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广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

为什么中国经济韧性这么强?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月25日 22:13:31
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(3)经)(济)(结)(构)(转)(型)(升)(级)(,传)(统)(行)(业)(筑)(底)(转)(型)(,新)(动)(能)(新)(产)(业)(新)(经)(济)(加)(快)(成)(长)(。在)(钢)(铁)(、有)(色)(、建)(材)(、化)(工)(等)(行)(业)(低)(增)(长)(的)(同)(时)(,新)(能)(源)(汽)(车)(、工)(业)(机)(器)(人)(、旅)(游)(消)(费)(、电)(影)(票)(房)(收)(入)(、移)(动)(支)(付)(等)(快)(速)(增)(长)(。移)(动)(互)(联)(网)(经)(济)(爆)(发)(式)(增)(长)(,1-2月)(全)(国)(网)(上)(零)(售)(额)(同)(比)(增)(长)(37.3%,增)(速)(比)(2017年)(全)(年)(加)(快)(5.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。
4)2017年)(3季)(度)(-2018年)(上)(半)(年)(步)(入)(MINI去)(库)(存)(周)(期)(,属)(于)(中)(期)(产)(能)(周)(期)(向)(上)(的)(短)(期)(库)(存)(回)(调)(。由)(于)(合)(意)(库)(存)(水)(平)(低)(,2016-2017年)(2季)(度)(的)(此)(轮)(补)(库)(周)(期)(力)(度)(浅)(、时)(间)(短)(,未)(来)(去)(库)(周)(期)(对)(经)(济)(的)(拖)(累)(较)(弱)(。
5)世)(界)(经)(济)(新)(一)(轮)(增)(长)(周)(期)(,带)(动)(中)(国)(出)(口)(复)(苏)(。2012年)(以)(来)(美)(国)(新)(周)(期)(复)(苏)(,2016年)(下)(半)(年)(以)(来)(欧)(洲)(经)(济)(新)(周)(期)(复)(苏)(,2016-2018年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(L型)(触)(底)(。这)(一)(轮)(美)(欧)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(有)(它)(自)(身)(的)(逻)(辑)(,主)(因)(是)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(修)(复)(比)(较)(健)(康)(,具)(备)(可)(持)(续)(性)(。
6)供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(红)(利)(逐)(步)(释)(放)(。2016年)(以)(来)(,公)(共)(政)(策)(部)(门)(不)(仅)(找)(到)(了)(中)(国)(经)(济)(问)(题)(的)(症)(结)(、正)(确)(的)(解)(决)(方)(案)(,更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(具)(备)(了)(坚)(决)(的)(执)(行)(力)(。随)(着)(去)(产)(能)(、去)(库)(存)(取)(得)(阶)(段)(性)(成)(效)(,政)(策)(重)(心)(开)(始)(着)(手)(解)(决)(去)(杠)(杆)(、降)(成)(本)(和)(补)(短)(板)(,2018年)(两)(会)(已)(经)(传)(递)(出)(清)(晰)(的)(政)(策)(信)(号)(。经)(济)(增)(速)(目)(标)(已)(经)(淡)(化)(,M2也)(不)(再)(提)(,稳)(健)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(搭)(配)(积)(极)(的)(财)(政)(政)(策)(,“一)(一)(五)(三)(”经)(济)(政)(策)(顶)(层)(设)(计)(日)(渐)(清)(晰)(,防)(范)(化)(解)(重)(大)(风)(险)(、精)(准)(扶)(贫)(、污)(染)(防)(治)(三)(大)(攻)(坚)(战)(已)(经)(开)(打)(,建)(设)(制)(造)(业)(强)(国)(和)(创)(新)(型)(国)(家)(,房)(产)(税)(正)(在)(立)(法)(,个)(人)(所)(得)(税)(将)(提)(高)(起)(征)(点)(增)(加)(抵)(扣)(,围)(绕)(加)(强)(党)(的)(全)(面)(领)(导)(、推)(动)(高)(质)(量)(发)(展)(调)(整)(优)(化)(机)(构)(职)(能)(,金)(融)(监)(管)(体)(制)(重)(点)(加)(强)(宏)(观)(审)(慎)(和)(监)(管)(协)(调)(,“独)(角)(兽)(”也)(要)(回)(A股)(了)(。
与)(此)(同)(时)(,我)(们)(也)(要)(客)(观)(地)(看)(到)(,2018年)(还)(有)(一)(些)(向)(下)(的)(力)(量)(,比)(如)(财)(政)(清)(理)(整)(顿)(拖)(累)(基)(建)(、金)(融)(监)(管)(加)(强)(影)(子)(银)(行)(缩)(表)(、房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(销)(售)(下)(滑)(、MINI去)(库)(存)(周)(期)(等)(。当)(前)(世)(界)(经)(济)(主)(要)(形)(势)(是)(新)(周)(期)(复)(苏)(和)(金)(融)(周)(期)(收)(紧)(。
