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高毅资产邓晓峰:如何获取超额收益?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月24日 02:36:53
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(我)(们)(回)(过)(头)(来)(看)(,一)(些)(恍)(如)(隔)(世)(的)(情)(况)(会)(阶)(段)(性)(地)(经)(常)(出)(现)(,就)(人)(类)(本)(身)(来)(说)(,我)(们)(都)(有)(这)(些)(天)(然)(的)(弱)(点)(,知)(识)(可)(以)(积)(累)(,但)(是)(智)(慧)(还)(是)(很)(难)(去)(同)(步)(达)(到)(。
因)(为)(这)(些)(原)(因)(,所)(以)(我)(们)(会)(看)(到)(,资)(本)(市)(场)(还)(会)(有)(阶)(段)(性)(、间)(歇)(性)(、甚)(至)(是)(很)(长)(一)(段)(时)(间)(非)(常)(多)(的)(无)(效)(率)(的)(情)(况)(出)(现)(。我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,中)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(就)(是)(一)(个)(明)(显)(的)(例)(子)(。
2013-2015年)(的)(时)(候)(,整)(个)(社)(会)(有)(一)(个)(巨)(大)(转)(型)(的)(压)(力)(,大)(家)(特)(别)(喜)(欢)(向)(互)(联)(网)(去)(转)(型)(。所)(有)(的)(传)(统)(行)(业)(和)(公)(司)(非)(常)(恐)(慌)(,这)(个)(时)(候)(发)(现)(市)(场)(有)(很)(大)(的)(扭)(曲)(。
大)(家)(认)(为)(应)(该)(转)(型)(的)(方)(向)(有)(过)(高)(的)(预)(期)(,而)(真)(正)(来)(说)(本)(身)(竞)(争)(结)(构)(比)(较)(稳)(定)(的)(行)(业)(的)(公)(司)(,容)(易)(被)(市)(场)(所)(忽)(视)(,这)(个)(是)(在)(2013-2015年)(,中)(国)(市)(场)(最)(扭)(曲)(的)(一)(部)(分)(。
同)(时)(我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,当)(我)(们)(看)(到)(互)(联)(网)(行)(业)(对)(各)(个)(行)(业)(的)(影)(响)(已)(经)(高)(度)(明)(确)(化)(,市)(场)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(下)(降)(了)(之)(后)(,过)(去)(这)(些)(正)(常)(行)(业)(的)(低)(估)(的)(部)(分)(,又)(在)(2016、2017年)(得)(到)(了)(资)(本)(市)(场)(比)(较)(大)(的)(修)(正)(。这)(本)(身)(是)(一)(个)(市)(场)(阶)(段)(性)(没)(有)(效)(率)(、也)(会)(阶)(段)(性)(有)(效)(率)(的)(运)(作)(过)(程)(。
对)(于)(做)(研)(究)(或)(者)(做)(投)(资)(来)(说)(,我)(们)(总)(是)(希)(望)(自)(己)(能)(够)(发)(现)(这)(个)(市)(场)(无)(效)(率)(的)(部)(分)(,怎)(么)(做)(?从)(自)(身)(体)(会)(来)(说)(,我)(希)(望)(建)(立)(一)(个)(参)(照)(系)(,建)(立)(一)(个)(坐)(标)(系)(,我)(们)(通)(过)(研)(究)(,能)(够)(对)(未)(来)(有)(所)(判)(断)(或)(者)(是)(预)(测)(。
我)(自)(己)(是)(在)(1996年)(本)(科)(毕)(业)(以)(后)(到)(深)(圳)(开)(始)(接)(触)(资)(本)(市)(场)(,当)(时)(市)(场)(是)(一)(个)(庄)(股)(横)(行)(的)(年)(代)(。我)(研)(究)(生)(毕)(业)(,2001年)(到)(上)(海)(国)(泰)(君)(安)(证)(券)(的)(时)(候)(,正)(好)(又)(看)(到)(整)(个)(国)(家)(的)(股)(票)(市)(场)(从)(一)(个)(庄)(股)(横)(行)(到)(做)(庄)(模)(式)(后)(面)(的)(阶)(段)(。
从)(2003年)(开)(始)(,整)(个)(行)(业)(寻)(找)(一)(个)(可)(持)(续)(的)(方)(向)(,开)(始)(去)(关)(注)(企)(业)(的)(竞)(争)(力)(、公)(司)(的)(基)(本)(面)(,投)(资)(逐)(渐)(向)(国)(际)(规)(范)(去)(靠)(拢)(,我)(觉)(得)(那)(是)(一)(个)(国)(内)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(学)(习)(的)(过)(程)(。但)(是)(在)(2007年)(之)(后)(,随)(着)(股)(权)(分)(置)(改)(革)(完)(成)(,大)(股)(东)(成)(为)(上)(市)(公)(司)(股)(价)(影)(响)(最)(大)(一)(股)(力)(量)(。
我)(们)(看)(到)(,2009年)(以)(后)(大)(股)(东)(对)(于)(资)(本)(市)(场)(影)(响)(也)(好)(,干)(预)(也)(好)(,甚)(至)(操)(纵)(也)(好)(,到)(了)(一)(个)(史)(无)(前)(例)(最)(高)(的)(层)(面)(,他)(们)(是)(影)(响)(资)(本)(市)(场)(非)(常)(大)(的)(一)(个)(方)(面)(,甚)(至)(在)(短)(期)(之)(内)(产)(生)(很)(大)(的)(扭)(曲)(。
不)(同)(的)(阶)(段)(都)(有)(不)(同)(的)(事)(情)(发)(生)(,但)(我)(自)(己)(的)(体)(会)(是)(,我)(们)(在)(这)(个)(市)(场)(上)(面)(,还)(是)(可)(以)(很)(好)(的)(通)(过)(做)(基)(础)(的)(研)(究)(,发)(现)(公)(司)(的)(未)(来)(价)(值)(创)(造)(,可)(以)(得)(到)(持)(续)(稳)(定)(的)(回)(报)(,可)(以)(获)(得)(一)(个)(长)(期)(的)(超)(额)(收)(益)(。
简)(单)(的)(说)(,选)(到)(好)(的)(行)(业)(,回)(报)(率)(高)(的)(行)(业)(,找)(到)(最)(优)(秀)(的)(公)(司)(,在)(合)(适)(的)(价)(格)(做)(投)(资)(。所)(有)(的)(投)(资)(,估)(值)(水)(平)(,也)(就)(是)(价)(格)(,一)(定)(是)(最)(重)(要)(的)(,因)(为)(价)(格)(决)(定)(了)(你)(的)(回)(报)(率)(。再)(好)(的)(公)(司)(,过)(高)(的)(价)(格)(可)(能)(给)(你)(比)(较)(低)(的)(回)(报)(率)(,甚)(至)(负)(的)(回)(报)(率)(,这)(是)(无)(法)(避)(免)(的)(。
我)(们)(的)(投)(资)(,基)(本)(是)(希)(望)(面)(向)(未)(来)(,通)(过)(分)(享)(企)(业)(的)(价)(值)(创)(造)(,来)(实)(现)(我)(们)(自)(己)(的)(投)(资)(回)(报)(,这)(个)(过)(程)(其)(实)(需)(要)(我)(们)(去)(更)(多)(的)(判)(断)(企)(业)(的)(未)(来)(,这)(是)(我)(们)(所)(有)(做)(研)(究)(的)(根)(本)(的)(目)(的)(。
我)(们)(研)(究)(过)(去)(,研)(究)(历)(史)(,是)(为)(了)(我)(们)(能)(够)(更)(好)(的)(,更)(大)(概)(率)(的)(去)(分)(析)(和)(判)(断)(企)(业)(、行)(业)(的)(未)(来)(发)(展)(。
在)(这)(之)(前)(,我)(们)(在)(行)(业)(研)(究)(和)(积)(累)(的)(时)(候)(怎)(么)(找)(框)(架)(?我)(自)(己)(在)(一)(段)(时)(间)(之)(后)(,发)(现)(有)(一)(个)(比)(较)(好)(的)(类)(比)(的)(参)(照)(性)(,我)(们)(研)(究)(了)(当)(时)(美)(国)(标)(普)(500的)(行)(业)(结)(构)(分)(布)(和)(利)(润)(分)(布)(。
因)(为)(美)(国)(是)(一)(个)(大)(国)(,中)(国)(也)(是)(一)(个)(大)(国)(,美)(国)(的)(产)(业)(非)(常)(全)(,中)(国)(的)(产)(业)(也)(很)(全)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(非)(常)(好)(的)(参)(照)(系)(和)(指)(标)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(观)(察)(过)(去)(40年)(。
