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广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

公募基金的平民时代——

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月18日 17:01:40
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分分彩龙虎规则平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ【3514565791】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。公募基金的平民时代——

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(  纵)(观)(基)(金)(三)(季)(报)(,上)(个)(季)(度)(的)(投)(资)(业)(绩)(只)(能)(用)(“平)(平)(”二)(字)(评)(价)(,1100多)(只)(偏)(股)(型)(基)(金)(在)(三)(季)(度)(里)(平)(均)(亏)(损)(20%左)(右)(,与)(其)(他)(机)(构)(乃)(至)(有)(经)(验)(的)(个)(人)(大)(户)(的)(平)(均)(收)(获)(并)(无)(太)(多)(差)(异)(。  从)(业)(绩)(基)(准)(看)(,公)(募)(偏)(股)(基)(金)(的)(平)(均)(收)(益)(虽)(然)(跑)(赢)(了)(创)(业)(板)(指)(和)(沪)(深)(300指)(数)(,但)(是)(考)(虑)(二)(季)(度)(末)(基)(金)(仓)(位)(已)(经)(降)(低)(到)(了)(六)(成)(以)(下)(,基)(金)(经)(理)(实)(际)(的)(股)(票)(投)(资)(收)(益)(很)(难)(说)(超)(过)(了)(指)(数)(投)(资)(。  纵)(观)(基)(金)(经)(理)(的)(业)(绩)(陈)(述)(,亦)(难)(觅)(当)(年)(那)(样)(“一)(针)(见)(血)(”的)(市)(场)(认)(知)(、妙)(笔)(横)(生)(的)(文)(章)(佳)(句)(、颇)(有)(前)(瞻)(的)(思)(辨)(和)(预)(判)(。  可)(见)(,在)(已)(经)(展)(开)(近)(两)(年)(的)(股)(市)(新)(牛)(市)(里)(,公)(募)(基)(金)(经)(理)(整)(体)(仍)(处)(于)(“适)(应)(”和)(“过)(渡)(”之)(中)(。未)(来)(几)(年)(,公)(募)(基)(金)(更)(能)(依)(靠)(的)(或)(许)(是)(制)(度)(优)(势)(、团)(队)(作)(战)(和)(工)(具)(类)(产)(品)(的)(供)(给)(,而)(不)(是)(基)(金)(经)(理)(的)(个)(人)(投)(资)(决)(断)(。  ⊙本)(报)(记)(者)(周)(宏)(  战)(略)(:防)(御)(、防)(御)(、再)(防)(御)(  如)(果)(把)(2015年)(上)(半)(年)(,公)(募)(基)(金)(的)(投)(资)(思)(维)(定)(义)(为)(“进)(攻)(、进)(攻)(、再)(进)(攻)(”的)(话)(,那)(么)(2015年)(6月)(开)(始)(,公)(募)(基)(金)(整)(体)(已)(转)(向)(防)(御)(。这)(个)(姿)(态)(,直)(至)(9月)(30日)(仍)(在)(保)(持)(。  根)(据)(天)(相)(对)(基)(金)(仓)(位)(的)(统)(计)(,截)(至)(2015年)(三)(季)(度)(末)(,全)(部)(基)(金)(的)(平)(均)(仓)(位)(为)(56.86%,仅)(比)(上)(一)(季)(度)(末)(小)(幅)(回)(升)(了)(2.45个)(百)(分)(点)(。这)(个)(仓)(位)(仍)(然)(处)(于)(历)(史)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。  从)(分)(类)(基)(金)(看)(,混)(合)(型)(基)(金)(在)(上)(个)(季)(度)(末)(,创)(造)(33.95%的)(历)(史)(最)(空)(头)(仓)(位)(后)(,本)(季)(度)(大)(幅)(回)(升)(到)(了)(58.73%。  