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风格转换或变震荡慢牛

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月22日 19:48:54
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(  希)(腊)(股)(市)(的)(急)(转)(直)(下)(以)(及)(欧)(洲)(股)(市)(的)(哀)(嚎)(也)(带)(动)(12月)(9日)(美)(股)(市)(场)(震)(荡)(,然)(而)(喜)(剧)(性)(的)(是)(,美)(股)(跌)(幅)(大)(幅)(缩)(小)(,纳)(斯)(达)(克)(甚)(至)(转)(跌)(为)(升)(,这)(似)(乎)(也)(预)(示)(着)(明)(年)(的)(美)(股)(市)(场)(:震)(荡)(下)(走)(高)(。  自)(金)(融)(危)(机)(后)(,美)(股)(的)(牛)(市)(已)(接)(近)(6年)(时)(间)(。当)(市)(场)(一)(直)(强)(调)(美)(股)(估)(值)(过)(高)(时)(,美)(股)(却)(依)(旧)(任)(性)(走)(高)(。  其)(实)(,从)(如)(今)(数)(据)(分)(析)(来)(看)(,美)(股)(持)(续)(走)(强)(背)(后)(的)(逻)(辑)(较)(为)(简)(单)(—股)(市)(回)(购)(、经)(济)(复)(苏)(依)(旧)(量)(化)(宽)(松)((QE)政)(策)(释)(放)(的)(大)(量)(流)(动)(性)(。  首)(先)(,推)(动)(美)(股)(股)(价)(持)(续)(上)(升)(的)(主)(要)(力)(量)(可)(能)(就)(是)(股)(市)(回)(购)(。  数)(据)(显)(示)(,2009年)(第)(二)(季)(度)(至)(2014年)(第)(二)(季)(度)(以)(来)(,标)(准)(普)(尔)(500指)(数)(成)(份)(股)(公)(司)(用)(于)(股)(票)(回)(购)(的)(资)(金)(已)(经)(达)(到)(2万)(亿)(美)(元)(,而)(上)(述)(公)(司)(2009年)(第)(二)(季)(度)(以)(来)(的)(运)(营)(利)(润)(为)(4.4万)(亿)(美)(元)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(回)(购)(股)(票)(资)(金)(已)(经)(占)(到)(上)(市)(公)(司)(盈)(利)(的)(45%,今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(这)(一)(比)(重)(超)(过)(50%。  彭)(博)(和)(标)(准)(普)(尔)(、道)(琼)(斯)(等)(指)(数)(公)(司)(收)(集)(的)(数)(据)(也)(显)(示)(,美)(股)(公)(司)(今)(年)(用)(于)(股)(票)(回)(购)(和)(派)(息)(上)(的)(支)(出)(有)(望)(达)(到)(9140亿)(美)(元)(,约)(为)(全)(部)(盈)(利)(的)(95%。  其)(次)(,往)(往)(股)(市)(走)(势)(是)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(先)(行)(指)(标)(。自)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(正)(在)(持)(续)(恢)(复)(,尤)(其)(今)(年)(以)(来)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(更)(是)(喜)(人)(。由)(于)(天)(气)(原)(因)(,第)(一)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(速)(的)(减)(缓)(属)(于)(必)(然)(。而)(第)(二)(季)(度)(、第)(三)(季)(度)(GDP增)(速)(分)(别)(达)(到)(4.6%、3.5%。  最)(后)(,自)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(,美)(联)(储)(QE政)(策)(所)(营)(造)(出)(的)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(环)(境)(以)(及)(充)(沛)(的)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(环)(境)(成)(为)(推)(动)(美)(股)(强)(势)(上)(涨)(的)(推)(动)(力)(。所)(以)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(,美)(股)(市)(场)(基)(本)(处)(于)(牛)(市)(阶)(段)(。  不)(过)(,如)(今)(QE已)(经)(正)(式)(结)(束)(,明)(年)(美)(股)(市)(场)(是)(否)(仍)(能)(维)(持)(牛)(市)(已)(成)(市)(场)(争)(论)(焦)(点)(。  从)(目)(前)(情)(况)(来)(看)(,美)(股)(牛)(市)(仍)(将)(延)(续)(,不)(过)(将)(从)(“快)(牛)(”转)(变)(成)(为)(“慢)(牛)(”,而)(且)(之)(前)(平)(稳)(上)(涨)(将)(转)(变)(为)(震)(荡)(上)(升)(。  分)(开)(来)(说)(,由)(于)(美)(联)(储)(正)(式)(终)(结)(QE,虽)(然)(市)(场)(中)(的)(流)(动)(性)(仍)(旧)(存)(在)(,但)(是)(暂)(无)(其)(他)(大)(量)(流)(动)(性)(补)(充)(进)(美)(股)(,这)(就)(使)(得)(美)(股)(之)(前)(上)(涨)(的)(力)(度)(有)(所)(减)(缓)(,这)(也)(是)(近)(来)(美)(股)(震)(荡)(幅)(度)(加)(大)(的)(原)(因)(。重)(阳)(投)(资)(总)(裁)(王)(庆)(在)(接)(受)(《第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(》专)(访)(时)(就)(曾)(表)(示)(,QE退)(出)(计)(划)(早)(就)(公)(布)(,短)(期)(内)(只)(会)(使)(得)(波)(动)(性)(加)(大)(,并)(不)(会)(对)(美)(股)(长)(期)(走)(势)(造)(成)(影)(响)(。只)(不)(过)(,美)(股)(有)(可)(能)(从)(之)(前)(的)(强)(势)(牛)(市)(进)(入)(“慢)(牛)(”行)(情)(。  然)(而)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(依)(旧)(,加)(之)(美)(股)(上)(市)(公)(司)(也)(在)(继)(续)(回)(购)(公)(司)(股)(份)(,这)(将)(导)(致)(公)(司)(股)(价)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(,也)(意)(味)(着)(股)(指)(还)(将)(处)(于)(上)(升)(通)(道)(中)(。  与)(此)(同)(时)(,由)(于)(美)(国)(经)(济)(前)(景)(导)(致)(的)(美)(元)(指)(数)(上)(涨)(也)(将)(吸)(引)(全)(球)(资)(金)(重)(新)(思)(考)(资)(产)(配)(置)(问)(题)(,届)(时)(美)(元)(资)(产)(将)(获)(青)(睐)(。  对)(于)(股)(票)(配)(置)(方)(面)(,分)(析)(人)(士)(指)(出)(,“慢)(牛)(”行)(情)(中)(,投)(资)(者)(需)(要)(注)(重)(仓)(位)(控)(制)(问)(题)(,部)(分)(对)(冲)(策)(略)(结)(合)(使)(用)(。由)(于)(今)(年)(原)(油)(价)(格)(的)(跌)(幅)(问)(题)(,投)(资)(者)(可)(以)(重)(点)(关)(注)(原)(油)(多)(头)(策)(略)(方)(面)(的)(ETF或)(者)(能)(源)(类)(个)(股)(。这)(或)(将)(成)(为)(明)(年)(主)(要)(趋)(势)(之)(一)(。  作)(者)(:戴)(金)(鸿)(
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