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印度要成全球经济增速的王者?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月24日 01:43:44
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(  当)(下)(全)(球)(央)(行)(降)(息)(成)(风)(,仅)(年)(初)(至)(今)(,全)(球)(实)(行)(降)(息)(和)(宽)(松)(政)(策)(的)(国)(家)(央)(行)(已)(接)(近)(20家)(,覆)(盖)(全)(球)(50%以)(上)(的)(人)(口)(。  在)(此)(背)(景)(下)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(两)(度)(意)(外)(降)(息)(,以)(期)(刺)(激)(经)(济)(增)(长)(,实)(现)(通)(胀)(目)(标)(。同)(时)(,印)(度)(政)(府)(和)(央)(行)(近)(日)(动)(作)(频)(频)(,公)(布)(新)(财)(年)(财)(政)(预)(算)(案)(并)(对)(当)(前)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(进)(行)(结)(构)(性)(调)(整)(,致)(力)(于)(实)(现)(8%的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(目)(标)(,并)(期)(待)(成)(为)(2015年)(全)(球)(经)(济)(增)(长)(最)(快)(的)(国)(家)(。  两)(个)(月)(内)(二)(度)(降)(息)(  昨)(日)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(意)(外)(宣)(布)(下)(调)(回)(购)(利)(率)(25个)(基)(点)(,至)(7.5%。同)(时)(,降)(低)(逆)(回)(购)(利)(率)(25个)(基)(点)(,至)(6.5%,并)(维)(持)(现)(金)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)((CRR)4%不)(变)(。  这)(是)(今)(年)(以)(来)(印)(度)(央)(行)(第)(二)(次)(宣)(布)(降)(息)(。1月)(15日)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(毫)(无)(征)(兆)(将)(回)(购)(利)(率)(下)(调)(25个)(基)(点)(至)(7.75%,这)(也)(是)(该)(行)(自)(2013年)(5月)(来)(的)(首)(次)(降)(息)(。  印)(度)(央)(行)(方)(面)(表)(示)(,两)(次)(降)(息)(的)(主)(要)(动)(机)(均)(为)(了)(刺)(激)(经)(济)(增)(长)(,同)(时)(预)(防)(通)(胀)(率)(过)(快)(的)(放)(缓)(迹)(象)(。  分)(析)(人)(士)(指)(出)(,昨)(日)(的)(降)(息)(决)(定)(让)(市)(场)(感)(到)(十)(分)(意)(外)(,因)(为)(就)(在)(3月)(3日)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(行)(长)(拉)(格)(拉)(迈)(·拉)(詹)((RaghuramRajan)还)(在)(讲)(话)(中)(表)(示)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(不)(会)(过)(快)(降)(息)(,这)(或)(将)(引)(起)(资)(本)(突)(然)(的)(大)(量)(流)(出)(,还)(可)(能)(导)(致)(高)(通)(胀)(。  “寻)(求)(进)(一)(步)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(调)(整)(取)(决)(于)(经)(济)(数)(据)(,而)(本)(次)(利)(率)(决)(议)(是)(由)(数)(据)(决)(定)(的)(。”拉)(詹)(解)(对)(于)(此)(次)(意)(外)(降)(息)(的)(决)(定)(解)(释)(道)(。  在)(全)(球)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(,国)(际)(原)(油)(价)(格)(持)(续)(低)(位)(震)(荡)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,此)(前)(一)(直)(受)(高)(通)(胀)(困)(扰)(的)(印)(度)(央)(行)(开)(始)(担)(心)(通)(胀)(率)(下)(降)(速)(度)(过)(快)(而)(带)(来)(的)(风)(险)(。  印)(度)(商)(业)(银)(行)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(SubhadaRao表)(示)(,预)(计)(印)(度)(央)(行)(2016年)(1月)(达)(到)(6%的)(通)(胀)(目)(标)(或)(难)(以)(达)(成)(。“我)(们)(预)(计)(的)(基)(本)(降)(息)(目)(标)(是)(50个)(基)(点)(。