当)(然)(这)(个)(图)(只)(是)(到)(2012年)(,之)(后)(我)(也)(就)(没)(更)(新)(了)(,因)(为)(当)(时)(我)(们)(研)(究)(过)(了)(这)(个)(图)(,或)(者)(我)(们)(后)(来)(把)(标)(普)(500的)(数)(据)(看)(过)(之)(后)(,自)(己)(有)(了)(一)(个)(框)(架)(。
我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,在)(一)(个)(大)(国)(里)(面)(,随)(着)(经)(济)(发)(展)(、产)(业)(成)(熟)(,不)(同)(的)(行)(业)(在)(不)(同)(的)(阶)(段)(有)(不)(同)(的)(分)(布)(。金)(融)(行)(业)(永)(远)(是)(一)(个)(大)(行)(业)(,它)(关)(系)(到)(所)(有)(的)(人)(,也)(关)(系)(到)(整)(个)(经)(济)(活)(动)(的)(运)(行)(。
在)(格)(林)(斯)(潘)(几)(次)(降)(息)(以)(后)(,美)(国)(金)(融)(泡)(沫)(的)(时)(期)(,这)(个)(行)(业)(最)(高)(占)(到)(标)(普)(500市)(值)(的)(22%,2012年)(大)(概)(是)(16%。我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,医)(疗)(行)(业)(一)(直)(是)(一)(个)(非)(常)(重)(要)(的)(行)(业)(,美)(国)(GDP(国)(内)(生)(产)(总)(值)()大)(概)(15个)(点)(以)(上)(,是)(医)(疗)(行)(业)(。标)(普)(500的)(市)(值)(结)(构)(里)(面)(,它)(也)(一)(直)(是)(一)(个)(排)(名)(前)(三)(位)(的)(重)(要)(的)(行)(业)(。
高)(科)(技)(行)(业)(是)(美)(国)(最)(大)(的)(一)(个)(行)(业)(,在)(2012年)(的)(时)(候)(,这)(个)(行)(业)(占)(标)(普)(500的)(市)(值)(是)(18个)(点)(,目)(前)(肯)(定)(更)(高)(,我)(估)(计)(大)(概)(是)(24-25个)(点)(左)(右)(,现)(在)(没)(有)(仔)(细)(去)(看)(。但)(是)(还)(没)(有)(到)(2000年)(,Intel泡)(沫)(的)(时)(候)(,当)(时)(占)(整)(个)(市)(场)(市)(值)(接)(近)(三)(分)(之)(一)(。
我)(们)(还)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,可)(选)(消)(费)(也)(就)(是)(耐)(用)(消)(费)(品)(和)(日)(常)(消)(费)(一)(定)(是)(一)(个)(比)(较)(稳)(定)(的)(行)(业)(,它)(的)(长)(期)(比)(例)(都)(是)(在)(11个)(点)(左)(右)(。
我)(们)(也)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,美)(国)(确)(实)(是)(一)(个)(非)(常)(稳)(健)(的)(经)(济)(体)(,他)(的)(工)(业)(行)(业)(一)(直)(都)(是)(在)(10个)(点)(左)(右)(的)(比)(例)(。
虽)(然)(他)(的)(就)(业)(比)(例)(在)(下)(降)(,但)(是)(,我)(们)(看)(到)(过)(去)(40年)(来)(总)(体)(上)(维)(持)(比)(较)(高)(的)(比)(例)(,美)(国)(的)(制)(造)(业)(还)(是)(很)(有)(生)(命)(力)(和)(竞)(争)(力)(的)(。像)(电)(信)(服)(务)(,像)(公)(用)(事)(业)(和)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(,原)(材)(料)(这)(些)(行)(业)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(随)(着)(国)(家)(发)(展)(的)(成)(熟)(,这)(些)(行)(业)(在)(经)(济)(结)(构)(里)(面)(所)(占)(的)(比)(例)(是)(下)(降)(的)(。
能)(源)(行)(业)(是)(一)(个)(很)(大)(的)(行)(业)(,这)(主)(要)(以)(石)(油)(和)(天)(然)(气)(为)(代)(表)(。但)(未)(来)(这)(个)(行)(业)(会)(不)(会)(发)(生)(大)(的)(变)(化)(,比)(如)(当)(我)(们)(电)(动)(化)(以)(后)(,汽)(油)(不)(再)(是)(重)(要)(的)(燃)(料)(,也)(许)(这)(个)(行)(业)(会)(发)(生)(重)(大)(的)(变)(化)(。
我)(们)(再)(看)(一)(下)(,这)(些)(行)(业)(的)(利)(润)(占)(标)(普)(500的)(比)(例)(,这)(个)(相)(当)(于)(做)(了)(一)(个)(市)(值)(加)(权)(。
我)(们)(的)(红)(色)(线)(是)(指)(这)(些)(行)(业)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(,理)(论)(上)(是)(高)(于)(整)(个)(标)(普)(五)(百)(的)(,这)(主)(要)(是)(在)(一)(些)(,比)(如)(医)(疗)(行)(业)(长)(期)(来)(说)(很)(容)(易)(高)(的)(。电)(信)(或)(者)(公)(用)(事)(业)(为)(什)(么)(会)(高)(,我)(觉)(得)(是)(因)(为)(这)(个)(行)(业)(在)(美)(国)(是)(一)(个)(稳)(定)(的)(行)(业)(,他)(的)(风)(险)(贴)(现)(比)(较)(低)(。
而)(2009年)(之)(后)(,整)(个)(美)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(是)(一)(个)(长)(期)(利)(率)(下)(行)(,甚)(至)(走)(向)(一)(个)(低)(利)(率)(的)(阶)(段)(,这)(个)(时)(候)(稳)(定)(的)(行)(业)(,他)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(容)(易)(显)(得)(高)(。
金)(融)(行)(业)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(,一)(般)(是)(低)(于)(平)(均)(水)(平)(的)(,主)(要)(原)(因)(是)(因)(为)(这)(个)(行)(业)(本)(质)(是)(一)(个)(高)(杠)(杆)(,同)(时)(他)(有)(委)(托)(代)(理)(机)(制)(的)(原)(因)(,下)(面)(的)(人)(一)(定)(会)(去)(更)(多)(的)(冒)(险)(,本)(身)(这)(个)(行)(业)(的)(风)(险)(比)(较)(大)(,所)(以)(他)(必)(须)(有)(一)(个)(高)(的)(风)(险)(溢)(价)(。
我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(挺)(有)(意)(思)(的)(是)(,科)(技)(行)(业)(的)(利)(润)(比)(例)(是)(高)(于)(它)(的)(市)(值)(比)(例)(,我)(觉)(得)(这)(个)(背)(后)(的)(含)(义)(可)(能)(是)(说)(,科)(技)(行)(业)(作)(为)(一)(个)(整)(体)(来)(看)(,,确)(实)(有)(一)(个)(比)(较)(高)(的)(风)(险)(,估)(值)(水)(平)(并)(没)(有)(显)(示)(出)(来)(应)(该)(给)(它)(更)(高)(的)(估)(值)(,或)(者)(说)(当)(公)(司)(比)(较)(小)(的)(时)(候)(,有)(不)(确)(定)(的)(时)(候)(,会)(有)(比)(较)(高)(的)(估)(值)(,当)(公)(司)(非)(常)(大)(了)(之)(后)(,估)(值)(会)(下)(降)(。
当)(然)(我)(们)(看)(到)(,最)(近)(五)(年)(发)(生)(的)(变)(化)(,尤)(其)(是)(两)(三)(年)(,美)(国)(最)(大)(的)(一)(批)(互)(联)(网)(公)(司)(,他)(们)(在)(最)(大)(体)(量)(上)(面)(实)(现)(了)(高)(速)(增)(长)(,这)(个)(是)(一)(个)(前)(所)(未)(有)(的)(变)(化)(,因)(为)(互)(联)(网)(可)(以)(更)(广)(泛)(的)(接)(触)(到)(C端)(所)(有)(的)(人)(群)(。
消)(费)(品)(行)(业)(总)(体)(来)(看)(,是)(一)(个)(估)(值)(水)(平)(和)(整)(个)(系)(统)(市)(场)(接)(近)(的)(,或)(者)(说)(有)(一)(些)(时)(候)(略)(高)(的)(状)(态)(。