但)(这)(很)(难)(说)(是)(一)(个)(乐)(观)(的)(观)(点)(表)(现)(。考)(虑)(到)(上)(一)(季)(度)(末)(,股)(市)(正)(处)(于)(连)(续)(大)(跌)(、千)(股)(跌)(停)(的)(罕)(见)(时)(期)(。现)(在)(的)(部)(分)(混)(合)(型)(基)(金)(经)(理)(的)(操)(作)(,可)(能)(是)(在)(当)(时)(极)(限)(的)(仓)(位)(表)(达)(之)(后)(的)(一)(次)(正)(常)(化)(布)(局)(。  另)(一)(类)(主)(力)(基)(金)(、股)(票)(型)(基)(金)(的)(平)(均)(仓)(位)(则)(小)(幅)(下)(降)(到)(84.48%,后)(者)(已)(经)(抵)(近)(新)(法)(规)(要)(求)(的)(仓)(位)(下)(限)(。  开)(放)(式)(基)(金)(整)(体)(的)(仓)(位)(还)(略)(为)(有)(所)(回)(升)(,封)(闭)(式)(基)(金)(的)(仓)(位)(则)(下)(降)(得)(更)(快)(,上)(一)(季)(度)(末)(,封)(闭)(式)(基)(金)(平)(均)(仓)(位)(是)(66.39%,这)(一)(期)(是)(56.00%,比)(想)(象)(中)(更)(低)(一)(些)(。  具)(体)(基)(金)(中)(,这)(种)(防)(御)(性)(思)(维)(表)(现)(得)(更)(明)(显)(一)(些)(。  上)(一)(季)(度)(末)(,基)(金)(仓)(位)(在)(5%以)(下)(的)(“空)(仓)(群)(体)(”,有)(102只)(。这)(一)(季)(度)(末)(,空)(仓)(群)(体)(者)(上)(升)(到)(了)(196只)((其)(中)(,包)(括)(部)(分)(未)(过)(建)(仓)(期)(的)(新)(基)(金)()。这)(说)(明)(,在)(经)(历)(了)(一)(个)(季)(度)(的)(调)(仓)(后)(,有)(更)(多)(基)(金)(经)(理)(选)(择)(了)(空)(仓)(以)(对)(未)(来)(的)(市)(场)(波)(动)(。  当)(然)(,不)(可)(否)(认)(的)(是)(,上)(一)(季)(度)(末)(,基)(金)(仓)(位)(超)(过)(95%的)(只)(有)(40余)(只)(,而)(本)(季)(度)(末)(有)(225只)(。这)(好)(像)(映)(证)(了)(部)(分)(基)(金)(重)(新)(启)(动)(“高)(仓)(位)(战)(术)(”,以)(参)(与)(年)(末)(“吃)(饭)(行)(情)(”的)(说)(法)(。当)(然)(,我)(们)(也)(同)(时)(关)(注)(到)(,这)(225只)(高)(仓)(位)(基)(金)(在)(三)(季)(度)(中)(平)(均)(亏)(损)(了)(25%的)(业)(绩)(报)(酬)(,这)(个)(比)(例)(明)(显)(高)(于)(行)(业)(同)(业)(水)(平)(。  总)(体)(上)(,以)(行)(业)(六)(成)(仓)(位)(的)(平)(均)(水)(平)(来)(估)(测)(,2015年)(三)(季)(度)(,公)(募)(偏)(股)(基)(金)(平)(均)(20%上)(下)(的)(亏)(损)(额)(,提)(示)(了)(一)(个)(很)(直)(接)(的)(投)(资)(结)(果)(,即)(基)(金)(组)(合)(的)(投)(资)(效)(率)(整)(体)(上)(似)(乎)(比)(指)(数)(化)(投)(资)(还)(要)(差)(一)(些)(。(以)(沪)(深)(300指)(数)(28%的)(季)(度)(亏)(损)(推)(测)(。)  虽)(然)(,其)(中)(可)(能)(有)(多)(种)(体)(制)(外)(的)(原)(因)(,但)(亦)(非)(常)(直)(观)(的)(表)(明)(,基)(金)(重)(仓)(股)(在)(过)(去)(下)(跌)(的)(三)(季)(度)(中)(,并)(不)(具)(备)(更)(好)(防)(御)(的)(能)(力)(。  策)(略)(:从)(非)(常)(到)(正)(常)(  基)(金)(经)(理)(的)(策)(略)(陈)(述)(,仍)(然)(是)(我)(们)(关)(注)(的)(一)(个)(重)(点)(。但)(是)(比)(较)(遗)(憾)(的)(是)(,本)(轮)(业)(绩)(表)(现)(出)(色)(的)(基)(金)(经)(理)(,似)(乎)(都)(没)(能)(很)(好)(地)(阐)(述)(其)(投)(资)(的)(思)(维)(和)(方)(法)(。