因)(此)(,与)(重)(回)(衰)(退)(的)(过)(度)(悲)(观)(论)(和)(马)(上)(复)(苏)(的)(过)(度)(乐)(观)(论)(不)(同)(,我)(们)(判)(断)(2018年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(还)(将)(经)(历)(一)(年)(的)(L型)(筑)(底)(期)(和)(调)(整)(期)(,2019年)(有)(望)(突)(破)(L型)(的)(一)(横)(向)(上)(开)(启)(新)(周)(期)(:新)(一)(轮)(增)(长)(周)(期)(、新)(一)(轮)(高)(质)(量)(发)(展)(周)(期)(、新)(中)(速)(增)(长)(平)(台)(、新)(兴)(经)(济)(周)(期)(。
随)(着)(中)(国)(经)(济)(初)(露)(企)(稳)(苗)(头)(,供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(红)(利)(刚)(开)(始)(释)(放)(,近)(期)(市)(场)(上)(也)(开)(始)(出)(现)(一)(些)(过)(于)(乐)(观)(的)(观)(点)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(,要)(客)(观)(清)(醒)(地)(认)(识)(现)(实)(,改)(革)(的)(任)(务)(仍)(任)(重)(道)(远)(。今)(年)(是)(改)(革)(开)(放)(40周)(年)(,最)(好)(的)(纪)(念)(以)(更)(大)(决)(心)(和)(力)(度)(推)(动)(新)(一)(轮)(改)(革)(开)(放)(,展)(现)(新)(时)(代)(、新)(气)(象)(,开)(启)(新)(周)(期)(。比)(总)(结)(“中)(国)(做)(对)(了)(什)(么)(”更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(,“中)(国)(还)(需)(要)(做)(什)(么)(?”
1-2月)(数)(据)(主)(要)(呈)(以)(下)(特)(点)(:工)(业)(生)(产)(超)(预)(期)(,出)(口)(和)(新)(经)(济)(带)(动)(明)(显)(;固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(回)(升)(,一)(产)(受)(乡)(村)(振)(兴)(和)(农)(业)(供)(改)(提)(振)(,三)(产)(中)(美)(好)(生)(活)(领)(域)(高)(增)(,民)(间)(投)(资)(回)(暖)(;补)(库)(存)(和)(租)(赁)(房)(建)(设)(推)(动)(地)(产)(投)(资)(超)(预)(期)(,棚)(改)(拉)(动)(三)(四)(线)(地)(产)(销)(售)(;制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(筑)(底)(,结)(构)(优)(化)(,中)(高)(端)(制)(造)(高)(增)(,低)(端)(制)(造)(低)(增)(;基)(建)(投)(资)(仍)(有)(惯)(性)(支)(撑)(,财)(政)(整)(顿)(、赤)(字)(率)(下)(调)(和)(金)(融)(收)(紧)(将)(拖)(累)(基)(建)(回)(落)(;消)(费)(平)(稳)(回)(升)(,移)(动)(互)(联)(网)(经)(济)(爆)(发)(,美)(好)(生)(活)(消)(费)(升)(级)(;世)(界)(经)(济)(新)(周)(期)(,出)(口)(持)(续)(复)(苏)(;PMI略)(降)(但)(延)(续)(景)(气)(,主)(要)(受)(环)(保)(限)(产)(和)(春)(节)(错)(位)(的)(影)(响)(;猪)(周)(期)(和)(核)(心)(通)(胀)(推)(动)(中)(期)(CPI温)(和)(上)(升)(;信)(贷)(上)(升)(社)(融)(下)(降)(,金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(表)(外)(回)(表)(。
对)(于)(大)(类)(资)(产)(而)(言)(,在)(经)(济)(L型)(筑)(底)(调)(整)(背)(景)(下)(,股)(市)(结)(构)(性)(机)(会)(,债)(市)(交)(易)(性)(机)(会)(、配)(置)(为)(主)(。具)(体)(而)(言)(,股)(市)(存)(在)(结)(构)(性)(机)(会)(,关)(注)(政)(策)(鼓)(励)(的)(新)(经)(济)(细)(分)(龙)(头)(独)(角)(兽)(和)(新)(消)(费)(升)(级)(行)(业)(,基)(建)(和)(房)(地)(产)(相)(关)(链)(条)(受)(需)(求)(弱)(化)(影)(响)(;债)(市)(短)(期)(存)(在)(交)(易)(机)(会)(但)(空)(间)(不)(大)(,以)(配)(置)(价)(值)(为)(主)(;人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(双)(向)(波)(动)(以)(稳)(为)(主)(,中)(期)(强)(势)(。
2、工)(业)(生)(产)(超)(预)(期)(,出)(口)(和)(新)(经)(济)(带)(动)(明)(显)(