能)(源)(行)(业)(长)(期)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(是)(低)(于)(它)(的)(其)(他)(的)(行)(业)(对)(比)(,我)(觉)(得)(主)(要)(的)(原)(因)(是)(,本)(身)(大)(家)(对)(于)(这)(种)(情)(况)(的)(可)(持)(续)(性)(抱)(有)(一)(定)(的)(怀)(疑)(。
所)(以)(我)(们)(做)(研)(究)(的)(过)(程)(,本)(质)(是)(一)(个)(收)(集)(信)(息)(,收)(集)(数)(据)(,然)(后)(再)(分)(析)(处)(理)(这)(些)(数)(据)(,我)(们)(希)(望)(能)(够)(理)(解)(判)(断)(背)(后)(的)(商)(业)(逻)(辑)(,也)(希)(望)(自)(己)(能)(够)(有)(洞)(察)(力)(,能)(够)(预)(测)(未)(来)(,能)(够)(指)(导)(我)(们)(的)(投)(资)(,这)(个)(过)(程)(需)(要)(我)(们)(不)(断)(的)(用)(现)(实)(去)(检)(验)(,去)(修)(正)(。
案)(例)(一)(:华)(为)(、中)(兴)(在)(全)(球)(兴)(起)(的)(原)(因)(
我)(们)(下)(面)(探)(讨)(两)(个)(案)(例)(。
第)(一)(个)(案)(例)(,我)(们)(看)(一)(下)(通)(讯)(设)(备)(行)(业)(的)(变)(化)(。
从)(九)(十)(年)(代)(开)(始)(,中)(国)(通)(讯)(行)(业)(的)(公)(司)(发)(展)(到)(今)(天)(,逐)(渐)(改)(写)(了)(全)(球)(的)(产)(业)(格)(局)(,说)(实)(话)(,当)(时)(我)(能)(够)(从)(这)(个)(研)(究)(岗)(转)(到)(投)(资)(岗)(,是)(因)(为)(我)(当)(时)(做)(的)(通)(讯)(行)(业)(的)(研)(究)(,2003、2004年)(的)(时)(候)(。
回)(头)(看)(,当)(时)(做)(的)(研)(究)(有)(很)(多)(体)(会)(,当)(时)(通)(讯)(行)(业)(正)(在)(发)(生)(重)(大)(的)(变)(化)(,2003、2004年)(,华)(为)(、中)(兴)(为)(代)(表)(的)(公)(司)(正)(在)(崛)(起)(,他)(们)(首)(先)(依)(托)(了)(一)(个)(庞)(大)(的)(本)(土)(市)(场)(,中)(国)(市)(场)(是)(一)(个)(非)(常)(庞)(大)(的)(市)(场)(。
同)(时)(,我)(们)(看)(到)(,通)(讯)(行)(业)(是)(一)(个)(高)(度)(人)(力)(资)(本)(密)(集)(的)(行)(业)(,研)(发)(人)(员)(往)(往)(要)(占)(到)(公)(司)(的)(三)(分)(之)(一)(甚)(至)(更)(高)(,这)(个)(行)(业)(的)(一)(般)(的)(结)(构)(是)(毛)(利)(率)(在)(30%-50%之)(间)(,然)(后)(研)(发)(费)(用)(大)(概)(10多)(个)(点)(,主)(要)(是)(人)(力)(的)(成)(本)(,销)(售)(费)(用)(十)(多)(个)(点)(,主)(要)(是)(直)(销)(为)(代)(表)(的)(高)(销)(售)(费)(用)(的)(商)(业)(模)(式)(。
你)(会)(发)(现)(,中)(国)(公)(司)(在)(2000年)(左)(右)(成)(为)(结)(构)(性)(的)(优)(势)(公)(司)(,因)(为)(享)(受)(了)(劳)(动)(力)(成)(本)(的)(优)(势)(,中)(国)(的)(大)(学)(培)(养)(了)(非)(常)(优)(秀)(的)(大)(批)(量)(工)(程)(师)(,加)(入)(华)(为)(、中)(兴)(这)(样)(的)(体)(系)(,他)(们)(以)(中)(国)(的)(成)(本)(结)(构)(应)(对)(世)(界)(上)(最)(优)(秀)(的)(一)(批)(公)(司)(,包)(括)(有)(很)(多)(传)(奇)(的)(公)(司)(,比)(如)(说)(贝)(尔)(实)(验)(室)(、朗)(讯)(,被)(称)(为)(诺)(贝)(尔)(奖)(的)(摇)(篮)(,无)(数)(这)(样)(的)(公)(司)(。
但)(是)(因)(为)(这)(样)(一)(个)(结)(构)(性)(成)(本)(的)(劣)(势)(,他)(们)(在)(中)(国)(被)(打)(败)(,他)(们)(在)(全)(球)(也)(逐)(渐)(被)(中)(国)(公)(司)(打)(败)(。
他)(们)(失)(败)(的)(原)(因)(我)(们)(现)(在)(回)(过)(头)(来)(看)(,在)(当)(时)(已)(经)(可)(以)(清)(楚)(的)(判)(断)(出)(来)(。首)(先)(,是)(因)(为)(跨)(国)(公)(司)(的)(战)(略)(失)(误)(。之)(前)(通)(讯)(行)(业)(只)(有)(发)(达)(国)(家)(的)(少)(数)(的)(公)(司)(能)(够)(做)(出)(来)(这)(个)(产)(品)(,一)(直)(是)(一)(个)(高)(定)(价)(的)(贴)(值)(战)(略)(在)(中)(国)(。
这)(个)(高)(价)(格)(给)(了)(中)(国)(公)(司)(机)(会)(,我)(们)(知)(道)(早)(期)(不)(管)(是)(华)(为)(、中)(兴)(、大)(唐)(还)(有)(巨)(龙)(,产)(品)(性)(能)(都)(不)(差)(,但)(是)(海)(外)(供)(应)(商)(的)(价)(格)(太)(高)(了)(,他)(们)(给)(了)(国)(内)(的)(企)(业)(去)(研)(发)(,去)(改)(善)(产)(品)(的)(机)(会)(。
我)(记)(得)(在)(九)(十)(年)(代)(,1996、1997年)(的)(时)(候)(,交)(换)(机)(一)(线)(大)(概)(卖)(1500-2000块)(钱)(。因)(为)(这)(么)(高)(的)(价)(格)(,所)(以)(国)(内)(的)(公)(司)(能)(够)(有)(切)(入)(的)(机)(会)(,等)(到)(国)(内)(的)(公)(司)(逐)(渐)(成)(长)(起)(来)(之)(后)(,出)(现)(了)(新)(的)(情)(况)(。
我)(们)(这)(些)(公)(司)(一)(方)(面)(大)(力)(的)(招)(我)(们)(优)(秀)(的)(大)(学)(生)(去)(做)(市)(场)(,一)(方)(面)(做)(研)(发)(,两)(条)(腿)(都)(走)(路)(走)(的)(很)(好)(。他)(们)(在)(市)(场)(体)(系)(最)(紧)(密)(的)(贴)(近)(运)(营)(商)(的)(需)(求)(,传)(导)(到)(我)(们)(的)(研)(发)(体)(系)(,这)(样)(变)(成)(了)(不)(只)(是)(有)(一)(个)(成)(本)(优)(势)(的)(公)(司)(,他)(变)(成)(了)(一)(个)(更)(理)(解)(客)(户)(需)(求)(的)(公)(司)(。
而)(海)(外)(的)(这)(些)(跨)(国)(企)(业)(本)(质)(上)(,他)(中)(国)(的)(分)(部)(首)(先)(是)(一)(个)(职)(业)(经)(理)(人)(,他)(没)(有)(巨)(大)(的)(一)(些)(产)(品)(的)(研)(发)(权)(限)(,他)(们)(中)(国)(的)(研)(发)(只)(是)(一)(个)(很)(小)(的)(部)(分)(,发)(展)(到)(后)(面)(,1996、1997年)(的)(时)(候)(它)(是)(有)(巨)(大)(的)(产)(品)(优)(势)(,但)(是)(中)(国)(的)(公)(司)(只)(不)(过)(价)(格)(竞)(争)(。
但)(是)(2000年)(之)(后)(,你)(会)(发)(现)(中)(国)(公)(司)(的)(产)(品)(性)(能)(逐)(渐)(赶)(上)(来)(了)(,但)(是)(我)(们)(能)(够)(更)(理)(解)(客)(户)(的)(需)(求)(,通)(过)(这)(个)(途)(径)(继)(续)(把)(竞)(争)(对)(手)(赶)(出)(这)(个)(市)(场)(,我)(觉)(得)(归)(根)(到)(底)(这)(个)(是)(一)(个)(创)(业)(型)(的)(公)(司)(,和)(一)(个)(职)(业)(经)(理)(人)(应)(对)(不)(同)(的)(市)(场)(做)(出)(不)(同)(的)(选)(择)(,达)(成)(了)(这)(样)(一)(个)(竞)(争)(的)(结)(果)(。
下)(一)(步)(,像)(华)(为)(、中)(兴)(这)(样)(为)(代)(表)(的)(公)(司)(,他)(们)(也)(是)(非)(常)(有)(进)(取)(精)(神)(,扩)(展)(到)(全)(球)(市)(场)(,这)(个)(路)(非)(常)(漫)(长)(,但)(是)(他)(们)(一)(定)(能)(成)(,根)(本)(的)(原)(因)(是)(说)(之)(前)(所)(有)(的)(跨)(国)(企)(业)(,在)(其)(他)(国)(家)(的)(市)(场)(也)(是)(一)(个)(高)(定)(价)(的)(业)(务)(模)(式)(,当)(中)(国)(的)(公)(司)(出)(去)(了)(之)(后)(,他)(会)(成)(为)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(解)(决)(自)(己)(通)(讯)(问)(题)(的)(最)(好)(的)(合)(作)(伙)(伴)(,也)(存)(在)(巨)(大)(的)(价)(值)(。