但)(如)(果)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(继)(续)(维)(持)(低)(位)(,还)(有)(再)(多)(降)(25个)(基)(点)(的)(空)(间)(。”SubhadaRao说)(道)(。  而)(摩)(根)(士)(丹)(利)(亚)(洲)(经)(济)(学)(家)(ChetanAhya则)(预)(计)(印)(度)(央)(行)(的)(降)(息)(幅)(度)(或)(许)(更)(大)(。他)(表)(示)(:“我)(们)(仍)(然)(认)(为)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(到)(2015年)(底)(将)(下)(调)(基)(准)(利)(率)(125个)(基)(点)(。随)(着)(新)(预)(算)(的)(出)(炉)(,投)(资)(者)(的)(目)(光)(将)(转)(向)(政)(府)(更)(为)(关)(键)(的)(新)(政)(策)(改)(革)(”。  实)(际)(上)(,昨)(日)(降)(息)(的)(并)(非)(只)(有)(印)(度)(央)(行)(,波)(兰)(央)(行)(也)(意)(外)(调)(降)(关)(键)(利)(率)(50个)(基)(点)(至)(历)(史)(低)(点)(1.50%。此)(前)(市)(场)(预)(期)(降)(息)(25个)(基)(点)(。  今)(年)(1月)(瑞)(士)(央)(行)(意)(外)(降)(息)(并)(放)(弃)(欧)(元)(对)(瑞)(郎)(汇)(率)(下)(限)(之)(后)(,波)(兰)(央)(行)(行)(长)(MarekBelka曾)(表)(示)(,波)(兰)(有)(降)(息)(空)(间)(,但)(最)(好)(等)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(企)(稳)(之)(后)(再)(做)(决)(定)(。市)(场)(动)(荡)(之)(际)(不)(是)(降)(息)(的)(好)(时)(候)(。  而)(自)(去)(年)(以)(来)(,全)(球)(已)(经)(有)(超)(过)(20家)(央)(行)(宣)(布)(降)(息)(来)(应)(对)(油)(价)(暴)(跌)(后)(面)(临)(的)(经)(济)(风)(险)(。仅)(2015年)(至)(今)(,已)(经)(包)(括)(瑞)(士)(央)(行)(、加)(拿)(大)(央)(行)(、新)(加)(坡)(央)(行)(、丹)(麦)(央)(行)(等)(加)(入)(降)(息)(大)(军)(,其)(中)(丹)(麦)(央)(行)(更)(是)(连)(续)(4次)(降)(息)(。值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,2月)(28日)(,中)(国)(央)(行)(也)(在)(不)(到)(4个)(月)(内)(,二)(度)(宣)(布)(降)(息)(,上)(一)(次)(降)(息)(时)(间)(为)(去)(年)(的)(11月)(21日)(。  20多)(年)(首)(次)(引)(入)(通)(胀)(目)(标)(  业)(内)(人)(士)(认)(为)(,近)(日)(印)(度)(央)(行)(与)(财)(政)(部)(对)(于)(货)(币)(政)(策)(进)(行)(的)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(,或)(称)(为)(推)(动)(印)(度)(央)(行)(此)(次)(意)(外)(降)(息)(的)(重)(要)(原)(因)(。  3月)(3日)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(与)(印)(度)(财)(政)(部)(公)(布)(了)(印)(度)(经)(济)(开)(放)(20多)(年)(来)(动)(作)(最)(大)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(调)(整)(。  此)(次)(调)(整)(中)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(与)(财)(政)(部)(一)(致)(决)(定)(首)(次)(引)(入)(通)(胀)(目)(标)(,将)(货)(币)(政)(策)(目)(标)(主)(要)(目)(标)(设)(定)(为)(维)(持)(物)(价)(稳)(定)(,同)(时)(兼)(顾)(经)(济)(增)(长)(。  具)(体)(目)(标)(为)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(将)(首)(先)(确)(保)(通)(胀)(率)(在)(2016年)(1月)(前)(下)(降)(至)(6%以)(下)(,同)(时)(在)(2017年)(3月)(的)(财)(年)(结)(束)(时)(,使)(通)(胀)(目)(标)(达)(到)(4%,上)(下)(波)(动)(两)(个)(百)(分)(点)(。  2013年)(底)(时)(,印)(度)(的)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(率)(曾)(一)(度)(高)(达)(15%,促)(使)(印)(度)(政)(府)(和)(央)(行)(更)(加)(关)(注)(通)(过)(货)(币)(政)(策)(来)(大)(幅)(压)(低)(通)(胀)(率)(,在)(一)(系)(列)(加)(息)(措)(施)(以)(及)(能)(源)(和)(粮)(食)(价)(格)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(的)(影)(响)(下)(,2014年)(印)(度)(通)(胀)(率)(逐)(渐)(回)(落)(。  