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欧市盘前:FED决议驱散白宫政治阴云,黄金多空博弈

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月24日 01:48:21
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(亚)(盘)(时)(段)(,英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(走)(弱)(,现)(报)(1.3922,跌)(幅)(0.14%。英)(国)(脱)(欧)(委)(员)(会)(表)(示)(,目)(前)(留)(给)(英)(国)(与)(欧)(盟)(达)(成)(全)(面)(协)(议)(的)(时)(间)(越)(来)(越)(少)(,应)(考)(虑)(寻)(求)(延)(长)(2019年)(的)(脱)(欧)(期)(限)(。
英)(国)(与)(欧)(盟)(的)(谈)(判)(将)(于)(10月)(结)(束)(,这)(是)(双)(方)(设)(定)(的)(最)(后)(期)(限)(。英)(国)(将)(于)(2019年)(3月)(底)(离)(开)(欧)(盟)(。英)(国)(脱)(欧)(委)(员)(会)(称)(,如)(果)(未)(来)(伙)(伴)(关)(系)(的)(实)(质)(性)(问)(题)(仍)(未)(得)(到)(解)(决)(,英)(国)(政)(府)(应)(争)(取)(更)(多)(时)(间)(,以)(确)(保)(达)(成)(一)(项)(足)(够)(详)(细)(和)(全)(面)(的)(协)(议)(。
3月)(19日)(,英)(国)(脱)(欧)(大)(臣)(戴)(维)(斯)(将)(在)(布)(鲁)(塞)(尔)(会)(见)(欧)(盟)(首)(席)(英)(国)(脱)(欧)(谈)(判)(代)(表)(巴)(尼)(耶)(。3月)(22日)(将)(开)(始)(欧)(盟)(领)(导)(人)(峰)(会)(。戴)(维)(斯)(预)(计)(,下)(周)(将)(敲)(定)(一)(项)(过)(渡)(时)(期)(的)(协)(议)(。
另)(一)(方)(面)(,英)(国)(央)(行)(将)(在)(北)(京)(时)(间)(周)(四)(20:00公)(布)(利)(率)(决)(议)(及)(会)(议)(纪)(要)(。预)(计)(英)(国)(央)(行)(此)(次)(不)(会)(加)(息)(,但)(市)(场)(将)(试)(图)(评)(估)(英)(央)(行)(是)(否)(真)(的)(热)(衷)(于)(在)(5月)(加)(息)(,并)(将)(利)(率)(提)(升)(至)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(的)(最)(高)(水)(平)(。
市)(场)(将)(对)(英)(国)(央)(行)(货)(币)(委)(员)(会)(的)(投)(票)(作)(出)(反)(应)(,随)(后)(对)(政)(策)(声)(明)(和)(会)(议)(纪)(要)(进)(行)(进)(一)(步)(消)(化)(。英)(央)(行)(行)(长)(卡)(尼)(和)(其)(他)(委)(员)(会)(委)(员)(将)(如)(何)(对)(近)(期)(数)(据)(作)(出)(反)(应)(,值)(得)(市)(场)(关)(注)(。
亚)(盘)(时)(段)(,美)(元)(兑)(日)(元)(现)(报)(105.76,跌)(幅)(0.24%。日)(本)(土)(地)(丑)(闻)(事)(件)(让)(安)(倍)(晋)(三)(在)(3月)(18日)(进)(行)(的)(四)(次)(民)(调)(中)(支)(持)(率)(都)(有)(所)(下)(降)(,其)(中)(2次)(甚)(至)(降)(至)(2012年)(上)(任)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。
据)(朝)(日)(新)(闻)(的)(一)(项)(调)(查)(显)(示)(,安)(倍)(晋)(三)(的)(支)(持)(率)(由)(上)(个)(月)(的)(44%降)(至)(31%。这)(起)(丑)(闻)(事)(件)(或)(让)(他)(在)(今)(年)(9月)(份)(自)(民)(党)(总)(裁)(选)(举)(中)(获)(胜)(的)(几)(率)(降)(低)(,而)(其)(一)(旦)(其)(获)(胜)(将)(成)(为)(在)(任)(时)(间)(最)(长)(的)(首)(相)(。