在)(发)(达)(国)(家)(的)(市)(场)(,他)(们)(会)(成)(为)(运)(营)(商)(降)(低)(成)(本)(最)(主)(要)(的)(伙)(伴)(,华)(为)(首)(先)(在)(2001、2002年)(开)(始)(达)(到)(了)(这)(个)(效)(果)(,中)(兴)(通)(讯)(可)(能)(更)(晚)(才)(作)(为)(一)(个)(运)(营)(商)(约)(束)(华)(为)(的)(棋)(子)(,被)(引)(入)(了)(跨)(国)(运)(营)(商)(的)(供)(应)(链)(体)(系)(。
我)(们)(看)(到)(这)(个)(过)(程)(,可)(以)(从)(逻)(辑)(上)(面)(分)(析)(这)(个)(过)(程)(,2003年)(的)(时)(候)(,跨)(国)(的)(公)(司)(和)(中)(国)(的)(两)(个)(公)(司)(,他)(们)(的)(收)(入)(规)(模)(差)(别)(很)(大)(,但)(是)(从)(人)(的)(分)(布)(来)(看)(,研)(发)(人)(员)(基)(本)(上)(都)(在)(一)(万)(人)(左)(右)(的)(量)(级)(,这)(个)(时)(候)(已)(经)(没)(有)(差)(距)(了)(,虽)(然)(我)(们)(的)(研)(发)(费)(用)(只)(有)(他)(的)(十)(分)(之)(一)(,就)(是)(这)(些)(行)(业)(的)(公)(司)(,基)(本)(上)(都)(是)(把)(15%左)(右)(的)(收)(入)(拿)(出)(来)(做)(研)(发)(,但)(是)(因)(为)(当)(时)(中)(国)(的)(工)(程)(师)(价)(格)(低)(,基)(本)(上)(30万)(人)(民)(币)(,在)(国)(外)(要)(20多)(万)(美)(元)(,这)(就)(是)(一)(个)(结)(构)(性)(的)(竞)(争)(优)(势)(。
当)(然)(现)(在)(已)(经)(不)(存)(在)(了)(,现)(在)(腾)(讯)(阿)(里)(的)(工)(资)(也)(都)(是)(20多)(万)(人)(民)(币)(一)(年)(,但)(是)(当)(时)(确)(实)(是)(这)(样)(的)(情)(况)(。我)(们)(当)(时)(其)(实)(在)(15年)(前)(,虽)(然)(从)(销)(售)(收)(入)(的)(规)(模)(来)(看)(显)(得)(弱)(小)(,但)(是)(从)(一)(个)(体)(系)(来)(看)(,已)(经)(和)(他)(在)(同)(样)(一)(个)(量)(级)(了)(。
我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(2003年)(的)(时)(候)(曾)(经)(有)(这)(么)(多)(出)(名)(的)(公)(司)(存)(在)(,到)(目)(前)(来)(看)(,朗)(讯)(2006年)(被)(阿)(尔)(卡)(特)(花)(了)(134亿)(美)(元)(收)(购)(,朗)(讯)(的)(市)(值)(在)(2004年)(只)(有)(150亿)(美)(元)(,我)(记)(得)(很)(清)(楚)(,2000年)(的)(时)(候)(,朗)(讯)(为)(了)(收)(购)(三)(个)(公)(司)(花)(了)(大)(概)(260还)(是)(280亿)(美)(元)(,当)(然)(那)(个)(时)(候)(朗)(讯)(的)(市)(值)(是)(1千)(多)(亿)(美)(元)(,跌)(下)(来)(了)(。
然)(后)(阿)(尔)(卡)(特)(和)(朗)(讯)(在)(2015年)(又)(整)(体)(被)(诺)(基)(亚)(收)(购)(了)(,收)(购)(的)(价)(格)(166亿)(美)(元)(,可)(以)(看)(到)(,收)(购)(了)(之)(后)(诺)(基)(亚)(目)(前)(整)(体)(的)(市)(值)(也)(只)(有)(300多)(亿)(,收)(入)(只)(有)(两)(百)(多)(个)(亿)(,产)(业)(结)(构)(发)(生)(了)(巨)(大)(的)(变)(化)(,全)(球)(的)(价)(值)(链)(在)(发)(生)(巨)(大)(的)(转)(移)(,这)(个)(是)(过)(去)(15年)(通)(讯)(设)(备)(行)(业)(发)(生)(的)(事)(情)(,整)(个)(欧)(美)(通)(讯)(设)(备)(行)(业)(,除)(了)(思)(科)(因)(为)(是)(一)(个)(首)(先)(受)(益)(于)(美)(国)(封)(闭)(的)(市)(场)(不)(让)(我)(们)(进)(去)(。
第)(二)(,它)(的)(客)(户)(更)(分)(散)(,不)(只)(是)(运)(营)(商)(,很)(多)(的)(小)(客)(户)(,这)(个)(公)(司)(的)(业)(务)(特)(点)(保)(证)(了)(他)(一)(个)(比)(较)(好)(的)(基)(本)(盘)(,所)(有)(对)(运)(营)(商)(的)(市)(场)(,其)(实)(整)(个)(结)(构)(,中)(国)(的)(公)(司)(已)(经)(完)(全)(主)(导)(了)(这)(个)(市)(场)(。
现)(在)(全)(球)(的)(玩)(家)(只)(剩)(下)(爱)(立)(信)(、诺)(基)(亚)(、华)(为)(、中)(兴)(四)(家)(公)(司)(,所)(以)(有)(人)(说)(中)(国)(是)(发)(达)(国)(家)(的)(粉)(碎)(机)(,我)(们)(其)(实)(可)(以)(从)(这)(个)(行)(业)(看)(出)(来)(,这)(可)(是)(孕)(育)(了)(无)(数)(诺)(贝)(尔)(奖)(的)(行)(业)(,也)(曾)(经)(是)(高)(科)(技)(行)(业)(的)(代)(表)(,当)(然)(后)(面)(已)(经)(成)(熟)(了)(。
案)(例)(二)(:市)(场)(对)(中)(国)(银)(行)(业)(存)(在)(四)(大)(误)(解)(
我)(们)(再)(看)(传)(统)(的)(银)(行)(业)(,银)(行)(业)(本)(质)(上)(是)(一)(个)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(的)(生)(意)(、重)(资)(本)(行)(业)(,有)(资)(本)(金)(的)(需)(求)(,要)(放)(贷)(款)(必)(须)(有)(资)(本)(金)(,这)(个)(是)(一)(个)(杠)(杆)(率)(的)(约)(束)(,这)(个)(生)(意)(很)(古)(老)(。
中)(国)(银)(行)(业)(背)(负)(了)(特)(别)(多)(的)(负)(面)(看)(法)(,大)(家)(广)(为)(流)(传)(的)(是)(,第)(一)(,是)(说)(中)(国)(银)(行)(业)(暴)(利)(,这)(个)(行)(业)(的)(利)(润)(占)(比)(过)(高)(,整)(个)(上)(市)(公)(司)(利)(润)(的)(一)(半)(是)(银)(行)(,这)(是)(很)(多)(我)(们)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(人)(士)(,甚)(至)(有)(一)(些)(经)(济)(学)(家)(的)(确)(谈)(论)(的)(事)(情)(,我)(觉)(得)(这)(个)(是)(有)(一)(点)(遗)(憾)(的)(,我)(们)(后)(面)(再)(讨)(论)(。
第)(二)(个)(是)(中)(国)(银)(行)(业)(的)(高)(利)(润)(来)(自)(于)(政)(策)(保)(护)(,来)(自)(于)(竞)(争)(的)(不)(充)(分)(,都)(认)(为)(中)(国)(的)(银)(行)(业)(利)(差)(过)(大)(,在)(利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(之)(后)(,一)(定)(会)(有)(一)(个)(急)(剧)(下)(降)(,同)(时)(大)(家)(也)(都)(认)(为)(中)(国)(企)(业)(的)(坏)(帐)(很)(多)(,目)(前)(银)(行)(的)(坏)(帐)(没)(有)(反)(应)(,远)(远)(低)(于)(他)(实)(际)(的)(情)(况)(,这)(是)(市)(场)(方)(面)(的)(一)(些)(叫)(popular(流)(行)()的)(看)(法)(。
如)(果)(是)(做)(一)(个)(研)(究)(者)(,我)(们)(要)(客)(观)(地)(分)(析)(数)(据)(,寻)(找)(背)(后)(真)(正)(的)(答)(案)(。首)(先)(我)(们)(看)(银)(行)(业)(,甚)(至)(是)(金)(融)(业)(利)(润)(占)(比)(的)(问)(题)(。
第)(一)(句)(话)(,我)(觉)(得)(坐)(标)(系)(选)(错)(了)(,因)(为)(我)(们)(国)(家)(基)(本)(主)(要)(的)(银)(行)(都)(上)(市)(了)(,所)(以)(上)(市)(银)(行)(的)(利)(润)(基)(本)(等)(于)(行)(业)(的)(利)(润)(,而)(中)(国)(企)(业)(有)(很)(多)(公)(司)(在)(海)(外)(上)(市)(,在)(香)(港)(上)(市)(,同)(时)(,其)(他)(非)(上)(市)(企)(业)(的)(利)(润)(比)(例)(也)(挺)(高)(。