1-2月)(规)(模)(以)(上)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(同)(比)(7.2%,大)(幅)(高)(于)(预)(期)(和)(前)(值)(的)(6.2%,创)(2017年)(6月)(以)(来)(新)(高)(。在)(金)(融)(收)(紧)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,工)(业)(生)(产)(超)(预)(期)(的)(原)(因)(有)(三)(个)(:一)(是)(春)(节)(错)(位)(,2017年)(春)(节)(在)(1月)(18日)(,今)(年)(在)(2月)(16日)(。一)(般)(而)(言)(,企)(业)(在)(节)(前)(赶)(工)(生)(产)(,而)(节)(后)(因)(农)(民)(工)(返)(乡)(复)(工)(较)(慢)(。二)(是)(出)(口)(拉)(动)(。1-2月)(出)(口)(交)(货)(值)(同)(比)(增)(长)(9.5%,较)(去)(年)(12月)(上)(升)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。三)(是)(新)(经)(济)(和)(新)(消)(费)(增)(长)(强)(劲)(。1-2月)(高)(技)(术)(产)(业)(增)(加)(值)(同)(比)(增)(长)(11.9%,比)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(增)(速)(快)(4.7个)(百)(分)(点)(;消)(费)(品)(制)(造)(业)(增)(长)(8.4%,增)(速)(较)(上)(年)(12月)(加)(快)(2.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。
分)(行)(业)(看)(,传)(统)(工)(业)(继)(续)(低)(增)(。1-2月)(化)(学)(原)(料)(和)(化)(学)(制)(品)(制)(造)(业)(增)(长)(2.4%(前)(值)(3.7%),非)(金)(属)(矿)(物)(制)(品)(业)(增)(长)(4.2%(前)(值)(0.8%),黑)(色)(金)(属)(冶)(炼)(和)(压)(延)(加)(工)(业)(增)(长)(1.7%(前)(值)(-1.5%),有)(色)(金)(属)(冶)(炼)(和)(压)(延)(加)(工)(业)(增)(长)(4.4%(前)(值)(5.4%),纺)(织)(业)(增)(长)(2.8%(3.9%)。
高)(端)(制)(造)(延)(续)(高)(增)(。1-2月)(计)(算)(机)(、通)(信)(和)(其)(他)(电)(子)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(增)(长)(12.1%(前)(值)(12.4%),汽)(车)(制)(造)(业)(增)(长)(4.9%(前)(值)(9.6%),铁)(路)(、船)(舶)(、航)(空)(航)(天)(和)(其)(他)(运)(输)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(增)(长)(4.9%(前)(值)(9.1%),电)(气)(机)(械)(和)(器)(材)(制)(造)(业)(增)(长)(9.4%(前)(值)(9.9%),通)(用)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(增)(长)(9.1%(前)(值)(8.5%),专)(用)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(增)(长)(10.3%(前)(值)(10.7%)。
从)(产)(量)(上)(看)(,1-2月)(月)(工)(业)(机)(器)(人)(、新)(能)(源)(汽)(车)(产)(量)(同)(比)(增)(速)(分)(别)(高)(达)(25.1%、178.1%;平)(板)(玻)(璃)(、生)(铁)(、焦)(炭)(继)(续)(同)(比)(负)(增)(、但)(均)(较)(上)(月)(有)(所)(回)(升)(,水)(泥)(产)(量)(同)(比)(由)(负)(转)(正)(,粗)(钢)(、钢)(材)(产)(量)(、发)(电)(量)(同)(比)(增)(速)(上)(升)(。
3、固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(回)(升)(,一)(产)(受)(乡)(村)(振)(兴)(和)(农)(业)(供)(改)(提)(振)(,三)(产)(中)(美)(好)(生)(活)(领)(域)(高)(增)(,民)(间)(投)(资)(回)(暖)(
1-2月)(,固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(累)(计)(同)(比)(7.9%,较)(2017年)(全)(年)(加)(快)(0.7个)(百)(分)(点)(,为)(2017年)(7月)(以)(来)(新)(高)(。其)(中)(,一)(产)(投)(资)(大)(幅)(攀)(升)(和)(民)(间)(投)(资)(回)(暖)(值)(得)(关)(注)(。
从)(三)(次)(产)(业)(看)(,第)(一)(、第)(二)(、第)(三)(产)(业)(投)(资)(累)(计)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(27.8%、2.4%、10.2%,分)(别)(较)(2017年)(全)(年)(变)(化)(16、-0.8、0.7个)(百)(分)(点)(。
第)(一)(产)(业)(投)(资)(增)(速)(因)(乡)(村)(振)(兴)(战)(略)(和)(农)(业)(供)(改)(大)(力)(推)(进)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(。其)(中)(,农)(业)(、林)(业)(、畜)(牧)(业)(投)(资)(分)(别)(增)(长)(22.9%、42.4%、37.4%,分)(别)(较)(去)(年)(全)(年)(加)(快)(6.5、39.6、31个)(百)(分)(点)(。本)(次)(国)(务)(院)(机)(构)(改)(革)(提)(出)(设)(立)(农)(业)(农)(村)(部)(,一)(产)(投)(资)(或)(持)(续)(高)(增)(长)(。
在)(第)(三)(产)(业)(,1-2月)(社)(会)(事)(业)(投)(资)(增)(速)(高)(达)(28.3%。其)(中)(,教)(育)(、卫)(生)(和)(社)(会)(工)(作)(、文)(化)(、体)(育)(和)(娱)(乐)(业)(投)(资)(分)(别)(增)(长)(25.8%、27.2%32.7%,分)(别)(较)(去)(年)(全)(年)(加)(快)(5.6、9.1、19.8个)(百)(分)(点)(。
