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【泽平宏观】内外需全面复苏,新周期超预期——点评1

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月26日 11:32:27
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(原)(标)(题)(:【泽)(平)(宏)(观)(】内)(外)(需)(全)(面)(复)(苏)(,新)(周)(期)(超)(预)(期)(——点)(评)(1-2月)(经)(济)(数)(据)(
文)(:方)(正)(宏)(观)(任)(泽)(平)(联)(系)(人)(:卢)(亮)(亮)(
事)(件)(:中)(国)(1-2月)(规)(模)(以)(上)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(同)(比)(增)(6.3%,预)(期)(6.2%,前)(值)(6%。2月)(全)(国)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)((不)(含)(农)(户)()同)(比)(名)(义)(增)(长)(8.9%,预)(期)(8.8%,前)(值)(8.1%。2月)(全)(国)(社)(会)(消)(费)(品)(零)(售)(总)(额)(同)(比)(9.5%,预)(期)(10.5%,前)(值)(10.9%。
1)核)(心)(观)(点)(:内)(外)(需)(全)(面)(复)(苏)(,出)(口)(、制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(、房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(、基)(建)(等)(均)(超)(预)(期)(回)(升)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(周)(期)(正)(从)(衰)(退)(走)(向)(复)(苏)(。驱)(动)(因)(素)(来)(自)(于)(美)(国)(经)(济)(加)(速)(对)(中)(国)(出)(口)(和)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(的)(外)(溢)(,地)(方)(政)(府)(换)(届)(后)(基)(建)(投)(资)(冲)(动)(,一)(二)(线)(和)(部)(分)(三)(四)(线)(地)(产)(补)(库)(需)(求)(,实)(际)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(较)(低)(企)(业)(融)(资)(需)(求)(旺)(盛)(,但)(是)(消)(费)(受)(汽)(车)(消)(费)(拖)(累)(名)(义)(和)(实)(际)(增)(速)(双)(回)(落)(。受)(益)(于)(需)(求)(复)(苏)(和)(供)(给)(出)(清)(,实)(际)(GDP增)(速)(L型)(、名)(义)(GDP增)(速)(U型)(,供)(给)(出)(清)(企)(业)(业)(绩)(持)(续)(改)(善)(“新)(5%比)(旧)(8%好)(”,剩)(者)(为)(王)(,强)(者)(恒)(强)(。从)(中)(长)(期)(角)(度)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(可)(能)(已)(经)(告)(别)(了)(过)(去)(长)(达)(6年)(的)(去)(产)(能)(、通)(缩)(和)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(调)(整)(,我)(们)(正)(站)(在)(新)(周)(期)(的)(起)(点)(上)(,维)(持)(A股)(结)(构)(性)(牛)(市)(=新)(周)(期)(+低)(估)(值)(真)(成)(长)(+改)(革)(判)(断)(。潜)(在)(的)(风)(险)(来)(自)(美)(联)(储)(超)(预)(期)(加)(息)(和)(国)(内)(货)(币)(收)(紧)(。
2)工)(业)(生)(产)(回)(升)(,中)(游)(崛)(起)(,高)(端)(制)(造)(业)(持)(续)(高)(增)(。1-2月)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(同)(比)(6.3%,较)(2016年)(12月)(加)(快)(0.3个)(点)(。分)(门)(类)(看)(,制)(造)(业)(是)(工)(增)(回)(升)(的)(驱)(动)(力)(,采)(矿)(业)(增)(加)(值)(同)(比)(下)(降)(3.6%;制)(造)(业)(增)(长)(6.9%;电)(热)(燃)(水)(的)(生)(产)(和)(供)(应)(业)(增)(长)(8.4%,行)(业)(增)(速)(分)(别)(变)(化)(了)(-1.1,0.6和)(0.4个)(点)(。分)(行)(业)(看)(,以)(通)(用)(设)(备)(、专)(用)(设)(备)(、铁)(路)(航)(空)(航)(天)(设)(备)(以)(及)(汽)(车)(制)(造)(业)(等)(行)(业)(增)(速)(都)(有)(明)(显)(提)(高)(;传)(统)(工)(业)(如)(黑)(色)(、有)(色)(以)(及)(水)(泥)(等)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(行)(业)(在)(产)(能)(出)(清)(和)(需)(求)(复)(苏)(的)(情)(况)(下)(生)(产)(回)(暖)(,工)(业)(增)(速)(分)(别)(提)(高)(了)(4.0,0.4和)(1.1个)(点)(。化)(工)(行)(业)(增)(速)(也)(提)(高)(了)(2.1个)(点)(。东)(北)(地)(区)(工)(业)(降)(幅)(继)(续)(缩)(窄)(,1-2月)(较)(上)(月)(提)(升)(了)(1.7个)(点)(。