我)(们)(只)(是)(一)(个)(简)(单)(的)(数)(据)(来)(对)(比)(,整)(个)(银)(行)(业)(一)(年)(的)(利)(润)(大)(概)(一)(万)(多)(个)(亿)(,而)(我)(们)(光)(规)(模)(以)(上)(工)(业)(企)(业)(的)(利)(润)(,去)(年)(其)(实)(超)(过)(了)(6万)(亿)(,如)(果)(考)(虑)(房)(地)(产)(还)(有)(1万)(亿)(的)(利)(润)(,加)(上)(其)(他)(的)(,中)(国)(银)(行)(业)(的)(整)(体)(利)(润)(占)(中)(国)(企)(业)(利)(润)(的)(比)(率)(大)(概)(是)(在)(15%以)(下)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(合)(适)(的)(比)(例)(。
因)(为)(中)(国)(银)(行)(业)(的)(利)(润)(占)(整)(个)(金)(融)(业)(利)(润)(的)(比)(例)(非)(常)(高)(,这)(是)(我)(们)(国)(家)(的)(融)(资)(结)(构)(或)(者)(资)(产)(分)(布)(所)(决)(定)(的)(,如)(果)(你)(在)(一)(个)(更)(大)(的)(图)(谱)(看)(出)(来)(这)(个)(行)(业)(利)(润)(的)(比)(率)(高)(,但)(不)(是)(一)(个)(严)(重)(的)(事)(情)(,这)(是)(我)(们)(得)(到)(的)(第)(一)(个)(对)(比)(。
第)(二)(,我)(们)(看)(一)(下)(息)(差)(,其)(实)(从)(中)(国)(和)(其)(他)(国)(家)(的)(息)(差)(对)(比)(来)(看)(,我)(们)(处)(于)(一)(个)(中)(等)(的)(水)(平)(,所)(有)(的)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(的)(利)(差)(一)(定)(远)(远)(高)(于)(中)(国)(,发)(达)(国)(家)(只)(有)(那)(些)(陷)(入)(低)(速)(增)(长)(的)(接)(近)(零)(利)(率)(的)(国)(家)(,利)(差)(才)(低)(于)(中)(国)(。
我)(们)(应)(该)(更)(深)(层)(次)(地)(去)(想)(,银)(行)(的)(利)(差)(是)(怎)(么)(决)(定)(的)(,本)(质)(上)(它)(反)(应)(资)(金)(的)(回)(报)(率)(,应)(该)(和)(GDP的)(增)(速)((名)(义)(GDP的)(增)(速)()是)(相)(关)(的)(,它)(其)(实)(应)(该)(和)(社)(会)(的)(回)(报)(率)(是)(相)(关)(的)(。从)(这)(个)(角)(度)(来)(讲)(,其)(实)(中)(国)(的)(银)(行)(利)(差)(应)(该)(来)(说)(是)(一)(个)(偏)(低)(的)(水)(平)(,或)(者)(整)(个)(中)(国)(金)(融)(行)(业)(的)(利)(率)(都)(是)(一)(个)(偏)(低)(的)(水)(平)(。
我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,改)(革)(开)(放)(之)(后)(,一)(直)(到)(最)(近)(,中)(国)(整)(个)(国)(家)(的)(金)(融)(结)(构)(,其)(实)(是)(说)(,鼓)(励)(用)(钱)(的)(人)(在)(占)(这)(些)(持)(有)(存)(款)(各)(方)(的)(便)(宜)(,这)(个)(是)(一)(个)(国)(家)(鼓)(励)(制)(造)(业)(或)(者)(说)(鼓)(励)(工)(业)(发)(展)(的)(一)(个)(结)(构)(。
当)(然)(,我)(可)(以)(说)(这)(是)(成)(功)(的)(结)(构)(,因)(为)(所)(有)(其)(他)(的)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(,当)(它)(的)(GDP增)(速)(比)(较)(高)(的)(时)(候)(,利)(率)(一)(定)(都)(很)(高)(,只)(有)(中)(国)(是)(一)(个)(例)(外)(,我)(们)(研)(究)(了)(所)(有)(的)(东)(南)(亚)(国)(家)(,亚)(洲)(四)(小)(龙)(到)(拉)(美)(的)(这)(些)(国)(家)(。
在)(他)(们)(的)(目)(前)(阶)(段)(和)(曾)(经)(的)(高)(速)(增)(长)(阶)(段)(,银)(行)(利)(率)(都)(在)(一)(个)(比)(较)(高)(的)(水)(平)(,只)(不)(过)(我)(们)(中)(国)(确)(实)(是)(金)(融)(扭)(曲)(,这)(个)(扭)(曲)(是)(鼓)(励)(借)(钱)(的)(人)(扩)(大)(再)(生)(产)(,收)(入)(分)(配)(上)(不)(利)(于)(拥)(有)(存)(款)(的)(人)(,是)(这)(样)(的)(一)(个)(格)(局)(。
我)(们)(银)(行)(为)(什)(么)(赚)(钱)(,很)(简)(单)(的)(一)(个)(指)(标)(是)(成)(本)(收)(入)(比)(。中)(国)(和)(美)(国)(的)(银)(行)(做)(一)(个)(对)(比)(,我)(们)(是)(一)(个)(持)(续)(下)(降)(的)(阶)(段)(,远)(低)(于)(美)(国)(银)(行)(业)(的)(水)(平)(。
我)(们)(和)(全)(球)(的)(其)(他)(国)(家)(的)(银)(行)(做)(一)(个)(对)(比)(,我)(们)(也)(是)(最)(低)(的)(,为)(什)(么)(?我)(们)(看)(到)(,过)(去)(十)(年)(,银)(行)(业)(的)(劳)(动)(生)(产)(率)(在)(迅)(速)(提)(高)(,银)(行)(的)(资)(产)(增)(加)(了)(四)(倍)(,员)(工)(增)(加)(了)(40%,单)(人)(对)(应)(的)(资)(产)(是)(一)(个)(30度)(角)(的)(一)(个)(斜)(线)(,一)(路)(往)(上)(走)(。
所)(以)(我)(们)(会)(发)(现)(,中)(国)(的)(银)(行)(如)(果)(和)(国)(外)(银)(行)(做)(一)(个)(对)(比)(,和)(发)(达)(国)(家)(的)(银)(行)(做)(对)(比)(,我)(们)(人)(均)(的)(资)(产)(对)(应)(是)(接)(近)(的)(,但)(是)(我)(们)(人)(均)(的)(工)(资)(是)(有)(差)(异)(的)(。
虽)(然)(银)(行)(业)(的)(工)(资)(水)(平)(在)(全)(社)(会)(总)(体)(是)(比)(较)(高)(的)(水)(平)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,建)(行)(基)(本)(人)(均)(的)(工)(资)(,人)(均)(薪)(酬)(的)(支)(出)(大)(概)(25万)(,招)(行)(大)(概)(在)(40多)(万)(的)(一)(个)(水)(平)(,毫)(无)(疑)(问)(,他)(们)(高)(于)(我)(们)(的)(社)(会)(平)(均)(水)(平)(,但)(是)(低)(于)(国)(外)(同)(行)(。
因)(为)(我)(们)(有)(了)(这)(样)(一)(个)(很)(高)(的)(生)(产)(力)(,你)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,国)(外)(银)(行)(业)(基)(本)(上)(是)(三)(分)(之)(一)(的)(收)(入)(付)(给)(员)(工)(做)(成)(本)(,中)(国)(基)(本)(上)(比)(他)(们)(低)(了)(18%。这)(本)(身)(构)(成)(了)(一)(个)(巨)(大)(差)(异)(的)(基)(础)(,这)(是)(中)(国)(能)(够)(持)(续)(有)(一)(个)(银)(行)(业)(比)(较)(好)(回)(报)(的)(原)(因)(。
我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(银)(行)(的)(生)(意)(,一)(百)(块)(钱)(的)(资)(产)(,银)(行)(通)(过)(放)(贷)(或)(者)(利)(差)(,中)(间)(业)(务)(收)(入)(可)(能)(收)(两)(块)(五)(到)(三)(块)(钱)(,员)(工)(成)(本)(大)(概)(40-50个)(BP,其)(他)(的)(费)(用)(大)(概)(40-50个)(BP,还)(有)(150-200的)(BP的)(拨)(备)(前)(的)(利)(润)(,提)(一)(百)(多)(个)(BP的)(话)(,回)(报)(率)(还)(是)(蛮)(高)(的)(,ROE还)(是)(能)(够)(做)(到)(1%的)(,这)(是)(中)(国)(的)(一)(个)(情)(况)(。
我)(们)(再)(看)(看)(信)(用)(成)(本)(怎)(么)(样)(,坏)(帐)(怎)(么)(样)(影)(响)(银)(行)(。全)(世)(界)(最)(极)(端)(的)(例)(子)(是)(日)(本)(的)(银)(行)(。
我)(们)(研)(究)(日)(本)(银)(行)(整)(个)(的)(历)(史)(,尤)(其)(是)(九)(十)(年)(代)(泡)(沫)(经)(济)(破)(灭)(之)(后)(,到)(完)(全)(消)(化)(它)(的)(资)(产)(问)(题)(的)(历)(史)(,从)(1994年)(到)(2005年)(,整)(个)(日)(本)(银)(行)(业)(经)(历)(了)(完)(整)(周)(期)(,累)(计)(处)(理)(了)(91万)(亿)(日)(元)(的)(不)(良)(贷)(款)(,占)(整)(个)(贷)(款)(的)(18%,这)(就)(是)(日)(本)(的)(代)(价)(,日)(本)(银)(行)(业)(的)(代)(价)(。