从)(民)(间)(投)(资)(看)(,1-2月)(民)(间)(投)(资)(累)(计)(同)(比)(8.1%,较)(2017年)(全)(年)(加)(快)(2.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,创)(2016年)(以)(来)(新)(高)(。其)(中)(,第)(一)(、第)(二)(、第)(三)(产)(业)(投)(资)(累)(计)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(24.4%、4%、10.4%,分)(别)(较)(2017年)(全)(年)(加)(快)(11.1、0.2、2.7个)(百)(分)(点)(。
4、补)(库)(存)(和)(租)(赁)(房)(建)(设)(推)(动)(地)(产)(投)(资)(超)(预)(期)(,棚)(改)(拉)(动)(三)(四)(线)(地)(产)(销)(售)(
1-2月)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(投)(资)(同)(比)(9.9%,较)(12月)(上)(升)(7.5个)(百)(分)(点)(,创)(2015年)(2月)(以)(来)(新)(高)(,是)(本)(次)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(超)(预)(期)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(。1-2月)(房)(屋)(新)(开)(工)(面)(积)(同)(比)(2.9%,较)(2017年)(12月)(下)(滑)(5.7个)(百)(分)(点)(。根)(据)(我)(们)(此)(前)(的)(分)(析)(,预)(计)(房)(地)(产)(补)(库)(、租)(赁)(房)(建)(设)(、行)(业)(并)(购)(等)(将)(支)(撑)(2018年)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(。
1-2月)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(同)(比)(4.1%,虽)(较)(2017年)(12月)(回)(落)(2个)(百)(分)(点)(,但)(仍)(超)(出)(市)(场)(预)(期)(,这)(主)(要)(在)(于)(去)(库)(存)(政)(策)(下)(棚)(改)(货)(币)(化)(刺)(激)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(销)(售)(回)(暖)(、房)(企)(促)(销)(等)(因)(素)(。1-2月)(PSL新)(增)(2230亿)(元)(,远)(超)(去)(年)(同)(期)(的)(543亿)(元)(。在)(数)(据)(上)(,1-2月)(中)(部)(、西)(部)(、东)(北)(地)(区)(的)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(10.7%、13.2%、15.2%,东)(部)(地)(区)(同)(比)(-5.5%。与)(2017年)(全)(年)(比)(较)(,东)(部)(地)(区)(销)(售)(面)(积)(增)(速)(由)(正)(转)(负)(,中)(部)(地)(区)(下)(滑)(2.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,西)(部)(地)(区)(和)(东)(北)(地)(区)(分)(别)(上)(升)(2.5、8.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。1-2月)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(金)(额)(同)(比)(增)(长)(15.3%,较)(上)(月)(上)(升)(1.3个)(百)(分)(点)(。销)(售)(金)(额)(与)(销)(售)(面)(积)(的)(差)(额)(扩)(大)(,说)(明)(销)(售)(均)(价)(上)(升)(。在)(金)(融)(收)(紧)(和)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(背)(景)(下)(,预)(计)(2018年)(地)(产)(销)(售)(压)(力)(较)(大)(,但)(棚)(改)(将)(支)(撑)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(。
1-2月)(全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(待)(售)(面)(积)(同)(比)(-17.1%,延)(续)(下)(滑)(态)(势)(。全)(国)(土)(地)(购)(置)(面)(积)(累)(计)(同)(比)(-1.2%,较)(2017年)(12月)(大)(幅)(下)(滑)(13.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。从)(房)(企)(资)(金)(看)(,1-2月)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(到)(位)(资)(金)(同)(比)(增)(长)(4.8%,较)(2017年)(12月)(下)(滑)(7.6个)(百)(分)(点)(,主)(要)(是)(因)(为)(国)(内)(贷)(款)(增)(速)(从)(2017年)(累)(计)(17.3%下)(滑)(至)(1-2月)(的)(0.3%、个)(人)(按)(揭)(贷)(款)(从)(-2%降)(至)(-4.3%,而)(定)(金)(和)(预)(收)(款)(从)(16.1%小)(幅)(下)(滑)(至)(14.2%。