超)(过)(80%的)(朝)(日)(新)(闻)(的)(受)(访)(对)(象)(表)(示)(,安)(倍)(晋)(三)(应)(该)(对)(这)(次)(文)(件)(篡)(改)(事)(件)(承)(担)(责)(任)(。在)(询)(问)(民)(众)(是)(否)(认)(为)(安)(倍)(晋)(三)(在)(9月)(份)(的)(自)(民)(党)(总)(裁)(大)(选)(过)(后)(继)(续)(担)(任)(领)(导)(人)(,53%的)(受)(访)(者)(表)(示)(应)(该)(更)(换)(领)(导)(人)(,而)(31%的)(人)(表)(示)(应)(让)(他)(留)(下)(来)(。
此)(外)(,日)(央)(行)(持)(有)(的)(政)(府)(债)(券)(在)(去)(年)(12月)(底)(达)(到)(了)(创)(纪)(录)(的)(449万)(亿)(日)(元)((合)(4.24万)(亿)(美)(元)(),较)(去)(年)(同)(期)(增)(加)(了)(6.8%。
对)(日)(央)(行)(政)(策)(框)(架)(不)(可)(持)(续)(的)(担)(忧)(情)(绪)(有)(所)(上)(升)(。而)(稍)(早)(公)(布)(的)(日)(央)(行)(3月)(利)(率)(决)(议)(意)(见)(概)(要)(也)(提)(到)(了)(日)(央)(行)(缺)(乏)(进)(一)(步)(放)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(空)(间)(。
亚)(盘)(时)(段)(,澳)(元)(兑)(美)(元)(小)(幅)(走)(低)(,现)(报)(0.77,跌)(幅)(0.16%,延)(续)(上)(周)(四)(以)(来)(的)(跌)(势)(。北)(京)(时)(间)(08:30澳)(大)(利)(亚)(1月)(就)(业)(人)(数)(小)(幅)(增)(加)(,但)(低)(于)(前)(几)(个)(月)(的)(水)(平)(,失)(业)(率)(维)(持)(在)(5.5%。
尽)(管)(就)(业)(市)(场)(看)(起)(来)(不)(错)(,但)(政)(策)(制)(定)(者)(们)(开)(始)(对)(薪)(资)(缓)(慢)(增)(长)(和)(家)(庭)(债)(务)(高)(企)(表)(示)(担)(忧)(。劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(的)(紧)(缩)(将)(有)(助)(于)(缓)(解)(担)(忧)(情)(绪)(,并)(推)(高)(澳)(元)(。目)(前)(预)(计)(2月)(就)(业)(人)(数)(将)(增)(加)(2.03万)(,失)(业)(率)(料)(维)(持)(在)(5.5%。
澳)(元)(兑)(美)(元)(呈)(现)(疲)(软)(姿)(态)(。需)(求)(锐)(减)(或)(许)(会)(将)(澳)(元)(涨)(势)(扑)(灭)(在)(萌)(芽)(阶)(段)(。事)(实)(或)(可)(证)(明)(这)(有)(利)(于)(越)(来)(越)(看)(空)(澳)(元)(前)(景)(的)(对)(冲)(基)(金)(。
随)(着)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(最)(大)(出)(口)(商)(品)(价)(格)(暴)(跌)(,澳)(元)(在)(美)(国)(免)(除)(其)(金)(属)(关)(税)(等)(因)(素)(提)(振)(下)(2.6%的)(月)(初)(涨)(势)(几)(乎)(消)(失)(殆)(尽)(。分)(析)(师)(预)(期)(铁)(矿)(石)(价)(格)(可)(能)(进)(一)(步)(下)(跌)(,照)(此)(情)(形)(来)(看)(,今)(年)(以)(来)(在)(G-10货)(币)(中)(表)(现)(第)(二)(差)(的)(澳)(元)(势)(必)(会)(重)(启)(跌)(势)(。