看)(看)(我)(们)(自)(己)(,2011年)(温)(州)(首)(先)(爆)(发)(了)(金)(融)(危)(机)(,因)(为)(高)(贸)(,国)(家)(宏)(观)(调)(控)(,加)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(的)(煤)(炭)(行)(业)(的)(损)(失)(和)(房)(地)(产)(,整)(个)(温)(州)(出)(现)(了)(很)(大)(的)(问)(题)(。
经)(过)(五)(年)(时)(间)(,2016年)(的)(时)(候)(,温)(州)(的)(银)(行)(出)(现)(了)(根)(本)(转)(变)(,我)(们)(看)(看)(这)(个)(过)(程)(怎)(么)(样)(过)(来)(的)(:
从)(2011年)(到)(2016年)(,这)(五)(年)(的)(时)(间)(,温)(州)(累)(计)(处)(理)(了)(不)(良)(贷)(款)(大)(概)(1400个)(亿)(。
而)(在)(2016年)(6月)(份)(,它)(的)(贷)(款)(余)(额)(是)(7800亿)(,基)(本)(上)(18%的)(贷)(款)(被)(处)(理)(掉)(,如)(果)(我)(们)(按)(照)(清)(收)(比)(例)(30%、损)(失)(比)(例)(70%来)(估)(算)(,基)(本)(温)(州)(贷)(款)(的)(12%损)(失)(掉)(了)(,这)(个)(是)(一)(个)(参)(照)(,我)(们)(做)(研)(究)(需)(要)(有)(样)(本)(和)(参)(照)(,这)(个)(是)(坏)(帐)(周)(期)(的)(结)(果)(,对)(于)(我)(们)(未)(来)(的)(判)(断)(至)(少)(有)(了)(一)(个)(尺)(度)(。
我)(们)(统)(计)(最)(大)(的)(八)(家)(银)(行)(,到)(去)(年)(,它)(们)(已)(经)(累)(计)(确)(认)(了)(三)(万)(亿)(的)(表)(内)(贷)(款)(,基)(本)(占)(贷)(款)(余)(额)(的)(6.5%,拨)(备)(大)(概)(五)(点)(几)(。毫)(无)(疑)(问)(,这)(个)(过)(程)(我)(认)(为)(坏)(帐)(整)(个)(积)(聚)(过)(程)(已)(经)(过)(了)(大)(半)(,即)(使)(我)(们)(考)(虑)(中)(国)(的)(银)(行)(体)(系)(经)(历)(十)(几)(个)(点)(坏)(帐)(的)(极)(端)(情)(况)(。
去)(年)(以)(来)(,随)(着)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(,我)(们)(看)(到)(银)(行)(业)(已)(经)(摆)(脱)(了)(坏)(帐)(周)(期)(的)(高)(峰)(。我)(们)(怎)(么)(样)(判)(断)(银)(行)(的)(位)(置)(?首)(先)(判)(断)(资)(产)(质)(量)(周)(期)(,坏)(帐)(周)(期)(。
第)(二)(个)(,我)(们)(要)(更)(深)(一)(步)(理)(解)(银)(行)(业)(务)(的)(特)(点)(,在)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(早)(期)(工)(业)(化)(阶)(段)(,基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(的)(高)(峰)(阶)(段)(,整)(个)(社)(会)(的)(需)(求)(,贷)(款)(的)(需)(求)(是)(企)(业)(为)(主)(,政)(府)(这)(样)(一)(些)(对)(公)(业)(务)(,这)(个)(时)(候)(的)(银)(行)(一)(定)(是)(对)(公)(主)(导)(银)(行)(。
我)(们)(国)(家)(银)(行)(业)(的)(发)(展)(一)(直)(走)(在)(这)(样)(一)(个)(轨)(迹)(上)(面)(,当)(它)(做)(到)(极)(致)(的)(时)(候)(,生)(产)(力)(最)(高)(的)(时)(候)(也)(会)(面)(临)(挑)(战)(,因)(为)(发)(展)(到)(一)(定)(程)(度)(之)(后)(,你)(会)(发)(现)(贷)(款)(的)(需)(求)(下)(来)(了)(,企)(业)(的)(贷)(款)(需)(求)(下)(来)(了)(,或)(者)(比)(例)(会)(下)(来)(,而)(变)(成)(消)(费)(者)(去)(成)(为)(主)(要)(的)(贷)(款)(需)(求)(的)(增)(长)(方)(,房)(贷)(、消)(费)(贷)(。
其)(实)(,银)(行)(的)(业)(务)(模)(式)(本)(质)(上)(和)(我)(们)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(阶)(段)(要)(去)(匹)(配)(、去)(适)(应)(的)(。
这)(几)(年)(一)(个)(很)(大)(的)(变)(化)(是)(,以)(腾)(讯)(和)(阿)(里)(为)(代)(表)(的)(互)(联)(网)(公)(司)(,他)(们)(开)(始)(利)(用)(自)(己)(接)(触)(客)(户)(的)(手)(段)(,实)(际)(上)(是)(改)(变)(了)(银)(行)(业)(的)(游)(戏)(规)(则)(,甚)(至)(是)(说)(降)(低)(了)(银)(行)(业)(发)(展)(零)(售)(业)(务)(的)(天)(花)(板)(。传)(统)(的)(银)(行)(会)(受)(到)(这)(两)(家)(公)(司)(非)(常)(大)(的)(冲)(击)(,因)(为)(他)(们)(有)(最)(低)(成)(本)(的)(零)(售)(获)(客)(的)(手)(段)(。
这)(几)(天)(有)(一)(家)(公)(司)(叫)(趣)(店)(在)(纳)(斯)(达)(克)(上)(市)(,成)(立)(才)(几)(年)(,市)(值)(100亿)(美)(元)(,它)(本)(质)(只)(是)(一)(个)(阿)(里)(流)(量)(的)(贩)(卖)(者)(,但)(这)(里)(已)(经)(可)(以)(看)(出)(来)(,传)(统)(的)(消)(费)(信)(贷)(会)(受)(到)(互)(联)(网)(公)(司)(的)(重)(大)(的)(冲)(击)(。
所)(以)(,自)(己)(体)(会)(一)(下)(研)(究)(的)(工)(作)(是)(什)(么)(工)(作)(,或)(者)(这)(十)(多)(年)(来)(我)(们)(从)(事)(投)(资)(和)(行)(业)(感)(受)(怎)(么)(样)(。我)(觉)(得)(我)(们)(可)(以)(旁)(观)(企)(业)(的)(竞)(争)(和)(兴)(衰)(,观)(察)(行)(业)(的)(变)(迁)(,看)(到)(经)(济)(的)(发)(展)(,体)(会)(到)(经)(济)(的)(脉)(搏)(。当)(然)(,这)(个)(行)(业)(也)(是)(一)(个)(可)(以)(高)(屋)(建)(瓴)(、纸)(上)(谈)(兵)(、眼)(高)(手)(低)(的)(行)(业)(,它)(是)(一)(个)(比)(较)(简)(单)(而)(纯)(粹)(的)(工)(作)(。
本)(质)(上)(,和)(我)(们)(很)(多)(同)(学)(在)(学)(校)(里)(面)(做)(的)(研)(究)(工)(作)(是)(一)(个)(类)(似)(的)(工)(作)(,你)(需)(要)(收)(集)(数)(据)(,你)(需)(要)(去)(自)(己)(分)(析)(,然)(后)(你)(需)(要)(去)(有)(更)(多)(的)(不)(同)(的)(想)(法)(,最)(后)(得)(出)(来)(一)(个)(结)(论)(。
未)(来)(超)(额)(收)(益)(可)(能)(存)(在)(于)(巨)(大)(争)(议)(中)(
我)(们)(来)(看)(看)(美)(国)(标)(普)(500最)(大)(市)(值)(的)(十)(家)(公)(司)(的)(变)(迁)(,我)(们)(体)(验)(一)(下)(时)(代)(的)(变)(化)(。八)(十)(年)(代)(的)(时)(候)(,第)(一)(的)(是)(IBM和)(ATT,这)(是)(一)(家)(计)(算)(机)(公)(司)(和)(一)(个)(电)(信)(公)(司)(,后)(面)(基)(本)(都)(是)(石)(油)(公)(司)(。因)(为)(大)(家)(知)(道)(八)(十)(年)(代)(石)(油)(危)(机)(,应)(该)(说)(七)(十)(年)(代)(能)(源)(危)(机)(以)(后)(石)(油)(价)(格)(当)(时)(很)(高)(。
1985年)(的)(时)(候)(IBM还)(在)(第)(一)(位)(,GE上)(来)(了)(,到)(很)(高)(的)(位)(置)(,杜)(邦)(作)(为)(一)(个)(化)(工)(品)(的)(公)(司)(走)(出)(来)(了)(,贝)(尔)(南)(方)(这)(是)(美)(国)(的)(一)(家)(电)(信)(公)(司)(。我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,除)(了)(西)(尔)(斯)(是)(零)(售)(公)(司)(走)(出)(来)(以)(外)(,其)(他)(还)(是)(以)(石)(油)(公)(司)(为)(主)(。
