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从刷屏的5.62元年终奖,谈谈银行业缘何跌落神坛

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年12月15日 20:32:31
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(要)(探)(究)(原)(因)(,总)(要)(沿)(着)(一)(个)(角)(度)(追)(本)(溯)(源)(。我)(们)(不)(妨)(从)(银)(行)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(角)(度)(来)(探)(究)(净)(利)(润)(的)(变)(动)(原)(因)(,总)(资)(产)(显)(然)(是)(个)(很)(好)(的)(切)(入)(点)(。总)(资)(产)(对)(净)(利)(润)(的)(影)(响)(分)(为)(两)(块)(,一)(是)(效)(率)(因)(素)(,即)(单)(位)(总)(资)(产)(形)(成)(的)(利)(润)(,用)(总)(资)(产)(利)(润)(率)(指)(标)(来)(反)(映)(;二)(是)(数)(量)(因)(素)(,即)(总)(资)(产)(本)(身)(增)(速)(对)(利)(润)(的)(影)(响)(,用)(总)(资)(产)(同)(比)(增)(速)(指)(标)(来)(反)(映)(。下)(面)(详)(细)(解)(析)(。
效)(率)(因)(素)(:面)(对)(利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(与)(不)(良)(攀)(升)(的)(双)(杀)(,拨)(备)(的)(缓)(冲)(垫)(已)(无)(路)(可)(退)(。
自)(2011年)(以)(来)(,银)(行)(资)(产)(利)(润)(率)(指)(标)(一)(直)(是)(逐)(步)(恶)(化)(的)(。2011年)(为)(1.3%,2016年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(已)(经)(降)(为)(1.08%。不)(要)(小)(瞧)(这)(0.22个)(百)(分)(点)(,以)(商)(业)(银)(行)(170万)(亿)(元)(总)(资)(产)(计)(,0.22%代)(表)(了)(3740亿)(元)(,占)(银)(行)(业)(2015年)(净)(利)(润)(总)(额)(的)(23.48%。也)(就)(是)(说)(,若)(银)(行)(资)(产)(利)(润)(率)(指)(标)(保)(持)(在)(2011年)(的)(水)(平)(,则)(2016年)(银)(行)(业)(净)(利)(润)(至)(少)(多)(增)(加)(23.48个)(百)(分)(点)(。
那)(么)(,导)(致)(银)(行)(资)(产)(利)(润)(率)(逐)(年)(下)(降)(的)(因)(素)(有)(哪)(些)(呢)(?比)(较)(多)(,这)(里)(主)(要)(提)(三)(个)(,分)(别)(是)(净)(息)(差)(、不)(良)(率)(和)(拨)(备)(覆)(盖)(率)(,从)(对)(利)(润)(的)(影)(响)(上)(看)(,两)(负)(一)(正)(。2011年)(以)(来)(,净)(息)(差)(一)(直)(是)(下)(降)(的)(,而)(不)(良)(率)(则)(一)(直)(在)(攀)(升)(,成)(为)(银)(行)(业)(净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(乏)(力)(的)(重)(要)(原)(因)(;而)(拨)(备)(覆)(盖)(率)(的)(逆)(周)(期)(调)(节)(效)(应)(则)(为)(银)(行)(维)(持)(一)(定)(的)(利)(润)(增)(速)(提)(供)(了)(缓)(冲)(的)(空)(间)(。
先)(看)(净)(息)(差)(。2011年)(,银)(行)(业)(净)(息)(差)(为)(2.7%,2016年)(3季)(度)(降)(至)(2.24%。假)(设)(银)(行)(业)(生)(息)(资)(产)(为)(150万)(亿)(,净)(息)(差)(下)(降)(0.46个)(百)(分)(点)(,意)(味)(着)(利)(息)(净)(收)(入)(减)(少)(6900亿)(元)(,考)(虑)(到)(税)(费)(等)(因)(素)(,影)(响)(银)(行)(业)(净)(利)(润)(约)(5000亿)(元)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,单)(净)(息)(差)(下)(降)(一)(项)(,就)(给)(银)(行)(业)(带)(来)(了)(5000亿)(元)(的)(利)(润)(缺)(口)(。
