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50年回报一万倍的“股王”

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月24日 02:24:51
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(  上)(星)(期)(,佛)(罗)(里)(达)(州)(联)(邦)(法)(院)(判)(处)(美)(国)(第)(二)(大)(烟)(草)(商)(雷)(诺)((R.J.Reynolds)须)(向)(一)(名)(肺)(癌)(死)(者)(遗)(孀)(赔)(偿)(236亿)(美)(元)(。赔)(款)(金)(额)(折)(合)(港)(币)(接)(近)(2000亿)(,且)(针)(对)(第)(一)(原)(告)(人)(而)(非)(集)(体)(索)(偿)(而)(判)(。裁)(决)(一)(出)(,举)(世)(哗)(然)(。  吸)(烟)(危)(害)(健)(康)(,烟)(草)(商)(时)(刻)(面)(对)(天)(文)(数)(字)(的)(诉)(讼)(,直)(觉)(也)(许)(告)(诉)(大)(家)(,烟)(草)(股)(碰)(不)(得)(。然)(而)(,假)(如)(阁)(下)(真)(的)(这)(么)(想)(,那)(便)(肯)(定)(跟)(“股)(王)(”无)(缘)(。此)(股)(并)(非)(改)(变)(世)(界)(造)(福)(人)(类)(的)(科)(技)(神)(话)(,恰)(恰)(相)(反)(,这)(只)(为)(投)(资)(者)(带)(来)(惊)(人)(回)(报)(的)(股)(海)(奇)(葩)(,正)(正)(就)(是)(烟)(草)(业)(一)(哥)(Altria(前)(称)(PhilipMorris)。  貌)(不)(惊)(人)(回)(报)(优)(异)(  Altria有)(多)(厉)(害)(?基)(金)(经)(理)(PatrickO"Shaughnessy检)(视)(过)(去)(五)(十)(年)(美)(股)(投)(资)(回)(报)(,发)(现)(1963年)(至)(今)(表)(现)(最)(出)(色)(的)(股)(票)(,既)(非)(科)(技)(霸)(主)(更)(非)(石)(油)(巨)(企)(,而)(是)(年)(均)(升)(幅)(20.23%、半)(世)(纪)(累)(计)(回)(报)(高)(达)(1,000,000%(1万)(倍)()的)(Altria!数)(字)(虽)(未)(经)(通)(胀)(调)(整)(,但)(放)(眼)(股)(海)(,名)(义)(回)(报)(能)(胜)(Altria者)(,恐)(怕)(少)(之)(又)(少)(。  烟)(草)(乃)(害)(人)(之)(物)(,许)(多)(人)(基)(于)(良)(心)(和)(原)(则)(,对)(回)(报)(不)(闻)(不)(问)(,但)(凡)(烟)(酒)(军)(火)(,概)(不)(沾)(手)(。然)(而)(,老)(毕)(感)(兴)(趣)(的)(并)(非)(Altria或)(跟)(它)(一)(样)(“罪)(孽)(深)(重)(”的)(对)(手)(,而)(是)(烟)(草)(股)(处)(身)(的)(板)(块)(—必)(需)(消)(费)(品)((consumerstaples)。  香)(烟)(是)(否)(“必)(需)(品)(”,视)(乎)(阁)(下)(是)(否)(烟)(民)(。可)(是)(,股)(指)(设)(计)(者)(大)(都)(把)(烟)(草)(股)(归)(入)(此)(一)(板)(块)(。精)(准)(点)(说)(,烟)(草)(商)(在)(必)(需)(消)(费)(品)(领)(域)(的)(定)(位)(为)(“食)(品)(、饮)(料)(及)(烟)(草)(类)(”(food,beverage&tobacco)。  两)(件)(事)(要)(注)(意)(:一)(、标)(普)(500指)(数)(于)(1957年)(面)(世)(,在)(迄)(今)(仍)(是)(成)(分)(股)(的)(企)(业)(中)(,Altria股)(价)(表)(现)(固)(然)(首)(屈)(一)(指)(,但)(更)(值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,当)(中)(回)(报)(最)(高)(的)(20只)(股)(票)(,多)(达)(11只)(即)(逾)(半)(来)(自)(必)(需)(消)(费)(板)(块)(。由)(此)(可)(见)(,在)(变)(幻)(莫)(测)(的)(股)(海)(,越)(是)(“貌)(不)(惊)(人)(”,越)(经)(得)(起)(时)(间)(考)(验)(。  二)(、把)(投)(资)(比)(作)(选)(择)(情)(人)(,阁)(下)(会)(选)(十)(年)(如)(一)(日)(闷)(到)(发)(慌)(的)(必)(需)(消)(费)(品)(,还)(是)(惊)(喜)(无)(限)(出)(人)(意)(料)(的)(科)(技)(股)(?