3)投)(资)(延)(续)(回)(升)(,基)(建)(地)(产)(超)(预)(期)(,地)(方)(投)(资)(冲)(动)(中)(央)(冷)(地)(方)(热)(。1-2月)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(累)(计)(增)(速)(8.9%,增)(速)(比)(去)(年)(全)(年)(提)(高)(0.8个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(,1-2月)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(投)(资)(同)(比)(8.9%,高)(于)(去)(年)(全)(年)(增)(速)(6.9%;制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(累)(计)(增)(长)(4.3%,比)(去)(年)(增)(速)(提)(高)(了)(0.1个)(点)(,受)(益)(于)(2016年)(下)(半)(年)(以)(来)(出)(口)(回)(升)(,1-2月)(工)(业)(企)(业)(实)(现)(出)(口)(交)(货)(值)(17019亿)(元)(,同)(比)(名)(义)(增)(长)(8.8%;基)(建)(投)(资)(累)(计)(同)(比)(增)(21.3%,增)(速)(比)(2016年)(上)(升)(了)(5.6个)(点)(,也)(高)(于)(2016年)(同)(期)(增)(速)(;其)(中)(公)(共)(管)(理)(业)(投)(资)(和)(道)(路)(运)(输)(投)(资)(增)(速)(均)(有)(明)(显)(上)(涨)(,分)(别)(提)(高)(了)(12.9和)(6.5个)(点)(。施)(工)(项)(目)(计)(划)(总)(投)(资)(增)(长)(22%,增)(速)(比)(去)(年)(全)(年)(提)(高)(12个)(百)(分)(点)(。中)(央)(和)(地)(方)(的)(投)(资)(分)(化)(,中)(央)(项)(目)(投)(资)(同)(比)(下)(降)(7%,去)(年)(全)(年)(为)(增)(长)(4.9%,地)(方)(项)(目)(投)(资)(39975亿)(元)(,增)(长)(9.5%,增)(速)(比)(去)(年)(全)(年)(提)(高)(1.2个)(百)(分)(点)(,可)(能)(跟)(政)(府)(换)(届)(后)(投)(资)(冲)(动)(和)(PPP超)(预)(期)(有)(关)(。新)(开)(工)(项)(目)(计)(划)(总)(投)(资)(也)(下)(降)(了)(8.3%,全)(年)(同)(比)(20.9%,增)(速)(明)(显)(回)(落)(。
4)地)(产)(投)(资)(超)(预)(期)(回)(升)(,受)(益)(于)(一)(二)(线)(和)(部)(分)(三)(四)(线)(补)(库)(存)(,土)(地)(购)(置)(和)(地)(产)(新)(开)(工)(投)(资)(持)(续)(回)(升)(。1-2月)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(8.9%,低)(于)(2016年)(12月)(的)(单)(月)(增)(速)(11.1%但)(高)(于)(去)(年)(同)(期)(增)(速)(3.0%。施)(工)(面)(积)(同)(比)(增)(长)(3.2%,增)(速)(与)(去)(年)(全)(年)(增)(速)(持)(平)(;房)(屋)(新)(开)(工)(面)(积)(增)(长)(10.4%,增)(速)(提)(高)(2.3个)(百)(分)(点)(。1-2月)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(到)(位)(资)(金)(同)(比)(增)(长)(7.0%,增)(速)(比)(去)(年)(全)(年)(回)(落)(8.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。1-2月)(份)(,房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(土)(地)(购)(置)(面)(积)(同)(比)(增)(长)(6.2%,较)(去)(年)(全)(年)(同)(比)(提)(高)(了)(9.6个)(百)(分)(点)(,开)(发)(商)(补)(库)(存)(意)(愿)(比)(较)(强)(烈)(。房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(景)(气)(指)(数)(仍)(处)(于)(2016年)(以)(来)(的)(第)(三)(高)(位)(。考)(虑)(到)(一)(线)(、部)(分)(二)(三)(四)(线)(补)(库)(存)(,我)(们)(上)(调)(2017年)(全)(国)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(至)(4%、上)(半)(年)(5%。
5)民)(间)(投)(资)(增)(速)(回)(升)(,受)(益)(于)(第)(三)(产)(业)(的)(民)(间)(投)(资)(明)(显)(改)(善)(。17年)(1-2月)(民)(间)(投)(资)(6.7%,增)(速)(比)(去)(年)(全)(年)(提)(高)(3.5个)(百)(分)(点)(,增)(速)(保)(持)(上)(行)(趋)(势)(。分)(产)(业)(看)(,一)(三)(产)(业)(的)(民)(间)(增)(速)(分)(别)(提)(高)(了)(0.8和)(7.4个)(百)(分)(点)(,而)(第)(二)(产)(业)(则)(下)(滑)(了)(0.3个)(点)(。分)(地)(区)(看)(,东)(部)(和)(中)(部)(地)(区)(的)(民)(间)(投)(资)(增)(速)(分)(别)(提)(高)(了)(2.1和)(3.1个)(点)(,而)(西)(部)(和)(东)(北)(地)(区)(增)(速)(则)(下)(行)(了)(1.4和)(16.9个)(点)(。
6)受)(汽)(车)(消)(费)(明)(显)(回)(落)(拖)(累)(,消)(费)(名)(义)(和)(实)(际)(增)(速)(双)(双)(明)(显)(下)(滑)(。1-2月)(消)(费)(名)(义)(增)(速)(9.5%,比)(12月)(下)(降)(了)(1.4个)(点)(;实)(际)(增)(速)(8.1%,亦)(下)(滑)(了)(1.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(,餐)(饮)(收)(入)(同)(比)(增)(长)(10.6%,持)(平)(去)(年)(;商)(品)(零)(售)(增)(速)(9.4%,较)(去)(年)(12月)(回)(落)(了)(1.5个)(百)(分)(点)(;2016年)(在)(汽)(车)(消)(费)(政)(策)(的)(刺)(激)(下)(,汽)(车)(消)(费)(透)(支)(了)(2017年)(的)(潜)(力)(;1-2月)(汽)(车)(消)(费)(同)(比)(由)(11月)(的)(13.1%和)(12月)(的)(14.4%骤)(降)(至)(-1.0%。油)(价)(上)(涨)(造)(成)(油)(制)(品)(消)(费)(额)(上)(升)(,1-2月)(同)(比)(上)(升)(了)(6.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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