再)(看)(不)(良)(率)(。2011年)(末)(,银)(行)(业)(不)(良)(率)(为)(1%,2016年)(9月)(末)(升)(至)(1.76%。以)(银)(行)(业)(贷)(款)(余)(额)(85万)(亿)(元)(计)(算)(,不)(良)(率)(上)(升)(0.76个)(百)(分)(点)(,将)(导)(致)(净)(利)(润)(下)(降)(约)(6460亿)(元)(。可)(见)(,不)(良)(率)(的)(影)(响)(还)(要)(大)(一)(些)(,给)(银)(行)(业)(带)(来)(了)(6460亿)(元)(的)(利)(润)(缺)(口)(。
若)(只)(看)(净)(息)(差)(和)(不)(良)(率)(两)(个)(指)(标)(影)(响)(,银)(行)(业)(净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(恐)(怕)(早)(已)(转)(正)(为)(负)(,好)(在)(,还)(有)(贷)(款)(拨)(备)(这)(个)(缓)(冲)(垫)(。
2011年)(,银)(行)(业)(拨)(备)(覆)(盖)(率)(高)(达)(278%,以)(不)(良)(贷)(款)(余)(额)(1.5万)(亿)(元)(计)(,若)(拨)(备)(覆)(盖)(率)(维)(持)(在)(278%,则)(银)(行)(业)(需)(要)(增)(加)(拨)(备)(1.5万)(亿)(元)(,对)(应)(冲)(减)(利)(润)(1.5万)(亿)(元)(。意)(味)(着)(,过)(去)(的)(几)(年)(,依)(靠)(拨)(备)(的)(缓)(冲)(效)(应)(,银)(行)(业)(净)(利)(润)(“硬)(是)(”挤)(出)(了)(1.5万)(亿)(元)(,足)(以)(冲)(抵)(不)(良)(率)(和)(净)(息)(差)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(。所)(以)(,我)(们)(才)(看)(到)(,尽)(管)(形)(势)(不)(利)(,银)(行)(业)(仍)(然)(勉)(强)(保)(持)(了)(盈)(利)(正)(增)(长)(。
也)(因)(此)(,调)(节)(拨)(备)(覆)(盖)(率)(成)(为)(银)(行)(业)(维)(持)(“体)(面)(”形)(象)(的)(遮)(羞)(布)(。然)(而)(,这)(种)(好)(日)(子)(也)(不)(多)(了)(。截)(止)(2016年)(3季)(度)(末)(,除)(农)(行)(外)(,五)(大)(国)(有)(银)(行)(拨)(备)(覆)(盖)(率)(均)(已)(低)(于)(160%,而)(150%是)(监)(管)(红)(线)(,意)(味)(着)(通)(过)(拨)(备)(调)(节)(利)(润)(的)(“套)(路)(”也)(已)(走)(到)(尽)(头)(,退)(无)(可)(退)(。
接)(下)(来)(的)(几)(年)(,净)(息)(差)(收)(窄)(和)(不)(良)(率)(攀)(升)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(将)(再)(无)(缓)(冲)(,行)(业)(净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(为)(负)(已)(经)(指)(日)(可)(待)(。
数)(量)(因)(素)(:因)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(带)(来)(的)(融)(资)(需)(求)(下)(降)(或)(是)(最)(重)(要)(原)(因)(。
2011年)(,银)(行)(业)(总)(资)(产)(同)(比)(增)(长)(25.85%,2016年)(前)(3季)(度)(,银)(行)(业)(总)(资)(产)(同)(比)(增)(长)(仅)(为)(14.25%。意)(味)(着)(,若)(2016年)(银)(行)(业)(总)(资)(产)(维)(持)(25.85%的)(增)(速)(,净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(可)(提)(升)(11.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。
