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2019年美股、港股和A股,投资者到底该怎样选择?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月26日 03:08:27
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(原)(标)(题)(:2019年)(美)(股)(、港)(股)(和)(A股)(,投)(资)(者)(到)(底)(该)(怎)(样)(选)(择)(?
2019年)(,对)(于)(全)(球)(投)(资)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,既)(是)(机)(会)(,又)(是)(挑)(战)(。不)(过)(,与)(往)(年)(相)(比)(,全)(球)(金)(融)(市)(场)(却)(呈)(现)(出)(明)(显)(的)(分)(化)(状)(态)(。例)(如)(,以)(A股)(、港)(股)(为)(代)(表)(的)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(股)(市)(,却)(经)(过)(了)(大)(幅)(调)(整)(的)(走)(势)(后)(,逐)(渐)(具)(备)(较)(好)(的)(估)(值)(优)(势)(。与)(之)(相)(比)(,美)(股)(市)(场)(依)(旧)(处)(于)(历)(史)(高)(位)(区)(域)(,随)(着)(2018年)(美)(股)(市)(场)(涨)(速)(的)(明)(显)(放)(缓)(,对)(2019年)(的)(市)(场)(行)(情)(,更)(是)(存)(在)(着)(更)(多)(的)(未)(知)(风)(险)(。
实)(际)(上)(,在)(投)(资)(者)(看)(来)(,美)(股)(、港)(股)(以)(及)(A股)(市)(场)(,当)(属)(当)(前)(全)(球)(市)(场)(中)(比)(较)(主)(要)(的)(投)(资)(市)(场)(,而)(且)(也)(是)(全)(球)(投)(资)(者)(最)(容)(易)(关)(注)(到)(的)(市)(场)(。
其)(中)(,对)(于)(美)(股)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,本)(身)(属)(于)(全)(球)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(龙)(头)(,而)(这)(些)(年)(来)(美)(股)(市)(场)(的)(涨)(跌)(走)(势)(往)(往)(会)(深)(刻)(影)(响)(到)(全)(球)(股)(票)(市)(场)(,尤)(其)(是)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(股)(市)(的)(表)(现)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,因)(美)(股)(市)(场)(已)(经)(具)(有)(上)(百)(年)(的)(历)(史)(,市)(场)(自)(身)(的)(运)(作)(机)(制)(以)(及)(优)(胜)(劣)(汰)(功)(能)(比)(较)(成)(熟)(,美)(股)(市)(场)(的)(交)(易)(制)(度)(更)(容)(易)(获)(得)(其)(余)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(学)(习)(与)(模)(仿)(。
不)(可)(否)(认)(的)(是)(,就)(目)(前)(而)(言)(,笔)(者)(认)(为)(,美)(股)(市)(场)(在)(全)(球)(资)(本)(市)(场)(中)(的)(地)(位)(还)(是)(比)(较)(高)(的)(,仍)(然)(具)(备)(较)(高)(的)(话)(语)(权)(与)(影)(响)(力)(。对)(于)(长)(期)(而)(言)(,美)(股)(市)(场)(的)(投)(资)(吸)(引)(力)(仍)(然)(很)(强)(,但)(中)(短)(期)(而)(言)(,美)(股)(市)(场)(却)(面)(临)(着)(中)(期)(调)(整)(的)(压)(力)(,终)(究)(目)(前)(美)(股)(市)(场)(处)(于)(历)(史)(高)(位)(区)(域)(,且)(整)(体)(估)(值)(水)(平)(处)(于)(过)(去)(十)(年)(的)(估)(值)(上)(限)(水)(平)(,这)(对)(于)(美)(股)(市)(场)(的)(后)(续)(表)(现)(构)(成)(一)(定)(的)(压)(制)(。