90年)(代)(的)(时)(候)(已)(经)(有)(了)(一)(些)(变)(化)(,百)(时)(美)(施)(贵)(宝)(是)(一)(家)(制)(药)(企)(业)(,默)(克)(是)(制)(药)(企)(业)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(消)(费)(逐)(渐)(逐)(渐)(的)(走)(到)(了)(前)(面)(,可)(口)(可)(乐)(也)(是)(消)(费)(公)(司)(。
到)(1995年)(的)(时)(候)(,更)(大)(的)(变)(化)(是)(微)(软)(公)(司)(出)(现)(了)(,强)(生)(公)(司)(出)(现)(了)(,菲)(利)(普)(莫)(里)(斯)(是)(一)(家)(烟)(草)(企)(业)(。
到)(2000年)(因)(特)(网)(泡)(沫)(的)(时)(候)(,互)(联)(网)(企)(业)(或)(者)(是)(说)(计)(算)(机)(行)(业)(的)(公)(司)(,更)(多)(的)(走)(到)(了)(前)(面)(,同)(时)(我)(们)(以)(第)(一)(次)(看)(到)(了)(金)(融)(行)(业)(的)(公)(司)(走)(到)(了)(前)(十)(大)(。
它)(的)(背)(景)(是)(什)(么)(,是)(美)(国)(九)(十)(年)(代)(开)(始)(金)(融)(放)(松)(管)(制)(,因)(为)(以)(前)(美)(国)(的)(金)(融)(一)(个)(高)(度)(约)(束)(和)(管)(制)(的)(,分)(业)(经)(营)(,它)(没)(有)(巨)(头)(。但)(是)(90年)(代)(,格)(林)(斯)(潘)(推)(动)(了)(美)(国)(金)(融)(行)(业)(大)(规)(模)(的)(并)(购)(重)(组)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(金)(融)(行)(业)(开)(始)(出)(现)(在)(前)(十)(大)(公)(司)(里)(面)(。
2005年)(的)(时)(候)(,花)(旗)(银)(行)(、美)(国)(银)(行)(、AIG都)(出)(来)(了)(。2010年)(,金)(融)(危)(机)(之)(后)(是)(什)(么)(情)(况)(,苹)(果)(公)(司)(第)(一)(次)(走)(上)(了)(前)(台)(,谷)(歌)(也)(出)(现)(了)(,IBM下)(来)(了)(。
到)(2015年)(比)(较)(近)(的)(时)(候)(,互)(联)(网)(企)(业)(更)(多)(走)(向)(了)(前)(台)(,能)(源)(公)(司)(的)(数)(量)(还)(在)(这)(,消)(费)(品)(行)(业)(的)(公)(司)(仍)(然)(在)(这)(里)(。
我)(们)(看)(到)(最)(近)(的)(时)(间)(,就)(是)(我)(们)(目)(前)(所)(处)(的)(阶)(段)(,前)(面)(全)(是)(互)(联)(网)(企)(业)(,我)(们)(看)(到)(前)(十)(大)(公)(司)(就)(是)(三)(个)(行)(业)(了)(,互)(联)(网)(企)(业)(,消)(费)(品)(行)(业)(,金)(融)(行)(业)(。
为)(什)(么)(?我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(之)(前)(还)(有)(能)(源)(行)(业)(。所)(有)(这)(些)(行)(业)(本)(质)(上)(都)(是)(一)(个)(最)(广)(大)(的)(用)(户)(的)(行)(业)(,能)(源)(本)(质)(所)(有)(人)(都)(要)(用)(,虽)(然)(它)(是)(一)(个)(B端)(的)(业)(务)(,本)(质)(上)(是)(一)(个)(C端)(的)(业)(务)(。
互)(联)(网)(企)(业)(更)(是)(前)(所)(未)(有)(的)(接)(触)(到)(客)(户)(,银)(行)(业)(或)(者)(金)(融)(行)(节)(本)(质)(上)(,也)(是)(一)(个)(接)(触)(到)(所)(有)(用)(户)(和)(方)(方)(面)(面)(的)(一)(个)(行)(业)(,所)(以)(我)(们)(看)(到)(你)(要)(成)(为)(最)(大)(的)(行)(业)(,或)(者)(说)(你)(要)(成)(为)(最)(大)(的)(公)(司)(,你)(首)(先)(要)(选)(择)(在)(特)(定)(的)(行)(业)(里)(面)(。
再)(给)(大)(家)(介)(绍)(一)(下)(我)(们)(自)(己)(在)(中)(国)(市)(场)(,研)(究)(中)(国)(公)(司)(的)(一)(些)(感)(悟)(或)(者)(是)(体)(会)(。
中)(国)(所)(有)(的)(行)(业)(都)(曾)(经)(是)(成)(长)(性)(行)(业)(,我)(们)(很)(短)(的)(时)(间)(走)(过)(了)(发)(达)(国)(家)(一)(两)(百)(年)(走)(过)(的)(路)(,但)(是)(所)(有)(的)(行)(业)(都)(会)(成)(熟)(,当)(它)(渗)(透)(率)(到)(一)(定)(的)(水)(平)(的)(时)(候)(所)(有)(行)(业)(都)(会)(变)(成)(成)(熟)(的)(行)(业)(。
这)(个)(时)(候)(,竞)(争)(结)(构)(和)(市)(场)(占)(有)(率)(就)(会)(变)(成)(一)(个)(行)(业)(主)(导)(的)(因)(素)(。在)(成)(长)(的)(阶)(段)(拼)(的)(是)(冒)(险)(精)(神)(,成)(熟)(阶)(段)(拼)(的)(卓)(越)(的)(运)(营)(和)(有)(效)(的)(管)(理)(。而)(且)(,我)(们)(看)(到)(中)(国)(的)(发)(展)(一)(定)(带)(来)(劳)(动)(力)(成)(本)(的)(上)(涨)(。
劳)(动)(力)(成)(本)(的)(上)(涨)(一)(定)(会)(持)(续)(的)(,因)(为)(这)(是)(我)(们)(国)(家)(进)(步)(的)(表)(现)(,我)(们)(必)(须)(要)(接)(受)(劳)(动)(力)(成)(本)(的)(上)(涨)(和)(工)(资)(的)(上)(涨)(,企)(业)(能)(够)(适)(应)(这)(个)(变)(化)(就)(能)(够)(生)(存)(,你)(不)(适)(应)(这)(个)(变)(化)(,你)(就)(必)(须)(被)(迁)(移)(出)(去)(。
我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,进)(入)(稳)(态)(之)(后)(,行)(业)(的)(回)(报)(率)(会)(发)(生)(重)(大)(的)(变)(化)(,标)(准)(化)(的)(产)(品)(往)(往)(回)(报)(率)(比)(较)(低)(,个)(性)(化)(的)(产)(品)(往)(往)(回)(报)(率)(比)(较)(高)(,品)(牌)(会)(出)(现)(溢)(价)(。这)(时)(候)(你)(会)(发)(现)(选)(择)(比)(努)(力)(更)(重)(要)(,你)(在)(一)(个)(比)(较)(惨)(的)(行)(业)(里)(面)(,可)(能)(只)(能)(得)(到)(一)(个)(比)(较)(低)(的)(行)(业)(的)(回)(报)(率)(。
我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,这)(么)(多)(年)(来)(,或)(者)(加)(入)(WTO以)(来)(,中)(国)(企)(业)(的)(内)(部)(竞)(争)(和)(外)(部)(竞)(争)(都)(是)(非)(常)(残)(酷)(的)(,即)(使)(国)(营)(企)(业)(它)(们)(的)(竞)(争)(也)(是)(非)(常)(残)(酷)(的)(。
这)(种)(激)(烈)(的)(竞)(争)(,我)(觉)(得)(就)(像)(一)(个)(生)(态)(系)(统)(的)(自)(然)(进)(化)(和)(演)(化)(,大)(家)(疯)(狂)(的)(抄)(袭)(,疯)(狂)(的)(投)(入)(,然)(后)(有)(强)(大)(的)(野)(心)(或)(冒)(险)(精)(神)(,最)(后)(的)(结)(果)(会)(导)(致)(相)(当)(多)(资)(源)(的)(浪)(费)(,或)(者)(是)(产)(能)(的)(过)(剩)(。
但)(是)(整)(个)(行)(业)(的)(生)(产)(力)(水)(平)(提)(高)(了)(,剩)(下)(的)(公)(司)(他)(也)(会)(代)(表)(行)(业)(最)(高)(的)(生)(产)(力)(的)(水)(平)(,份)(额)(向)(他)(们)(集)(中)(,本)(身)(就)(是)(我)(们)(这)(个)(社)(会)(生)(产)(力)(水)(平)(提)(高)(的)(一)(个)(过)(程)(,也)(是)(我)(们)(收)(入)(水)(平)(整)(体)(往)(前)(走)(的)(必)(然)(的)(过)(程)(。
