(链)(十)(分)(紧)(张)(,企)(业)(债)(务)(率)(高)(企)(的)(状)(况)(下)(,局)(部)(资)(金)(链)(的)(紧)(张)(或)(金)(融)(风)(险)(的)(显)(化)(很)(可)(能)(引)(发)(全)(局)(的)(问)(题)(。  三)(、避)(免)(“虹)(吸)(现)(象)(”需)(要)(调)(整)(目)(前)(的)(房)(地)(产)(政)(策)(  因)(此)(,脆)(弱)(中)(加)(速)(分)(化)(的)(复)(苏)(存)(在)(着)(巨)(大)(的)(变)(数)(。一)(线)(城)(市)(在)(三)(线)(城)(市)(过)(度)(低)(迷)(的)(情)(况)(出)(现)(暴)(涨)(,不)(仅)(会)(诱)(发)(局)(部)(泡)(沫)(问)(题)(,更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(这)(种)(暴)(涨)(将)(通)(过)(“虹)(吸)(现)(象)(”带)(来)(三)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(出)(现)(崩)(盘)(的)(可)(能)(,从)(而)(诱)(发)(全)(局)(性)(的)(问)(题)(。因)(此)(,对)(于)(中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(调)(控)(必)(须)(改)(变)(当)(前)(简)(单)(宽)(松)(的)(导)(向)(,必)(须)(针)(对)(不)(同)(区)(域)(采)(取)(不)(同)(的)(治)(理)(。一)(是)(对)(于)(一)(线)(城)(市)(必)(须)(进)(行)(适)(度)(控)(制)(,防)(止)(价)(格)(过)(度)(上)(涨)(;二)(是)(对)(于)(三)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(扶)(持)(应)(当)(强)(化)(,特)(别)(是)(可)(以)(出)(台)(一)(些)(超)(常)(规)(的)(政)(策)(,例)(如)(加)(大)(县)(级)(政)(府)(的)(财)(政)(支)(持)(,甚)(至)(建)(立)(专)(项)(基)(金)(,鼓)(励)(地)(方)(政)(府)(收)(购)(商)(品)(房)(转)(用)(于)(保)(障)(性)(用)(房)(;三)(是)(在)(监)(控)(分)(化)(指)(标)(的)(基)(础)(上)(,协)(调)(相)(应)(城)(镇)(化)(改)(革)(的)(步)(伐)(,特)(别)(是)(重)(点)(人)(口)(流)(入)(地)(和)(流)(出)(地)(改)(革)(的)(速)(度)(。房)(地)(产)(复)(苏)(调)(控)(中)(必)(须)(坚)(持)(的)(原)(则)(是)(:1)局)(部)(区)(域)(的)(快)(速)(复)(苏)(并)(不)(一)(定)(会)(产)(生)(“涓)(滴)(效)(应)(”,一)(线)(城)(市)(的)(房)(价)(暴)(涨)(可)(能)(不)(是)(复)(苏)(的)(福)(音)(;2)房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(总)(体)(快)(速)(的)(上)(扬)(也)(不)(是)(调)(控)(的)(目)(标)(,新)(一)(轮)(房)(地)(产)(总)(体)(泡)(沫)(带)(来)(的)(危)(害)(可)(能)(比)(其)(他)(泡)(沫)(和)(前)(几)(轮)(房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(的)(风)(险)(更)(大)(。  作)(者)(:刘)(元)(春)(
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