在)(一)(轮)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(之)(后)(,基)(金)(经)(理)(更)(多)(的)(描)(述)(对)(市)(场)(的)(观)(察)(,对)(宏)(观)(的)(判)(断)(。但)(是)(对)(如)(今)(市)(场)(中)(线)(运)(作)(机)(理)(的)(叙)(述)(,少)(之)(又)(少)(。  北)(京)(泰)(达)(宏)(利)(的)(基)(金)(经)(理)(在)(业)(绩)(报)(告)(中)(坦)(诚)(了)(7月)(初)(市)(场)(对)(于)(基)(金)(经)(理)(操)(作)(的)(巨)(大)(冲)(击)(,他)(称)(,7月)(初)(市)(场)(的)(剧)(烈)(波)(动)(给)(了)(基)(金)(操)(作)(非)(常)(大)(的)(困)(难)(。  “第)(三)(季)(度)(,市)(场)(出)(现)(了)(剧)(烈)(的)(波)(动)(。7月)(初)(上)(证)(综)(指)(和)(创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(均)(大)(幅)(度)(下)(跌)(,这)(种)(趋)(势)(一)(直)(持)(续)(到)(7月)(8日)(。随)(后)(市)(场)(出)(现)(了)(三)(天)(大)(幅)(度)(反)(弹)(,此)(后)(展)(开)(震)(荡)(。这)(种)(态)(势)(一)(直)(持)(续)(到)(8月)(17日)(,随)(后)(市)(场)(又)(展)(开)(了)(一)(轮)(急)(速)(的)(杀)(跌)(。在)(7个)(交)(易)(日)(中)(跌)(幅)(超)(过)(了)(1000点)(。随)(后)(继)(续)(展)(开)(震)(荡)(。这)(一)(个)(季)(度)(市)(场)(经)(历)(了)(从)(极)(度)(恐)(慌)(到)(极)(度)(亢)(奋)(再)(到)(极)(度)(恐)(慌)(的)(过)(程)(。风)(险)(偏)(好)(的)(剧)(烈)(变)(化)(导)(致)(很)(多)(股)(票)(持)(续)(在)(跌)(停)(和)(涨)(停)(的)(状)(态)(中)(来)(回)(波)(动)(。这)(给)(基)(金)(经)(理)(的)(操)(作)(造)(成)(了)(很)(大)(的)(困)(难)(。”  “(我)(们)()在)(7月)(初)(,基)(金)(将)(保)(持)(流)(动)(性)(作)(为)(重)(要)(的)(目)(标)(,减)(持)(了)(流)(动)(性)(较)(差)(的)(中)(小)(板)(和)(创)(业)(板)(股)(票)(,降)(低)(了)(组)(合)(的)(仓)(位)(。随)(后)(在)(7月)(中)(旬)(到)(8月)(上)(旬)(,基)(金)(的)(策)(略)(依)(然)(较)(为)(谨)(慎)(。到)(9月)(中)(旬)(市)(场)(大)(幅)(度)(的)(下)(跌)(后)(,基)(金)(的)(操)(作)(策)(略)(逐)(渐)(转)(为)(中)(性)(。”  这)(个)(操)(作)(过)(程)(,也)(大)(致)(可)(以)(视)(为)(同)(类)(基)(金)(操)(作)(的)(共)(性)(选)(择)(。  对)(于)(未)(来)(,一)(些)(基)(金)(经)(理)(提)(出)(的)(看)(法)(是)(,市)(场)(有)(望)(结)(束)(大)(幅)(度)(下)(跌)(的)(格)(局)(。但)(经)(济)(下)(滑)(的)(趋)(势)(并)(没)(有)(扭)(转)(,所)(以)(市)(场)(的)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(很)(难)(在)(短)(期)(内)(明)(显)(提)(升)(。显)(然)(这)(是)(个)(模)(棱)(两)(可)(的)(判)(断)(,其)(本)(质)(无)(异)(于)(“上)(有)(压)(力)(、下)(有)(支)(撑)(”的)(骑)(墙)(式)(措)(辞)(。  “虽)(然)(不)(排)(除)(市)(场)(可)(能)(因)(为)(前)(期)(下)(跌)(太)(多)(后)(出)(现)(反)(弹)(,但)(中)(期)(趋)(势)(依)(然)(不)(明)(朗)(。