爱)(刺)(激)(乃)(人)(类)(天)(性)(,选)(情)(人)(如)(此)(,选)(股)(也)(没)(什)(么)(两)(样)(,否)(则)(何)(以)(科)(技)(业)(竞)(争)(激)(烈)(难)(以)(预)(测)(,投)(资)(者)(却)(心)(甘)(情)(愿)(为)(那)(不)(可)(知)(的)(未)(来)(付)(出)(高)(昂)(溢)(价)(?  高)(回)(报)(一)(定)(高)(风)(险)(?  在)(“沉)(闷)(”与)(“刺)(激)(”两)(个)(极)(端)(,代)(表)(前)(者)(的)(食)(品)(、饮)(料)(及)(烟)(草)(股)(,以)(及)(代)(表)(后)(者)(的)(科)(技)(硬)(件)(股)((technologyhardware),过)(去)(半)(世)(纪)(年)(均)(回)(报)(分)(别)(为)(13.6%和)(9.2%。换)(句)(话)(说)(,1963年)(在)(食)(品)(、饮)(料)(及)(烟)(草)(股)(身)(上)(投)(资)(1元)(,今)(天)(变)(成)(694.02元)(;投)(放)(于)(科)(技)(硬)(件)(股)(身)(上)(的)(1元)(,半)(世)(纪)(后)(变)(成)(84.64元)((数)(字)(经)(通)(胀)(调)(整)(;等)(额)(投)(资)(于)(美)(国)(相)(关)(板)(块)(所)(有)(市)(值)(2亿)(美)(元)(以)(上)(股)(份)(;每)(年)(12月)(为)(权)(重)(、组)(合)(进)(行)(调)(整)(和)(再)(平)(衡)()。  除)(了)(回)(报)(上)(的)(差)(异)(外)(,食)(品)(、饮)(料)(及)(烟)(草)(股)(的)(波)(动)(率)(每)(年)(平)(均)(14.2%,科)(技)(硬)(件)(股)(波)(动)(率)(双)(倍)(于)(此)(,达)(29.5%。那)(等)(于)(说)(,“闷)(股)(”的)(优)(异)(表)(现)(是)(在)(波)(动)(率)(仅)(及)(“刺)(激)(股)(”一)(半)(的)(前)(提)(下)(取)(得)(。谁)(说)(高)(回)(报)(一)(定)(高)(风)(险)(?  PatrickO"Shaughnessy的)(研)(究)(发)(现)(,过)(去)(五)(十)(年)(,必)(需)(消)(费)(品)(板)(块)(的)(股)(东)(资)(本)(回)(报)((ROE)非)(但)(高)(于)(市)(场)(平)(均)(水)(平)(,且)(不)(像)(其)(他)(板)(块)(那)(样)(,有)(“中)(值)(回)(归)(”(meanreversion)的)(倾)(向)(。这)(个)(现)(象)(,跟)(高)(利)(润)(高)(回)(报)(行)(业)(惹)(人)(垂)(涎)(、加)(入)(竞)(争)(以)(求)(分)(一)(杯)(羹)(者)(多)(不)(胜)(数)(的)(市)(场)(规)(律)(背)(道)(而)(驰)(。  数)(十)(年)(来)(,必)(需)(消)(费)(品)(板)(块)(的)(主)(要)(类)(别)(皆)(由)(少)(数)(巨)(企)(主)(宰)(,二)(至)(四)(家)(公)(司)(合)(计)(,市)(占)(率)(动)(辄)(高)(达)(七)(成)(以)(上)(,品)(牌)(效)(应)(加)(上)(经)(济)(规)(模)(,为)(它)(们)(筑)(起)(新)(来)(者)(难)(以)(入)(侵)(的)(“护)(城)(河)(”。难)(怪)(此)(等)(企)(业)(生)(意)(模)(式)(产)(品)(类)(型)(十)(年)(如)(一)(日)(,烟)(是)(一)(样)(的)(烟)(,汽)(水)(大)(不)(了)(有)(卡)(路)(里)(高)(低)(之)(分)(,与)(“革)(命)(性)(”沾)(不)(上)(边)(,却)(深)(受)(股)(神)(巴)(菲)(特)(一)(类)(长)(线)(投)(资)(者)(垂)(青)(,愿)(意)(爱)(足)(一)(世)(。  投)(资)(者)(能)(否)(找)(到)(下)(一)(只)(Altria,总)(要)(讲)(一)(点)(天)(时)(地)(利)(。然)(而)(,“闷)(股)(”与)(“刺)(激)(股)(”的)(最)(大)(分)(别)(,往)(往)(不)(在)(盈)(利)(实)(际)(增)(长)(多)(少)(,而)(在)(赚)(钱)(能)(力)(跟)(投)(资)(者)(预)(期)(落)(差)(多)(大)(。希)(望)(越)(大)(失)(望)(越)(大)(,闷)(声)(发)(大)(财)(,看)(来)(就)(是)(这)(个)(意)(思)(。  本)(文)(版)(权)(所)(有)(:香)(港)(信)(报)(财)(经)(新)(闻)(
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