亚)(盘)(时)(段)(,纽)(元)(兑)(美)(元)(现)(报)(0.7206,跌)(幅)(0.17%。新)(西)(兰)(联)(储)(将)(于)(本)(周)(四)(北)(京)(时)(间)(04:00召)(开)(利)(率)(决)(议)(,但)(其)(对)(纽)(元)(兑)(美)(元)(的)(影)(响)(将)(远)(远)(低)(于)(美)(联)(储)(决)(议)(。
预)(计)(新)(西)(兰)(联)(储)(将)(维)(持)(利)(率)(在)(1.75%不)(变)(,并)(重)(申)(纽)(元)(汇)(率)(高)(企)(,但)(不)(太)(可)(能)(直)(接)(入)(市)(干)(预)(。此)(外)(,需)(留)(意)(政)(策)(声)(明)(中)(的)(任)(何)(措)(辞)(变)(化)(将)(引)(发)(纽)(元)(震)(荡)(,但)(重)(要)(性)(不)(及)(美)(联)(储)(决)(议)(。
亚)(盘)(时)(段)(,美)(元)(兑)(加)(元)(现)(报)(1.3107,涨)(幅)(0.08%,为)(2017年)(6月)(以)(来)(的)(最)(高)(水)(平)(。由)(于)(投)(资)(者)(对)(特)(朗)(普)(可)(能)(退)(出)(《北)(美)(自)(由)(贸)(易)(协)(定)(》的)(风)(险)(表)(示)(担)(忧)(,负)(面)(影)(响)(或)(导)(致)(加)(元)(持)(续)(弱)(势)(。
加)(拿)(大)(央)(行)(行)(长)(波)(洛)(兹)(此)(前)(表)(示)(,希)(望)(看)(见)(对)(现)(有)(公)(司)(与)(新)(公)(司)(的)(投)(资)(增)(长)(,同)(时)(就)(业)(市)(场)(能)(够)(创)(造)(更)(多)(生)(产)(力)(以)(及)(更)(多)(职)(位)(。加)(拿)(大)(央)(行)(近)(期)(基)(调)(显)(示)(,对)(于)(加)(息)(的)(态)(度)(已)(不)(再)(强)(硬)(。
★原)(油)(期)(货)(方)(面)(:美)(油)(陷)(多)(空)(博)(弈)(,油)(价)(或)(波)(动)(加)(剧)(★
亚)(盘)(时)(段)(,美)(油)(交)(投)(清)(淡)(,现)(报)(62.14,跌)(幅)(0.32%,呈)(现)(小)(幅)(下)(行)(的)(走)(势)(。油)(价)(上)(周)(五)(盘)(中)(突)(然)(大)(幅)(拉)(升)(,因)(全)(球)(原)(油)(需)(求)(增)(长)(预)(期)(抵)(消)(美)(国)(增)(产)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,中)(东)(地)(区)(紧)(张)(局)(势)(升)(温)(也)(推)(动)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(。
美)(油)(上)(周)(五)(出)(现)(大)(幅)(拉)(升)(,并)(刷)(新)(自)(3月)(6日)(以)(来)(高)(点)(,至)(62.54美)(元)(。截)(至)(当)(前)(,美)(油)(交)(投)(于)(62.04一)(线)(,日)(内)(高)(点)(和)(低)(点)(于)(62.28美)(元)(和)(61.97美)(元)(。
此)(前)(,贝)(克)(休)(斯)(钻)(机)(的)(数)(量)(显)(示)(美)(石)(油)(钻)(井)(数)(增)(加)(4口)(至)(800口)(。贝)(克)(休)(斯)(数)(据)(被)(认)(为)(是)(美)(国)(原)(油)(产)(量)(的)(先)(行)(指)(标)(,钻)(机)(数)(增)(加)(预)(期)(美)(国)(产)(量)(将)(进)(一)(步)(上)(升)(。
上)(周)(油)(服)(贝)(克)(休)(斯)(公)(布)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,美)(国)(截)(至)(3月)(16日)(当)(周)(钻)(井)(总)(数)(增)(加)(6口)(,其)(中)(天)(然)(气)(钻)(井)(数)(增)(加)(1口)(,石)(油)(钻)(井)(数)(增)(加)(4口)(,混)(杂)(钻)(井)(数)(增)(加)(1口)(。