但)(市)(场)(经)(历)(了)(两)(轮)(大)(幅)(度)(的)(调)(整)(后)(,市)(场)(的)(风)(险)(已)(经)(得)(到)(较)(大)(的)(释)(放)(,部)(分)(股)(票)(已)(经)(出)(现)(了)(一)(定)(的)(投)(资)(价)(值)(。基)(于)(此)(,本)(基)(金)(投)(资)(计)(划)(以)(长)(线)(的)(投)(资)(眼)(光)(和)(长)(期)(持)(有)(的)(操)(作)(来)(审)(视)(市)(场)(的)(机)(会)(。”  投)(资)(方)(向)(:依)(然)(两)(极)(分)(化)(  鉴)(于)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(在)(选)(时)(方)(面)(的)(困)(难)(,基)(金)(季)(报)(的)(个)(股)(配)(置)(和)(行)(业)(投)(资)(方)(向)(的)(选)(择)(通)(常)(是)(真)(金)(白)(银)(的)(“干)(货)(”所)(在)(。  根)(据)(天)(相)(提)(供)(的)(相)(关)(统)(计)(数)(据)(,我)(们)(总)(结)(了)(本)(季)(度)(末)(基)(金)(对)(于)(行)(业)(的)(观)(点)(。  总)(体)(来)(说)(,是)(三)(类)(观)(点)(。  第)(一)(类)(观)(点)(是)(对)(新)(兴)(产)(业)(的)(看)(法)(。总)(体)(上)(,诸)(如)(医)(药)(、新)(能)(源)(汽)(车)(、军)(工)(、农)(业)(和)(数)(字)(营)(销)(、互)(联)(网)(、TMT类)(投)(资)(的)(看)(好)(。  比)(如)(中)(邮)(基)(金)(提)(出)(的)(,“短)(期)(来)(看)(,我)(们)(判)(断)(市)(场)(依)(然)(会)(在)(底)(部)(箱)(体)(运)(行)(。经)(济)(降)(速)(,利)(率)(长)(周)(期)(下)(行)(,增)(量)(资)(金)(持)(续)(流)(入)(二)(级)(市)(场)(。改)(革)(和)(经)(济)(转)(型)(已)(经)(开)(始)(支)(持)(新)(经)(济)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,新)(经)(济)(依)(然)(是)(未)(来)(的)(主)(角)(。基)(于)(以)(上)(判)(断)(,我)(们)(将)(采)(取)(灵)(活)(的)(仓)(位)(控)(制)(策)(略)(,精)(选)(优)(质)(成)(长)(股)(、文)(化)(体)(育)(、军)(工)(、互)(联)(网)(和)(医)(药)(等)(新)(兴)(行)(业)(的)(成)(长)(性)(标)(的)(。”  相)(对)(应)(而)(言)(,中)(邮)(基)(金)(的)(基)(金)(们)(,在)(本)(季)(度)(重)(点)(增)(持)(了)(乐)(视)(网)(、天)(壕)(环)(境)(、创)(业)(软)(件)(、飞)(立)(信)(、开)(山)(股)(份)(、耐)(威)(科)(技)(等)(个)(股)(。另)(外)(,东)(方)(网)(力)(、尔)(康)(制)(药)(、旋)(极)(信)(息)(、华)(宇)(软)(件)(、腾)(信)(股)(份)(等)(也)(在)(他)(们)(的)(重)(仓)(持)(股)(之)(列)(。  第)(二)(类)(观)(点)(是)(,看)(好)(政)(策)(出)(台)(后)(有)(望)(激)(发)(的)(市)(场)(主)(题)(。其)(中)(尤)(以)(国)(企)(改)(革)(叠)(加)(资)(产)(注)(入)(等)(预)(期)(的)(公)(司)(为)(主)(。  以)(广)(发)(基)(金)(为)(例)(,该)(基)(金)(认)(为)(,“目)(前)(国)(内)(宏)(观)(政)(策)(为)(稳)(增)(长)(、调)(结)(构)(、促)(改)(革)(,新)(的)(环)(境)(变)(化)(是)(改)(革)(趋)(势)(比)(以)(前)(更)(确)(定)(、力)(度)(比)(以)(前)(更)(大)(。