5、制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(筑)(底)(,结)(构)(优)(化)(,中)(高)(端)(制)(造)(高)(增)(
1-2月)(,制)(造)(业)(累)(计)(投)(资)(同)(比)(4.3%,较)(2017年)(回)(落)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(,与)(去)(年)(同)(期)(持)(平)(。制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(结)(构)(继)(续)(优)(化)(。
中)(高)(端)(制)(造)(高)(增)(,1-2月)(城)(市)(轨)(道)(交)(通)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(增)(长)(117%,工)(业)(机)(器)(人)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(增)(长)(81.8%,航)(空)(航)(天)(器)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(增)(长)(70.3%,通)(信)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(增)(长)(70.2%,工)(业)(自)(动)(控)(制)(系)(统)(装)(置)(投)(资)(增)(长)(33.8%。
传)(统)(制)(造)(低)(增)(,1-2月)(化)(学)(原)(料)(及)(化)(学)(制)(品)(累)(计)(同)(比)(1.2%、较)(2017年)(上)(升)(5.2个)(百)(分)(点)(;有)(色)(金)(属)(冶)(炼)(及)(压)(延)(加)(工)(业)(延)(续)(负)(增)(长)(,降)(幅)(较)(2017年)(扩)(大)(1.2个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(-4.2%。
2016-2017年)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(已)(经)(触)(底)(,但)(受)(银)(行)(对)(“两)(高)(一)(剩)(”行)(业)(限)(贷)(、环)(保)(督)(查)(、供)(给)(侧)(去)(产)(能)(等)(制)(约)(抑)(制)(,新)(增)(产)(能)(一)(直)(受)(限)(。随)(着)(产)(能)(出)(清)(、企)(业)(盈)(利)(改)(善)(、资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(修)(复)(、出)(口)(复)(苏)(,我)(们)(预)(计)(2018年)(下)(半)(年)(-2019年)(将)(开)(启)(新)(一)(轮)(企)(业)(资)(本)(开)(支)(周)(期)(。未)(来)(新)(一)(轮)(产)(能)(投)(资)(不)(再)(是)(传)(统)(落)(后)(过)(剩)(的)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(,而)(是)(带)(有)(新)(时)(代)(、新)(周)(期)(、新)(经)(济)(的)(内)(涵)(,代)(表)(着)(高)(质)(量)(发)(展)(的)(未)(来)(。
6、基)(建)(投)(资)(仍)(有)(惯)(性)(支)(撑)(,财)(政)(整)(顿)(、赤)(字)(率)(下)(调)(和)(金)(融)(收)(紧)(将)(拖)(累)(基)(建)(回)(落)(
1-2月)(第)(三)(产)(业)(基)(建)(投)(资)((不)(含)(电)(力)()累)(计)(同)(比)(16.1%,较)(2017年)(下)(降)(2.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。规)(模)(较)(小)(的)(电)(力)(、热)(力)(、燃)(气)(及)(水)(的)(生)(产)(和)(供)(应)(业)(投)(资)(累)(计)(同)(比)(-6.1%,较)(2017年)(下)(降)(6.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。基)(建)(投)(资)(下)(滑)(幅)(度)(较)(小)(,主)(要)(原)(因)(可)(能)(在)(于)(去)(年)(已)(开)(工)(项)(目)(的)(支)(撑)(。
在)(第)(三)(产)(业)(基)(建)(投)(资)((不)(含)(电)(力)()中)(,1-2月)(水)(利)(管)(理)(业)(、公)(共)(设)(施)(管)(理)(业)(、道)(路)(运)(输)(业)(投)(资)(累)(计)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(12.9%、15.6%、19.1%,分)(别)(较)(2017年)(下)(降)(3.5、6.2、4个)(百)(分)(点)(。铁)(路)(运)(输)(业)(累)(计)(同)(比)(3.4%,较)(2017年)(上)(升)(3.5个)(百)(分)(点)(。