在)(汽)(油)(和)(季)(节)(性)(供)(热)(燃)(料)(需)(求)(的)(带)(动)(下)(,2月)(份)(美)(国)(原)(油)(需)(求)(量)(达)(到)(每)(天)(2030万)(桶)(。去)(年)(2月)(份)(以)(来)(,需)(求)(量)(每)(天)(增)(加)(100多)(万)(桶)(,创)(11年)(以)(来)(新)(高)(。
虽)(然)(美)(国)(原)(油)(产)(量)(创)(纪)(录)(,产)(量)(超)(过)(1000万)(桶)(/日)(,压)(制)(了)(油)(价)(的)(反)(弹)(,但)(一)(系)(列)(事)(件)(加)(重)(了)(投)(资)(者)(心)(中)(的)(不)(确)(定)(感)(,包)(括)(美)(国)(国)(务)(卿)(蒂)(勒)(森)(被)(解)(职)(、贸)(易)(战)(危)(险)(和)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(产)(量)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(的)(预)(期)(。
此)(外)(,IEA月)(报)(上)(周)(显)(示)(,委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(依)(然)(是)(OPEC最)(大)(的)(风)(险)(因)(素)(。委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(的)(产)(量)(很)(容)(易)(陷)(入)(加)(速)(下)(滑)(,在)(缺)(乏)(其)(他)(产)(油)(国)(补)(偿)(性)(措)(施)(的)(配)(合)(下)(,很)(可)(能)(成)(为)(使)(得)(油)(市)(陷)(入)(赤)(字)(的)(决)(定)(性)(因)(素)(。
★沪)(深)(两)(市)(周)(一)(收)(涨)(,金)(融)(股)(尾)(盘)(走)(强)(★
上)(证)(综)(指)(周)(一)(收)(盘)(上)(涨)(9.37点)(,涨)(幅)(0.29%,报)(3279.25点)(;
深)(证)(成)(指)(周)(一)(收)(盘)(上)(涨)(17.37点)(,涨)(幅)(0.16%,报)(11068.49点)(;
沪)(深)(300指)(数)(周)(一)(收)(盘)(上)(涨)(17.83点)(,涨)(幅)(0.44%,报)(4074.25点)(;
创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(周)(一)(收)(盘)(上)(涨)(21.60点)(,涨)(幅)(1.19%,报)(1842.92点)(。
沪)(深)(两)(市)(早)(盘)(小)(幅)(低)(开)(,周)(期)(、地)(产)(等)(板)(块)(走)(弱)(领)(跌)(,沪)(指)(盘)(初)(一)(度)(下)(挫)(,随)(后)(止)(跌)(翻)(红)(。午)(后)(,早)(盘)(走)(强)(的)(保)(险)(股)(再)(度)(上)(攻)(,银)(行)(板)(块)(亦)(有)(所)(拉)(升)(,沪)(指)(维)(持)(横)(盘)(震)(荡)(。
科)(技)(类)(板)(块)(早)(盘)(强)(势)(反)(弹)(,创)(业)(板)(指)(一)(度)(上)(涨)(超)(2%,随)(后)(回)(落)(。盘)(面)(上)(,多)(数)(板)(块)(飘)(红)(,金)(融)(股)(尾)(盘)(走)(强)(。
★贵)(金)(属)(方)(面)(:美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(预)(期)(打)(压)(金)(价)(多)(头)(★
亚)(盘)(时)(段)(,金)(价)(开)(盘)(持)(续)(走)(低)(,现)(报)(1310.05,跌)(幅)(0.32%,整)(体)(维)(持)(下)(行)(趋)(势)(。受)(美)(联)(储)(将)(在)(本)(周)(加)(息)(预)(期)(的)(影)(响)(,导)(致)(对)(特)(朗)(普)(关)(税)(及)(政)(治)(动)(荡)(的)(担)(忧)(的)(暂)(时)(被)(转)(移)(。