通)(胀)(目)(前)(没)(有)(压)(力)(,流)(动)(性)(相)(对)(充)(裕)(,而)(且)(存)(在)(进)(一)(步)(宽)(松)(的)(空)(间)(,所)(以)(从)(中)(长)(期)(来)(看)(,改)(革)(、转)(型)(是)(未)(来)(10年)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(关)(键)(词)(,符)(合)(社)(会)(、经)(济)(发)(展)(方)(向)(的)(行)(业)(和)(公)(司)(是)(未)(来)(最)(大)(的)(投)(资)(机)(会)(,其)(中)(一)(方)(面)(是)(传)(统)(制)(度)(的)(改)(革)(,如)(军)(队)(改)(革)(、国)(企)(改)(革)(等)(……”  具)(体)(组)(合)(投)(资)(方)(面)(,广)(发)(基)(金)(似)(乎)(更)(愿)(意)(在)(新)(兴)(产)(业)(中)(寻)(找)(改)(革)(的)(投)(资)(机)(会)(。三)(季)(度)(中)(,广)(发)(基)(金)(重)(点)(投)(资)(了)(物)(流)(流)(域)(的)(怡)(亚)(通)(、春)(秋)(航)(空)(,带)(有)(多)(重)(事)(件)(属)(性)(的)(欣)(旺)(达)(、重)(拾)(了)(互)(联)(网)(金)(融)(的)(金)(证)(股)(份)(,还)(继)(续)(保)(持)(了)(对)(于)(冠)(号)(上)(午)(、海)(澜)(之)(家)(等)(公)(司)(厚)(爱)(。  第)(三)(类)(投)(资)(,则)(是)(以)(传)(统)(的)(金)(融)(服)(务)(类)(和)(业)(绩)(为)(导)(向)(的)(投)(资)(——即)(所)(谓)(的)(价)(值)(投)(资)(思)(路)(。当)(然)(,这)(样)(的)(思)(维)(在)(过)(去)(三)(个)(季)(度)(中)(受)(到)(了)(明)(显)(的)(挤)(压)(,秉)(承)(这)(种)(思)(维)(的)(基)(金)(经)(理)(逐)(步)(转)(向)(只)(做)(不)(少)(。  安)(信)(基)(金)(在)(三)(季)(报)(提)(到)(:“经)(历)(了)(前)(期)(的)(下)(跌)(,不)(仅)(市)(场)(估)(值)(泡)(沫)(大)(幅)(消)(化)(,对)(经)(济)(基)(本)(面)(的)(悲)(观)(预)(期)(也)(反)(映)(较)(为)(充)(分)(,四)(季)(度)(的)(经)(济)(表)(现)(很)(难)(再)(弱)(于)(预)(期)(,甚)(至)(有)(可)(能)(有)(超)(预)(期)(表)(现)(。尽)(管)(部)(分)(概)(念)(股)(和)(伪)(成)(长)(股)(估)(值)(仍)(然)(高)(企)(,但)(以)(相)(当)(一)(部)(分)(绩)(优)(蓝)(筹)(股)(为)(代)(表)(的)(品)(种)(投)(资)(价)(值)(已)(经)(比)(较)(明)(确)(,”  “如)(果)(说)(4000点)(以)(上)(的)(市)(场)(是)(风)(险)(大)(于)(机)(遇)(的)(话)(,则)(当)(前)(股)(价)(下)(,从)(长)(期)(视)(角)(来)(看)(机)(遇)(大)(于)(风)(险)(。本)(基)(金)(聚)(焦)(于)(消)(费)(医)(药)(领)(域)(的)(优)(质)(公)(司)(,并)(且)(根)(据)(股)(价)(的)(高)(低)(对)(投)(资)(标)(的)(的)(持)(仓)(比)(例)(进)(行)(反)(向)(操)(作)(。”  从)(具)(体)(投)(资)(看)(,目)(前)(,基)(金)(业)(的)(重)(仓)(股)(行)(列)(中)(,仍)(然)(保)(留)(有)(类)(似)(思)(维)(的)(操)(作)(痕)(迹)(。在)(前)(二)(十)(大)(重)(仓)(个)(股)(中)(,中)(国)(太)(保)(、中)(国)(人)(寿)(、招)(商)(地)(产)(、北)(京)(银)(行)(等)(依)(然)(作)(为)(此)(类)(投)(资)(的)(思)(维)(体)(现)(。  当)(然)(,这)(批)(资)(金)(的)(投)(资)(思)(路)(也)(在)(悄)(然)(转)(移)(。首)(先)(是)(,传)(统)(的)(消)(费)(类)(个)(股)(已)(经)(逐)(步)(剔)(除)(出)(重)(仓)(股)(序)(列)(;其)(二)(是)(,金)(融)(中)(最)(具)(成)(长)(性)(和)(弹)(性)(的)(保)(险)(和)(中)(小)(银)(行)(得)(以)(最)(终)(保)(留)(。当)(然)(,这)(种)(策)(略)(在)(未)(来)(的)(投)(资)(表)(现)(仍)(然)(需)(要)(时)(间)(给)(出)(答)(案)(。
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