从)(财)(政)(支)(出)(角)(度)(看)(,2018年)(实)(施)(积)(极)(的)(财)(政)(政)(策)(,但)(积)(极)(财)(政)(的)(方)(向)(发)(生)(变)(化)(:从)(支)(出)(转)(向)(减)(税)(,侧)(重)(民)(生)(和)(支)(持)(三)(大)(攻)(坚)(战)(。2018年)(财)(政)(赤)(字)(率)(下)(调)(为)(2.6%,为)(2012年)(以)(来)(首)(次)(下)(调)(,绝)(对)(赤)(字)(规)(模)(与)(上)(年)(持)(平)(为)(2.38万)(亿)(;专)(项)(债)(券)(增)(加)(5500亿)(至)(1.35万)(亿)(,连)(续)(三)(年)(扩)(大)(规)(模)(。综)(合)(考)(虑)(一)(般)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(和)(专)(项)(债)(,2018年)(的)(实)(际)(赤)(字)(率)(为)(4.4%,略)(低)(于)(2017年)(的)(4.6%,对)(基)(建)(投)(资)(将)(产)(生)(压)(力)(,但)(是)(非)(标)(、影)(子)(银)(行)(清)(理)(带)(来)(的)(影)(响)(更)(大)(。已)(公)(布)(的)(1月)(公)(共)(财)(政)(支)(出)(同)(比)(-7.4%,较)(2017年)(全)(年)(下)(降)(15.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。在)(财)(政)(整)(顿)(、赤)(字)(率)(下)(调)(、防)(化)(风)(险)(背)(景)(下)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(后)(续)(将)(继)(续)(下)(滑)(。
7、消)(费)(平)(稳)(回)(升)(,移)(动)(互)(联)(网)(经)(济)(爆)(发)(,美)(好)(生)(活)(消)(费)(升)(级)(
1-2月)(社)(会)(消)(费)(品)(零)(售)(总)(额)(名)(义)(增)(长)(9.7%,高)(于)(前)(值)(的)(9.4%,增)(速)(较)(去)(年)(同)(期)(也)(加)(快)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。分)(消)(费)(类)(型)(看)(,1-2月)(商)(品)(零)(售)(同)(比)(增)(长)(9.7%,比)(2017年)(12月)(上)(升)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(;餐)(饮)(收)(入)(同)(比)(增)(长)(10.1%,与)(前)(值)(持)(平)(。
在)(限)(额)(以)(上)(单)(位)(商)(品)(零)(售)(中)(,1-2月)(汽)(车)(消)(费)(因)(基)(数)(低)(等)(同)(比)(9.7%,较)(上)(月)(增)(长)(7.5个)(百)(分)(点)(,为)(自)(2017年)(7月)(以)(来)(新)(高)(。消)(费)(升)(级)(类)(商)(品)(高)(位)(稍)(有)(下)(滑)(,中)(西)(药)(品)(类)(、化)(妆)(品)(类)(、通)(讯)(器)(材)(类)(商)(品)(零)(售)(额)(同)(比)(分)(别)(增)(长)(10.1%、12.5%和)(10.7%,分)(别)(下)(滑)(3.4、1.3、2.7个)(百)(分)(点)(。在)(房)(地)(产)(链)(条)(相)(关)(消)(费)(中)(,家)(具)(类)(同)(比)(8.5%,较)(上)(月)(下)(滑)(4个)(百)(分)(点)(,建)(筑)(装)(潢)(类)(、家)(电)(音)(像)(类)(分)(别)(同)(比)(6.8%、9.2%,较)(上)(月)(分)(别)(上)(升)(1.6、0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(。在)(其)(他)(品)(类)(中)(,文)(化)(办)(公)(用)(品)(类)(、饮)(料)(类)(、中)(西)(药)(品)(类)(、通)(讯)(器)(材)(类)(、化)(妆)(品)(类)(、粮)(油)(食)(品)(类)(分)(别)(同)(比)(-0.9%、8.2%、10.1%和)(10.7%、12.5%,较)(上)(月)(分)(别)(下)(滑)(13.6、1.4、3.4和)(2.7、1.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,金)(银)(珠)(宝)(类)(、日)(用)(品)(类)(分)(别)(同)(比)(3.0%、10.1%,较)(上)(月)(分)(别)(上)(升)(2.6、4.7个)(百)(分)(点)(,粮)(油)(食)(品)(类)(同)(比)(9.7%,与)(上)(月)(持)(平)(。
网)(购)(延)(续)(高)(增)(,1-2月)(全)(国)(网)(上)(零)(售)(额)(同)(比)(增)(长)(37.3%,增)(速)(比)(2017年)(全)(年)(加)(快)(5.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(,实)(物)(商)(品)(网)(上)(零)(售)(额)(同)(比)(增)(长)(35.6%,占)(社)(会)(消)(费)(品)(零)(售)(总)(额)(的)(比)(重)(为)(14.9%;非)(实)(物)(商)(品)(网)(上)(零)(售)(额)(同)(比)(增)(长)(42.4%。旅)(游)(消)(费)(、电)(影)(票)(房)(收)(入)(、移)(动)(支)(付)(快)(速)(增)(长)(。
8、世)(界)(经)(济)(新)(周)(期)(,出)(口)(持)(续)(复)(苏)(
1-2月)(出)(口)(同)(比)(24.4%,较)(2017年)(12月)(上)(升)(13.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。近)(期)(虽)(受)(人)(民)(币)(升)(值)(压)(制)(,但)(因)(春)(节)(错)(位)(、外)(需)(持)(续)(复)(苏)(等)(出)(口)(仍)(持)(续)(复)(苏)(。2月)(美)(国)(、欧)(元)(区)(、日)(本)(制)(造)(业)(PMI分)(别)(为)(60.8%、58.6%、54.1%,虽)(然)(欧)(日)(2月)(PMI较)(1月)(略)(有)(滑)(落)(,但)(仍)(处)(于)(高)(度)(景)(气)(区)(间)(。近)(期)(美)(国)(、欧)(盟)(出)(台)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(措)(施)(,贸)(易)(保)(护)(倾)(向)(值)(得)(警)(惕)(。全)(球)(经)(济)(处)(于)(新)(一)(轮)(增)(长)(周)(期)(。这)(一)(轮)(美)(欧)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(,主)(要)(是)(基)(于)(自)(身)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(修)(复)(,具)(备)(可)(持)(续)(性)(。