再)(者)(,对)(于)(港)(股)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,其)(走)(势)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(受)(到)(美)(股)(与)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(,整)(体)(运)(行)(趋)(势)(更)(偏)(向)(于)(A股)(市)(场)(。不)(过)(,与)(美)(股)(市)(场)(、A股)(市)(场)(相)(比)(,港)(股)(市)(场)(往)(往)(具)(有)(更)(低)(廉)(的)(估)(值)(优)(势)(,而)(AH股)(溢)(价)(率)(,H股)(往)(往)(会)(具)(有)(较)(大)(的)(折)(价)(率)(空)(间)(,价)(值)(投)(资)(的)(角)(度)(往)(往)(更)(具)(有)(优)(势)(。
但)(是)(,港)(股)(市)(场)(的)(低)(估)(值)(本)(身)(还)(是)(具)(有)(一)(定)(的)(隐)(蔽)(风)(险)(,例)(如)(部)(分)(老)(千)(股)(本)(身)(具)(备)(低)(价)(、低)(估)(值)(的)(特)(征)(,但)(实)(际)(上)(却)(存)(在)(不)(少)(的)(隐)(藏)(风)(险)(,对)(于)(港)(股)(投)(资)(,投)(资)(者)(更)(需)(要)(打)(起)(十)(二)(分)(精)(神)(,否)(则)(很)(容)(易)(深)(陷)(投)(资)(陷)(阱)(,得)(不)(偿)(失)(。
此)(外)(,则)(是)(对)(于)(A股)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,经)(过)(了)(过)(去)(三)(年)(半)(时)(间)(的)(深)(度)(调)(整)(,目)(前)(A股)(市)(场)(已)(经)(处)(于)(历)(史)(估)(值)(底)(部)(区)(域)(,但)(仍)(与)(港)(股)(市)(场)(的)(超)(低)(估)(值)(存)(在)(些)(许)(的)(距)(离)(。不)(过)(,对)(于)(如)(上)(证)(50等)(核)(心)(标)(的)(的)(平)(均)(估)(值)(水)(平)(,实)(际)(上)(已)(经)(非)(常)(接)(近)(港)(股)(市)(场)(的)(平)(均)(估)(值)(水)(平)(,而)(AH股)(溢)(价)(率)(的)(持)(续)(收)(窄)(,也)(是)(一)(种)(真)(实)(反)(映)(。
不)(过)(,对)(于)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(上)(市)(公)(司)(表)(现)(,仍)(然)(存)(在)(一)(定)(的)(分)(化)(表)(现)(,估)(值)(中)(位)(数)(仍)(有)(持)(续)(压)(缩)(的)(空)(间)(。但)(是)(,对)(于)(A股)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,核)(心)(标)(的)(对)(股)(市)(估)(值)(的)(探)(底)(回)(稳)(起)(到)(非)(常)(重)(要)(的)(影)(响)(。对)(于)(A股)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,流)(动)(性)(较)(强)(是)(最)(大)(的)(优)(势)(,但)(扩)(容)(压)(力)(大)(、减)(持)(需)(求)(旺)(盛)(以)(及)(优)(胜)(劣)(汰)(功)(能)(较)(弱)(,则)(是)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(劣)(势)(所)(在)(。
对)(于)(即)(将)(到)(来)(的)(2019年)(,对)(于)(资)(本)(市)(场)(而)(言)(,本)(身)(具)(有)(较)(大)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(。不)(过)(,对)(于)(美)(股)(、港)(股)(以)(及)(A股)(市)(场)(,2019年)(难)(免)(会)(进)(一)(步)(加)(剧)(分)(化)(的)(局)(面)(。相)(对)(而)(言)(,美)(股)(市)(场)(可)(能)(处)(于)(风)(险)(逐)(渐)(释)(放)(的)(过)(程)(,而)(A股)(与)(港)(股)(市)(场)(可)(能)(会)(延)(续)(筑)(底)(的)(过)(程)(,但)(风)(险)(释)(放)(压)(力)(会)(低)(于)(美)(股)(市)(场)(。