当)(然)(这)(个)(过)(程)(,总)(体)(来)(上)(促)(进)(了)(社)(会)(福)(利)(的)(增)(加)(,也)(能)(够)(代)(表)(劳)(动)(者)(报)(酬)(的)(提)(高)(,但)(不)(一)(定)(带)(来)(股)(东)(的)(回)(报)(。我)(们)(看)(到)(这)(几)(年)(光)(伏)(行)(业)(就)(是)(这)(样)(的)(一)(个)(例)(子)(,短)(短)(十)(年)(不)(到)(的)(时)(间)(,发)(电)(的)(成)(本)(降)(低)(了)(60%、70%,但)(是)(看)(到)(每)(个)(环)(节)(都)(没)(有)(怎)(么)(挣)(钱)(,因)(为)(产)(品)(太)(高)(度)(的)(标)(准)(化)(。
如)(果)(我)(们)(站)(在)(现)(在)(的)(时)(间)(往)(未)(来)(看)(有)(哪)(些)(机)(会)(,整)(个)(市)(场)(会)(从)(一)(个)(渗)(透)(率)(的)(故)(事)(走)(向)(一)(个)(市)(占)(率)(的)(故)(事)(。
当)(渗)(透)(率)(足)(够)(高)(之)(后)(,必)(须)(从)(其)(他)(人)(手)(里)(面)(夺)(取)(更)(多)(的)(份)(额)(,这)(个)(时)(候)(拼)(的)(就)(是)(企)(业)(的)(运)(营)(能)(力)(了)(,而)(且)(必)(须)(从)(中)(国)(走)(向)(世)(界)(,以)(中)(国)(这)(样)(一)(个)(庞)(大)(的)(母)(国)(市)(场)(为)(基)(础)(,利)(用)(在)(中)(国)(市)(场)(上)(面)(得)(到)(的)(高)(生)(产)(率)(水)(平)(,在)(其)(他)(国)(家)(去)(扩)(展)(,走)(向)(全)(球)(化)(,这)(是)(我)(们)(公)(司)(下)(一)(步)(的)(机)(会)(。到)(落)(后)(国)(家)(复)(制)(中)(国)(的)(经)(验)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(机)(会)(。
正)(如)(过)(去)(几)(十)(年)(来)(,发)(达)(国)(家)(在)(中)(国)(曾)(经)(走)(过)(的)(事)(情)(一)(样)(,发)(达)(国)(家)(的)(投)(资)(在)(中)(国)(也)(实)(现)(一)(样)(。我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,在)(2003年)(到)(2005年)(,我)(们)(很)(不)(看)(好)(自)(己)(国)(家)(的)(银)(行)(的)(时)(候)(,美)(国)(、欧)(洲)(为)(代)(表)(的)(这)(些)(巨)(型)(的)(跨)(国)(企)(业)(参)(股)(了)(中)(国)(的)(银)(行)(,并)(得)(到)(了)(超)(额)(的)(回)(报)(。
在)(这)(之)(前)(,我)(们)(对)(自)(己)(没)(有)(自)(信)(,觉)(得)(自)(己)(很)(烂)(,但)(是)(成)(熟)(经)(济)(体)(知)(道)(,银)(行)(是)(整)(个)(国)(家)(经)(济)(的)(一)(个)(投)(影)(,这)(个)(国)(家)(在)(发)(展)(的)(时)(候)(,银)(行)(一)(定)(会)(受)(益)(的)(。
我)(记)(得)(一)(个)(很)(有)(意)(思)(的)(情)(况)(,当)(时)(建)(行)(找)(人)(寿)(作)(为)(股)(东)(的)(时)(候)(,以)(净)(资)(产)(入)(股)(,人)(寿)(经)(过)(慎)(重)(考)(虑)(没)(有)(同)(意)(,风)(险)(比)(较)(大)(。但)(最)(后)(结)(果)(是)(,美)(国)(这)(些)(银)(行)(作)(为)(股)(东)(参)(与)(进)(来)(了)(。这)(个)(事)(情)(发)(生)(了)(以)(后)(,迎)(来)(了)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(发)(展)(,迎)(来)(了)(银)(行)(业)(回)(报)(率)(的)(提)(高)(,迎)(来)(了)(市)(值)(的)(上)(涨)(。
也)(有)(非)(常)(多)(的)(人)(跳)(出)(来)(说)(,当)(时)(推)(动)(银)(行)(业)(改)(革)(的)(人)(是)(卖)(国)(,这)(里)(我)(就)(不)(理)(解)(了)(,其)(实)(之)(前)(说)(我)(们)(自)(己)(很)(烂)(的)(和)(当)(时)(说)(我)(们)(卖)(国)(的)(可)(能)(都)(是)(同)(一)(批)(人)(。我)(觉)(得)(只)(是)(说)(事)(情)(发)(生)(了)(,你)(的)(态)(度)(在)(发)(生)(转)(变)(。
这)(里)(面)(还)(是)(一)(个)(客)(观)(的)(角)(度)(分)(析)(,一)(个)(历)(史)(经)(验)(的)(角)(度)(判)(断)(,我)(们)(更)(应)(该)(把)(中)(国)(发)(展)(的)(经)(验)(,能)(不)(能)(在)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(、其)(他)(落)(后)(国)(家)(再)(变)(现)(一)(次)(,这)(个)(是)(我)(们)(企)(业)(需)(要)(考)(虑)(的)(事)(情)(。
同)(时)(,我)(们)(觉)(得)(未)(来)(的)(机)(会)(在)(于)(创)(新)(。要)(供)(给)(创)(造)(需)(求)(,新)(的)(产)(品)(才)(能)(提)(供)(新)(的)(需)(求)(和)(市)(场)(。其)(实)(互)(联)(网)(这)(个)(工)(具)(让)(小)(公)(司)(更)(容)(易)(走)(成)(一)(个)(中)(型)(公)(司)(,走)(成)(一)(个)(更)(大)(公)(司)(很)(困)(难)(,因)(为)(可)(以)(更)(容)(易)(满)(足)(一)(些)(细)(分)(的)(消)(费)(者)(,一)(些)(个)(性)(化)(的)(需)(求)(。
从)(资)(本)(市)(场)(来)(考)(虑)(,当)(市)(场)(效)(率)(提)(高)(的)(时)(候)(,很)(难)(创)(造)(阿)(尔)(法)(,有)(可)(能)(会)(走)(向)(一)(个)(主)(动)(去)(创)(造)(阿)(尔)(法)(的)(过)(程)(。这)(里)(面)(美)(国)(的)(3GCapital其)(实)(走)(出)(了)(一)(条)(道)(路)(,它)(把)(企)(业)(完)(全)(拆)(分)(,然)(后)(经)(过)(成)(本)(结)(构)(的)(调)(整)(,或)(者)(是)(其)(他)(一)(些)(改)(造)(的)(转)(型)(来)(创)(造)(阿)(尔)(法)(。可)(能)(是)(因)(为)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(效)(率)(太)(高)(,委)(托)(代)(理)(的)(体)(制)(已)(经)(不)(能)(直)(接)(创)(造)(更)(多)(的)(超)(额)(收)(益)(了)(,必)(须)(自)(己)(走)(向)(前)(台)(,这)(也)(可)(能)(是)(长)(期)(来)(看)(一)(个)(特)(情)(。
我)(们)(总)(体)(上)(面)(临)(一)(个)(巨)(大)(变)(化)(的)(时)(代)(,时)(代)(确)(实)(变)(了)(。从)(前)(在)(巴)(菲)(特)(的)(年)(代)(,投)(资)(还)(是)(少)(数)(人)(的)(事)(情)(,但)(是)(在)(现)(在)(互)(联)(网)(时)(代)(,每)(个)(人)(都)(可)(以)(参)(与)(。信)(息)(的)(传)(播)(速)(度)(非)(常)(高)(,整)(个)(社)(会)(进)(步)(的)(角)(度)(在)(放)(慢)(。
这)(个)(过)(程)(,固)(守)(在)(原)(来)(的)(思)(维)(模)(式)(和)(习)(惯)(里)(面)(,其)(实)(有)(可)(能)(会)(无)(法)(同)(样)(创)(造)(历)(史)(上)(同)(等)(水)(平)(的)(超)(额)(收)(益)(率)(了)(。我)(们)(觉)(得)(未)(来)(,超)(额)(收)(益)(有)(可)(能)(会)(集)(中)(在)(巨)(大)(的)(争)(议)(,或)(者)(巨)(大)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)((行)(业)(中)()。
这)(个)(市)(场)(简)(单)(的)(钱)(一)(定)(比)(过)(去)(更)(难)(赚)(,从)(研)(究)(员)(或)(者)(基)(金)(经)(理)(来)(说)(,有)(可)(能)(需)(要)(运)(营)(商)(自)(己)(的)(经)(历)(越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(投)(到)(,去)(创)(造)(价)(值)(增)(量)(的)(这)(些)(行)(业)(上)(面)(,我)(们)(需)(要)(一)(个)(不)(断)(的)(学)(习)(。同)(时)(在)(资)(本)(市)(场)(里)(一)(定)(要)(独)(立)(思)(考)(,要)(藐)(视)(权)(威)(,数)(据)(和)(逻)(辑)(说)(话)(,其)(他)(的)(都)(要)(抱)(一)(分)(批)(判)(或)(者)(怀)(疑)(的)(态)(度)(。
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