从)(出)(口)(经)(济)(体)(看)(,除)(对)(港)(台)(出)(口)(明)(显)(下)(滑)(外)(,2月)(中)(国)(对)(大)(部)(分)(主)(要)(经)(济)(体)(出)(口)(均)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(。从)(出)(口)(产)(品)(类)(别)(看)(,2月)(劳)(动)(密)(集)(型)(产)(品)(出)(口)(、机)(电)(产)(品)(出)(口)(增)(速)(均)(创)(2015年)(3月)(以)(来)(新)(高)(,高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(品)(出)(口)(增)(速)(高)(位)(略)(有)(回)(落)(。
2月)(中)(国)(外)(储)(规)(模)(自)(2017年)(2月)(以)(来)(首)(次)(下)(降)(为)(31344.82亿)(美)(元)(,较)(前)(值)(下)(降)(269.75亿)(美)(元)(。主)(要)(原)(因)(在)(于)(:2月)(美)(元)(指)(数)(较)(1月)(小)(幅)(反)(弹)(,非)(美)(货)(币)(贬)(值)(对)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(估)(值)(带)(来)(较)(大)(负)(面)(影)(响)(;美)(债)(下)(跌)(,投)(资)(资)(产)(波)(动)(贡)(献)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(负)(增)(长)(;春)(节)(季)(节)(性)(因)(素)(施)(压)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(。
9、PMI略)(降)(但)(延)(续)(景)(气)(,主)(要)(受)(环)(保)(限)(产)(和)(春)(节)(错)(位)(的)(影)(响)(
2月)(官)(方)(制)(造)(业)(PMI为)(50.3%,预)(期)(51.1%,前)(值)(51.3%;2月)(官)(方)(非)(制)(造)(业)(PMI为)(54.4%,预)(期)(55%,前)(值)(55.3%;2月)(官)(方)(综)(合)(PMI产)(出)(指)(数)(为)(52.9%,前)(值)(54.6%。
2月)(制)(造)(业)(PMI短)(期)(回)(落)(至)(50.3%,主)(因)(春)(节)(扰)(动)(、去)(库)(存)(、金)(融)(条)(件)(收)(紧)(、房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(等)(,3月)(15日)(采)(暖)(季)(限)(产)(结)(束)(、短)(期)(扰)(动)(因)(素)(消)(退)(后)(生)(产)(将)(恢)(复)(到)(周)(期)(自)(身)(轨)(道)(。制)(造)(业)(PMI连)(续)(19个)(月)(位)(于)(扩)(张)(区)(间)(,表)(明)(经)(济)(L型)(韧)(性)(强)(。符)(合)(我)(们)(“2018年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(还)(将)(经)(历)(一)(年)(的)(L型)(筑)(底)(期)(和)(调)(整)(期)(,以)(开)(启)(新)(周)(期)(”的)(判)(断)(,与)(重)(回)(衰)(退)(的)(过)(度)(悲)(观)(论)(和)(马)(上)(复)(苏)(的)(过)(度)(乐)(观)(论)(不)(同)(。生)(产)(指)(数)(下)(滑)(超)(过)(新)(订)(单)(指)(数)(,表)(明)(春)(节)(、环)(保)(限)(产)(等)(短)(期)(因)(素)(扰)(动)(大)(。
分)(行)(业)(看)(,高)(技)(术)(和)(装)(备)(制)(造)(业)(快)(速)(发)(展)(。分)(企)(业)(规)(模)(看)(,大)(企)(业)(好)(于)(小)(企)(业)(,行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(继)(续)(提)(升)(。从)(价)(格)(看)(,主)(要)(原)(材)(料)(价)(格)(和)(出)(厂)(价)(格)(涨)(幅)(回)(落)(。原)(材)(料)(库)(存)(指)(数)(略)(升)(,产)(成)(品)(库)(存)(指)(数)(略)(降)(,MINI去)(库)(存)(周)(期)(对)(经)(济)(拖)(累)(有)(限)(。在)(非)(制)(造)(业)(方)(面)(,建)(筑)(业)(商)(务)(活)(动)(指)(数)(高)(位)(回)(落)(至)(57.5%但)(企)(业)(预)(期)(乐)(观)(。非)(制)(造)(业)(商)(务)(活)(动)(指)(数)(稍)(降)(但)(连)(续)(6个)(月)(处)(于)(54%以)(上)(的)(扩)(张)(区)(间)(,消)(费)(升)(级)(加)(快)(。
10、猪)(周)(期)(和)(核)(心)(通)(胀)(推)(动)(中)(期)(CPI温)(和)(上)(升)(