总)(资)(产)(增)(速)(的)(下)(降)(有)(融)(资)(需)(求)(下)(降)(、互)(联)(网)(金)(融)(竞)(争)(以)(及)(不)(良)(高)(发)(引)(发)(的)(惜)(贷)(慎)(贷)(情)(绪)(等)(一)(系)(列)(原)(因)(。先)(来)(看)(后)(两)(个)(原)(因)(:因)(不)(良)(高)(发)(引)(发)(的)(慎)(贷)(情)(绪)(肯)(定)(存)(在)(,但)(面)(对)(沉)(重)(的)(指)(标)(压)(力)(,好)(项)(目)(还)(是)(会)(抢)(着)(做)(,不)(好)(的)(项)(目)(才)(会)(引)(发)(慎)(贷)(情)(绪)(,可)(见)(所)(谓)(的)(惜)(贷)(慎)(贷)(并)(非)(根)(本)(原)(因)(,归)(根)(结)(底)(还)(是)(缺)(乏)(好)(项)(目)(;互)(联)(网)(金)(融)(的)(跨)(业)(冲)(击)(的)(确)(存)(在)(,但)(互)(联)(网)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(贷)(款)(余)(额)(整)(体)(不)(大)(,保)(守)(估)(计)(在)(2万)(亿)(元)(以)(内)(,且)(在)(客)(户)(定)(位)(上)(与)(银)(行)(业)(存)(在)(明)(显)(的)(错)(位)(,并)(不)(可)(能)(成)(为)(主)(要)(原)(因)(。
在)(笔)(者)(看)(来)(,融)(资)(需)(求)(下)(降)(才)(是)(最)(为)(重)(要)(的)(原)(因)(,背)(后)(对)(应)(的)(是)(GDP增)(速)(放)(缓)(的)(宏)(观)(影)(响)(。
整)(体)(的)(融)(资)(需)(求)(下)(降)(对)(银)(行)(业)(产)(生)(的)(重)(要)(影)(响)(是)(“优)(质)(资)(产)(荒)(”,当)(过)(去)(几)(十)(年)(或)(十)(几)(年)(积)(累)(的)(对)(公)(优)(质)(大)(客)(户)(不)(再)(需)(要)(贷)(款)(或)(贷)(款)(需)(求)(下)(降)(时)(,基)(层)(银)(行)(业)(机)(构)(在)(尝)(试)(客)(户)(下)(沉)(时)(又)(遭)(遇)(不)(良)(高)(发)(的)(围)(堵)(,不)(得)(不)(接)(受)(贷)(款)(增)(速)(快)(速)(下)(降)(的)(现)(实)(。融)(资)(需)(求)(下)(降)(另)(一)(个)(层)(面)(的)(原)(因)(是)(融)(资)(脱)(媒)(,大)(型)(企)(业)(集)(团)(开)(始)(习)(惯)(于)(在)(资)(本)(市)(场)(或)(国)(际)(市)(场)(获)(取)(资)(金)(支)(持)(,这)(对)(银)(行)(而)(言)(是)(优)(质)(客)(户)(的)(流)(失)(。
融)(资)(需)(求)(下)(降)(带)(来)(的)(直)(观)(影)(响)(是)(有)(钱)(贷)(不)(出)(去)(,怎)(么)(办)(?只)(好)(“投)(”出)(去)(,不)(能)(买)(股)(只)(能)(买)(债)(,造)(就)(了)(这)(几)(年)(债)(市)(的)(辉)(煌)(。然)(并)(卵)(,购)(买)(债)(券)(并)(不)(能)(产)(生)(贷)(款)(发)(放)(的)(货)(币)(创)(造)(效)(应)(,自)(然)(也)(不)(会)(带)(来)(总)(资)(产)(的)(循)(环)(上)(升)(,反)(而)(拖)(累)(总)(资)(产)(增)(速)(的)(提)(升)(。反)(过)(来)(,债)(市)(的)(繁)(荣)(倒)(是)(使)(得)(做)(债)(的)(小)(伙)(伴)(赶)(上)(了)(好)(时)(候)(,年)(终)(奖)(开)(始)(逆)(势)(增)(长)(,这)(几)(年)(金)(融)(业)(的)(土)(豪)(年)(终)(奖)(几)(乎)(都)(发)(生)(在)(债)(券)(相)(关)(部)(门)(。
“苦)(”日)(子)(何)(时)(是)(个)(头)(?地)(主)(家)(也)(没)(有)(余)(粮)(了)(
盈)(利)(增)(速)(一)(天)(不)(触)(底)(回)(升)(,银)(行)(的)(“苦)(”日)(子)(就)(一)(天)(不)(会)(到)(头)(。