最)(新)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,今)(年)(2月)(份)(,印)(度)(居)(民)(消)(费)(价)(格)(指)(数)((CPI)为)(5.11%,这)(也)(是)(连)(续)(第)(四)(个)(月)(CPI低)(于)(6%,去)(年)(12月)(的)(CPI为)(4.28%,创)(下)(近)(5年)(的)(新)(低)(。  在)(此)(次)(引)(入)(通)(胀)(目)(标)(之)(前)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(一)(直)(以)(经)(济)(增)(长)(速)(度)(、汇)(率)(和)(银)(行)(体)(系)(流)(动)(性)(等)(多)(项)(指)(标)(作)(为)(货)(币)(政)(策)(行)(动)(指)(导)(。  “新)(的)(架)(构)(将)(令)(印)(度)(央)(行)(的)(政)(策)(决)(定)(更)(加)(接)(近)(于)(某)(些)(西)(方)(大)(型)(经)(济)(体)(的)(模)(式)(。例)(如)(,目)(前)(货)(币)(政)(策)(将)(以)(通)(胀)(为)(唯)(一)(的)(重)(点)(,正)(如)(美)(联)(储)(以)(控)(制)(通)(胀)(和)(失)(业)(率)(为)(使)(命)(”。孟)(买)(证)(券)(公)(司)(AnandRathiSecurities的)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(SujanHajra说)(道)(。  新)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(虽)(然)(以)(通)(胀)(目)(标)(为)(“标)(杆)(”,但)(仍)(然)(由)(印)(度)(央)(行)(行)(长)(来)(决)(定)(为)(实)(现)(这)(一)(目)(标)(而)(需)(要)(采)(取)(的)(最)(合)(适)(的)(措)(施)(。如)(果)(通)(胀)(目)(标)(未)(能)(达)(成)(,印)(度)(央)(行)(需)(要)(向)(政)(府)(汇)(报)(原)(因)(,并)(汇)(报)(该)(行)(计)(划)(采)(取)(的)(补)(救)(措)(施)(。  值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,尽)(管)(印)(度)(目)(前)(同)(世)(界)(大)(部)(分)(国)(家)(一)(样)(,面)(临)(着)(通)(胀)(放)(缓)(的)(风)(险)(,但)(印)(度)(政)(府)(对)(于)(该)(国)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(前)(景)(仍)(充)(满)(信)(心)(。  3月)(3日)(,据)(外)(媒)(报)(道)(,印)(度)(政)(府)(公)(布)(的)(最)(新)(规)(划)(中)(称)(,预)(计)(2015年)(印)(度)(GDP增)(长)(率)(将)(超)(过)(8%,并)(在)(随)(后)(几)(年)(突)(破)(10%。  印)(度)(政)(府)(在)(经)(济)(调)(查)(报)(告)(中)(称)(:“印)(度)(已)(处)(于)(一)(个)("最)(佳)(击)(球)(点)(",这)(在)(世)(界)(各)(国)(的)(历)(史)(上)(都)(相)(当)(少)(见)(,这)(将)(使)(印)(度)(最)(终)(踏)(上)(一)(个)(两)(位)(数)(的)(中)(期)(增)(长)(轨)(道)(。这)(种)(势)(头)(将)(使)(印)(度)(达)(到)(基)(本)(目)(标)(,即)(让)(所)(有)(现)(存)(的)(贫)(困)(和)(弱)(势)(群)(体)("擦)(去)(眼)(泪)(",并)(为)(日)(益)(增)(加)(的)(年)(轻)(人)(和)(中)(产)(阶)(级)(提)(供)(机)(会)(,使)(雄)(心)(勃)(勃)(的)(印)(度)(发)(挥)(出)(无)(限)(潜)(力)(。”  此)(外)(,2月)(28日)(,印)(度)(财)(政)(部)(长)(杰)(特)(利)((ArunJaitley)公)(布)(了)(印)(度)(总)(理)(莫)(迪)((NarendraModi)上)(任)(以)(来)(的)(首)(份)(财)(政)(预)(算)(案)(,宣)(布)(将)(斥)(资)(113亿)(美)(元)(投)(资)(基)(建)(项)(目)(,包)(括)(兴)(建)(公)(路)(、改)(善)(铁)(路)(系)(统)(、港)(口)(及)(卫)(生)(设)(备)(,同)(时)(削)(减)(部)(分)(税)(收)(,吸)(引)(国)(内)(外)(投)(资)(,刺)(激)(增)(长)(。  杰)(特)(利)(颇)(有)(信)(心)(的)(表)(示)(,印)(度)(经)(济)(即)(将)(在)(快)(速)(增)(长)(的)(轨)(道)(上)(再)(次)(起)(飞)(。来)(源)(一)(财)(网)()
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