2月)(CPI同)(比)(增)(2.9%,较)(上)(月)(上)(升)(1.4个)(百)(分)(点)(。2月)(PPI同)(比)(增)(3.7%,较)(上)(月)(下)(降)(0.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。
预)(计)(中)(期)(CPI在)(猪)(周)(期)(和)(核)(心)(通)(胀)(支)(撑)(下)(温)(和)(上)(升)(,PPI受)(利)(率)(上)(升)(和)(需)(求)(侧)(弱)(化)(拖)(累)(回)(落)(,CPI、PPI剪)(刀)(差)(收)(窄)(,利)(好)(中)(下)(游)(行)(业)(尤)(其)(新)(消)(费)(新)(经)(济)(,基)(建)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(相)(关)(行)(业)(承)(压)(。
未)(来)(需)(要)(关)(注)(四)(个)(方)(面)(:1)猪)(周)(期)(处)(在)(底)(部)(,今)(年)(猪)(肉)(价)(格)(有)(上)(涨)(空)(间)(,对)(中)(期)(通)(胀)(的)(拉)(动)(作)(用)(需)(要)(重)(视)(。2)核)(心)(通)(胀)(上)(升)(显)(示)(出)(经)(济)(结)(构)(改)(善)(,消)(费)(持)(续)(升)(级)(。3)上)(游)(涨)(价)(向)(下)(游)(传)(导)(仍)(存)(困)(难)(,主)(要)(因)(为)(去)(年)(货)(币)(增)(速)(的)(边)(际)(收)(紧)(,货)(币)(数)(量)(论)(的)(作)(用)(下)(,整)(体)(价)(格)(持)(续)(上)(行)(受)(阻)(。4)PPI受)(高)(基)(数)(和)(原)(油)(阶)(段)(性)(下)(滑)(影)(响)(增)(幅)(回)(落)(,叠)(加)(金)(融)(监)(管)(带)(来)(利)(率)(上)(行)(,或)(抑)(制)(经)(济)(及)(投)(资)(活)(动)(。
11、信)(贷)(上)(升)(社)(融)(下)(降)(,金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(表)(外)(回)(表)(
1-2月)(新)(增)(信)(贷)(3.74万)(亿)(元)(,较)(去)(年)(同)(期)(多)(增)(5407亿)(元)(,表)(明)(贷)(款)(支)(持)(实)(体)(力)(度)(进)(一)(步)(加)(强)(,满)(足)(实)(体)(经)(济)(较)(强)(融)(资)(需)(求)(。1-2月)(社)(融)(42303亿)(元)(,较)(去)(年)(同)(期)(下)(降)(5575亿)(元)(,表)(外)(融)(资)(持)(续)(低)(量)(,严)(监)(管)(下)(表)(外)(回)(表)(趋)(势)(延)(续)(。2月)(末)(M2同)(比)(增)(长)(8.8%,增)(速)(比)(上)(月)(末)(高)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。考)(虑)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(降)(低)(资)(金)(空)(转)(,减)(少)(套)(利)(环)(节)(,在)(M2低)(速)(运)(行)(背)(景)(下)(,资)(金)(使)(用)(效)(率)(提)(升)(依)(然)(能)(够)(对)(实)(体)(经)(济)(形)(成)(有)(效)(支)(撑)(,促)(进)(高)(质)(量)(发)(展)(。
2018年)(社)(融)(将)(呈)(四)(大)(趋)(势)(,一)(是)(严)(控)(居)(民)(杠)(杆)(,二)(是)(支)(持)(实)(体)(企)(业)(信)(贷)(投)(放)(,三)(是)(表)(外)(回)(表)(,四)(是)(直)(接)(融)(资)(占)(比)(提)(升)(。信)(贷)(上)(升)(社)(融)(下)(降)(表)(明)(监)(管)(趋)(严)(下)(表)(外)(回)(表)(,影)(子)(银)(行)(体)(系)(融)(资)(将)(大)(幅)(收)(缩)(:信)(托)(贷)(款)(、委)(托)(贷)(款)(、资)(管)(计)(划)(、基)(金)(子)(公)(司)(产)(品)(等)(通)(道)(业)(务)(面)(临)(大)(幅)(下)(滑)(,表)(外)(理)(财)(、同)(业)(存)(单)(等)(影)(子)(银)(行)(资)(金)(来)(源)(面)(临)(收)(缩)(,表)(外)(回)(表)(带)(来)(表)(内)(贷)(款)(上)(升)(以)(及)(银)(行)(补)(充)(资)(本)(金)(压)(力)(。房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(,居)(民)(抵)(押)(贷)(款)(下)(降)(。
随)(着)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(缩)(表)(,中)(国)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(,全)(球)(流)(动)(性)(正)(在)(退)(潮)(。金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(短)(期)(抑)(制)(经)(济)(投)(资)(活)(动)(,但)(是)(中)(期)(有)(利)(于)(经)(济)(新)(周)(期)(持)(续)(健)(康)(发)(展)(。
风)(险)(提)(示)(:金)(融)(条)(件)(收)(紧)(是)(主)(要)(挑)(战)(;贸)(易)(战)(;地)(缘)(政)(治)(。
来)(源)(:泽)(平)(宏)(观)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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