不)(过)(,对)(于)(投)(资)(标)(的)(的)(选)(择)(,可)(能)(会)(比)(市)(场)(指)(数)(的)(分)(析)(与)(判)(断)(更)(具)(参)(考)(性)(。
实)(际)(上)(,参)(考)(美)(股)(市)(场)(长)(达)(近)(十)(年)(的)(大)(牛)(市)(行)(情)(,其)(实)(基)(本)(上)(以)(苹)(果)(、亚)(马)(逊)(、英)(伟)(达)(等)(巨)(头)(企)(业)(作)(为)(主)(导)(,但)(不)(少)(美)(股)(上)(市)(公)(司)(的)(表)(现)(并)(未)(与)(市)(场)(涨)(幅)(同)(步)(。与)(其)(说)(过)(去)(十)(年)(属)(于)(美)(股)(市)(场)(的)(大)(牛)(市)(行)(情)(,还)(不)(如)(说)(过)(去)(十)(年)(属)(于)(苹)(果)(、亚)(马)(逊)(等)(巨)(头)(企)(业)(的)(黄)(金)(发)(展)(期)(。
由)(此)(可)(见)(,对)(于)(2019年)(的)(美)(股)(市)(场)(,假)(如)(苹)(果)(、亚)(马)(逊)(等)(巨)(头)(企)(业)(纷)(纷)(确)(立)(熊)(市)(行)(情)(,那)(么)(2019年)(美)(股)(市)(场)(陷)(入)(熊)(市)(的)(概)(率)(骤)(然)(提)(升)(。不)(过)(,如)(果)(这)(类)(巨)(头)(企)(业)(可)(以)(提)(前)(完)(成)(探)(底)(过)(程)(,并)(率)(先)(释)(放)(出)(调)(整)(风)(险)(,反)(而)(有)(利)(于)(提)(升)(美)(股)(市)(场)(的)(稳)(定)(性)(。长)(期)(而)(言)(,美)(股)(市)(场)(还)(是)(值)(得)(期)(待)(,但)(中)(短)(期)(角)(度)(,美)(股)(步)(入)(中)(期)(调)(整)(的)(可)(能)(性)(较)(大)(。
至)(于)(港)(股)(市)(场)(与)(A股)(市)(场)(,在)(2019年)(同)(样)(需)(要)(紧)(盯)(最)(核)(心)(的)(权)(重)(股)(,例)(如)(港)(股)(市)(场)(的)(腾)(讯)(、A股)(市)(场)(的)(中)(国)(平)(安)(、贵)(州)(茅)(台)(等)(,这)(些)(都)(是)(市)(场)(走)(向)(的)(风)(向)(标)(品)(种)(。不)(过)(,换)(一)(种)(角)(度)(思)(考)(,对)(于)(投)(资)(者)(而)(言)(,可)(以)(通)(过)(ETF参)(与)(A股)(或)(港)(股)(,而)(后)(等)(待)(美)(股)(市)(场)(调)(整)(到)(一)(定)(空)(间)(后)(,再)(通)(过)(QDII的)(方)(式)(间)(接)(参)(与)(美)(股)(市)(场)(的)(投)(资)(,这)(也)(是)(一)(种)(比)(较)(稳)(妥)(的)(投)(资)(策)(略)(,也)(是)(把)(风)(险)(分)(散)(化)(的)(应)(对)(方)(式)(。
不)(过)(,考)(虑)(到)(2019年)(仍)(然)(属)(于)(全)(球)(金)(融)(市)(场)(风)(险)(释)(放)(的)(延)(续)(期)(,投)(资)(者)(在)(股)(票)(资)(产)(的)(配)(置)(比)(例)(上)(仍)(需)(要)(保)(持)(一)(定)(的)(谨)(慎)(与)(理)(性)(,股)(票)(资)(产)(配)(置)(比)(例)(适)(宜)(控)(制)(在)(家)(庭)(总)(资)(产)(的)(30%以)(下)(的)(比)(例)(,通)(过)(资)(产)(分)(散)(配)(置)(实)(现)(风)(险)(的)(分)(散)(化)(,也)(许)(是)(未)(来)(一)(段)(时)(期)(稳)(妥)(的)(投)(资)(策)(略)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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