市)(场)(普)(遍)(预)(期)(,美)(联)(储)(本)(周)(将)(加)(息)(25个)(基)(点)(,并)(预)(计)(在)(2018年)(剩)(余)(时)(间)(内)(,至)(少)(再)(加)(息)(2次)(。联)(邦)(基)(金)(期)(货)(市)(场)(预)(计)(今)(年)(美)(联)(储)(将)(加)(息)(3次)(,加)(息)(4次)(的)(可)(能)(性)(超)(过)(30%。
需)(要)(提)(防)(的)(是)(,在)(美)(联)(储)(利)(率)(决)(议)(后)(,黄)(金)(市)(场)(仍)(有)(可)(能)(会)(出)(现)(之)(前)(几)(次)(加)(息)(后)(的)(利)(空)(出)(尽)(而)(导)(致)(空)(头)(回)(补)(情)(况)(,这)(取)(决)(于)(美)(联)(储)(利)(率)(决)(议)(前)(市)(场)(对)(预)(期)(的)(消)(化)(情)(况)(和)(鲍)(威)(尔)(措)(辞)(的)(鹰)(鸽)(程)(度)(。
美)(联)(储)(将)(于)(本)(周)(首)(次)(加)(息)(的)(预)(期)(打)(压)(金)(价)(,但)(由)(于)(美)(国)(政)(局)(动)(荡)(以)(及)(潜)(在)(贸)(易)(战)(风)(险)(引)(发)(了)(市)(场)(的)(避)(险)(需)(求)(,限)(制)(了)(金)(价)(跌)(势)(。
近)(来)(美)(国)(政)(治)(不)(确)(定)(性)(加)(剧)(,以)(及)(市)(场)(对)(美)(国)(政)(府)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(主)(义)(抬)(头)(的)(担)(忧)(愈)(发)(强)(烈)(。而)(另)(一)(方)(面)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(和)(英)(国)(就)(前)(俄)(罗)(斯)(双)(重)(间)(谍)(在)(英)(国)(土)(地)(上)(被)(投)(毒)(事)(件)(引)(发)(的)(外)(交)(危)(机)(突)(显)(出)(黄)(金)(的)(避)(险)(吸)(引)(力)(。
虽)(然)(短)(期)(内)(金)(价)(受)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(压)(制)(可)(能)(跌)(至)(1300美)(元)(附)(近)(,但)(金)(价)(进)(一)(步)(走)(低)(的)(空)(间)(仍)(是)(有)(限)(的)(。
盛)(宝)(银)(行)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(策)(略)(主)(管)(OleHansen在)(一)(份)(报)(告)(中)(表)(示)(,此)(前)(美)(联)(储)(的)(多)(次)(加)(息)(证)(明)(,黄)(金)(虽)(然)(在)(利)(率)(决)(议)(公)(布)(前)(会)(遭)(受)(卖)(盘)(,但)(随)(着)(政)(策)(声)(明)(的)(出)(炉)(,金)(价)(就)(会)(强)(劲)(反)(弹)(。
上)(周)(五)(黄)(金)(交)(易)(所)(交)(易)(基)(金)(ETF累)(积)(持)(仓)(录)(得)(一)(个)(月)(内)(最)(大)(涨)(幅)(。华)(盛)(顿)(邮)(报)(称)(,特)(朗)(普)(总)(统)(计)(划)(罢)(免)(他)(的)(国)(家)(安)(全)(顾)(问)(时)(,由)(于)(政)(治)(摩)(擦)(和)(安)(全)(问)(题)(上)(升)(,黄)(金)(ETF持)(有)(量)(创)(下)(自)(2月)(中)(旬)(以)(来)(的)(最)(大)(单)(日)(涨)(幅)(。
汇)(通)(财)(经)(易)(汇)(通)(行)(情)(软)(件)(显)(示)(,北)(京)(时)(间)(15:50,美)(元)(指)(数)(报)(90.298。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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