如)(上)(所)(述)(,净)(息)(差)(收)(窄)(、不)(良)(率)(攀)(升)(和)(优)(质)(企)(业)(融)(资)(需)(求)(下)(降)(是)(制)(约)(银)(行)(盈)(利)(增)(长)(的)(三)(座)(大)(山)(,净)(息)(差)(的)(收)(窄)(源)(于)(宽)(松)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,而)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(根)(源)(是)(低)(迷)(的)(经)(济)(;不)(良)(的)(攀)(升)(和)(优)(质)(企)(业)(的)(融)(资)(需)(求)(下)(降)(本)(质)(上)(也)(由)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(引)(起)(。最)(终)(,问)(题)(的)(根)(源)(仍)(在)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(。
自)(2008年)(全)(球)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(,国)(内)(经)(济)(就)(开)(始)(了)(由)(繁)(荣)(到)(放)(缓)(的)(转)(变)(,并)(以)(外)(贸)(类)(行)(业)(为)(起)(点)(,逐)(步)(向)(实)(体)(产)(业)(蔓)(延)(,继)(而)(向)(服)(务)(于)(实)(体)(产)(业)(的)(金)(融)(业)(蔓)(延)(。在)(金)(融)(业)(中)(,银)(行)(以)(贷)(款)(的)(形)(式)(服)(务)(于)(实)(体)(经)(济)(,投)(行)(以)(直)(接)(融)(资)(的)(形)(式)(服)(务)(于)(实)(体)(经)(济)(,距)(离)(实)(体)(经)(济)(比)(较)(近)(,都)(已)(经)(先)(后)(受)(到)(波)(及)((当)(然)(,多)(亏)(了)(银)(行)(业)(无)(处)(安)(放)(的)(资)(金)(,债)(券)(融)(资)(是)(个)(例)(外)()。基)(金)(公)(司)(、券)(商)(的)(投)(研)(部)(门)(主)(要)(从)(股)(市)(交)(易)(中)(赚)(钱)(,距)(离)(实)(体)(经)(济)(稍)(微)(远)(一)(些)(,目)(前)(仍)(然)(保)(持)(着)(“土)(豪)(”形)(象)(。相)(比)(之)(下)(,保)(险)(公)(司)(面)(对)(的)(都)(是)(刚)(性)(需)(求)(,保)(费)(仍)(在)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,反)(而)(成)(为)(日)(子)(过)(得)(最)(滋)(润)(的)(。
短)(短)(几)(年)(的)(时)(间)(,处)(在)(金)(字)(塔)(顶)(端)(的)(金)(融)(业)(也)(开)(始)(跌)(落)(神)(坛)(。再)(次)(证)(明)(了)(一)(句)(话)(:“皮)(之)(不)(存)(,毛)(将)(焉)(附)(”。所)(以)(,要)(问)(银)(行)(的)(“苦)(”日)(子)(何)(时)(到)(头)(,归)(根)(结)(底)(还)(是)(取)(决)(于)(实)(体)(经)(济)(何)(时)(从)(衰)(退)(或)(萧)(条)(期)(进)(入)(到)(增)(长)(和)(繁)(荣)(期)(。就)(目)(前)(情)(况)(看)(,或)(许)(五)(年)(后)(吧)(。
当)(然)(,行)(业)(的)(困)(境)(不)(代)(表)(个)(体)(机)(构)(的)(困)(境)(。很)(多)(时)(候)(,严)(峻)(的)(外)(部)(压)(力)(反)(而)(会)(加)(速)(行)(业)(内)(部)(分)(化)(,虽)(然)(说)(银)(行)(业)(总)(体)(来)(看)(一)(年)(不)(如)(一)(年)(,但)(总)(有)(些)(银)(行)(过)(得)(还)(不)(错)(。问)(题)(在)(于)(,没)(有)(机)(构)(能)(脱)(离)(大)(环)(境)(的)(制)(约)(,即)(便)(是)(还)(不)(错)(的)(银)(行)(,光)(景)(也)(是)(大)(不)(如)(前)(了)(,用)(影)(视)(剧)(里)(的)(话)(来)(说)(,“地)(主)(家)(也)(没)(有)(余)(粮)(了)(”。
作)(者)(:薛)(洪)(言)(苏)(宁)(金)(融)(研)(究)(院)(互)(联)(网)(金)(融)(中)(心)(主)(任)(;来)(源)(:苏)(宁)(财)(富)(资)(讯)((ID:SuningWealthInsights)返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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