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叶檀:旧改、资本、户口合谋

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月18日 17:03:47
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(第)(二)(,通)(货)(膨)(胀)(。洋)(酒)(、化)(妆)(品)(、商)(品)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(,影)(响)(不)(了)(普)(通)(人)(生)(活)(,今)(年)(以)(来)(,房)(租)(、二)(师)(兄)(、啤)(酒)(价)(格)(都)(在)(上)(涨)(,价)(格)(压)(力)(从)(上)(游)(传)(导)(到)(下)(游)(终)(端)(市)(场)(,很)(明)(显)(有)(通)(胀)(压)(力)(。我)(们)(已)(经)(撰)(文)(详)(细)(分)(析)(过)(,PX、煤)(炭)(等)(原)(材)(料)(材)(料)(上)(涨)(,其)(实)(,不)(仅)(如)(此)(,纸)(张)(价)(格)(、药)(材)(成)(本)(、黄)(沙)(、水)(泥)(、人)(工)(都)(在)(涨)(,上)(游)(原)(材)(料)(市)(场)(逐)(渐)(垄)(断)(,螺)(纹)(钢)(变)(成)(螺)(纹)(金)(,下)(游)(价)(格)(不)(涨)(才)(怪)(。通)(胀)(是)(货)(币)(的)(产)(物)(,只)(要)(央)(妈)(继)(续)(放)(水)(,上)(游)(原)(材)(料)(价)(格)(继)(续)(上)(涨)(,房)(价)(被)(封)(堵)(,房)(租)(就)(会)(上)(涨)(。
以)(前)(央)(行)(放)(水)(,资)(金)(流)(向)(房)(地)(产)(,现)(在)(一)(二)(手)(房)(市)(场)(处)(于)(半)(冻)(结)(状)(态)(,京)(沪)(二)(手)(房)(只)(能)(降)(价)(求)(售)(,资)(金)(开)(始)(寻)(求)(各)(行)(业)(的)(垄)(断)(溢)(价)(。租)(房)(市)(场)(,资)(本)(进)(入)(方)(兴)(未)(艾)(。即)(使)(以)(这)(样)(的)(速)(度)(,相)(比)(高)(房)(价)(,租)(金)(回)(报)(率)(还)(是)(很)(低)(。看)(来)(,房)(租)(没)(有)(涨)(到)(位)(。根)(据)(苏)(宁)(金)(融)(研)(究)(院)(特)(约)(研)(究)(员)(江)(瀚)(的)(分)(析)(,截)(至)(2017年)(底)(,中)(国)(一)(线)(城)(市)(平)(均)(租)(金)(回)(报)(率)(是)(1.5%,假)(设)(房)(价)(、租)(金)(不)(变)(,北)(上)(深)(的)(购)(房)(者)(要)(70年)(左)(右)(回)(本)(。自)(如)(表)(示)(自)(己)(很)(冤)(枉)(,除)(北)(京)(微)(利)(外)(,其)(他)(城)(市)(租)(金)(无)(法)(赢)(利)(,我)(是)(相)(信)(的)(。我)(们)(做)(过)(这)(方)(面)(的)(研)(究)(,起)(码)(到)(现)(在)(为)(止)(,长)(租)(市)(场)(公)(司)(还)(在)(疯)(狂)(烧)(钱)(。
看)(看)(世)(界)(上)(其)(他)(国)(家)(,租)(金)(回)(报)(率)(最)(低)(的)(日)(本)(,最)(近)(回)(报)(率)(在)(2.7%左)(右)(,接)(近)(中)(国)(的)(两)(倍)(,最)(高)(的)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(,租)(金)(回)(报)(率)(接)(近)(中)(国)(的)(三)(倍)(,达)(到)(了)(4.4%。迪)(拜)(这)(些)(国)(家)(租)(金)(回)(报)(率)(都)(不)(低)((豪)(宅)(除)(外)()。如)(果)(想)(要)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(恢)(复)(健)(康)(,房)(价)(稳)(定)(,房)(租)(和)(收)(入)(上)(涨)(,是)(最)(好)(的)(路)(径)(。有)(人)(问)(,不)(能)(让)(房)(价)(下)(跌)(吗)(?谁)(敢)(试)(试)(?
第)(三)(,旧)(改)(、拆)(违)(、收)(税)(,租)(房)(市)(场)(人)(心)(恐)(慌)(。地)(方)(政)(府)(的)(政)(策)(火)(上)(浇)(油)(,北)(京)(在)(拆)(违)(,深)(圳)(在)(旧)(改)(。每)(年)(毕)(业)(季)(,大)(学)(生)(投)(简)(历)(最)(多)(的)(城)(市)(就)(是)(这)(座)(宇)(宙)(中)(心)(城)(市)(,租)(赁)(市)(场)(供)(不)(应)(求)(。贝)(壳)(研)(究)(院)(、21世)(纪)(产)(业)(研)(究)(院)(联)(合)(发)(布)(的)(《2018年)(中)(国)(住)(房)(租)(赁)(白)(皮)(书)(》显)(示)(,截)(至)(目)(前)(,我)(国)(租)(赁)(人)(口)(共)(计)(1.68亿)(,供)(不)(应)(求)(。北)(京)(有)(租)(赁)(人)(口)(800万)(人)(,目)(前)(租)(赁)(房)(源)(量)(约)(为)(350万)(间)(,租)(赁)(缺)(口)(400万)(间)(以)(上)(。
《财)(经)(》记)(者)(调)(查)(,近)(年)(来)(,北)(京)(拆)(除)(城)(乡)(结)(合)(部)(的)(城)(中)(村)(、出)(租)(大)(院)(、工)(业)(区)(公)(寓)(,这)(些)(地)(区)(承)(载)(了)(大)(量)(外)(来)(人)(口)(。丰)(台)(区)(南)(四)(环)(外)(的)(久)(敬)(庄)(57号)(院)(,丰)(台)(区)(著)(名)(的)(外)(地)(人)(聚)(集)(地)(,占)(地)(面)(积)(达)(145.4亩)(,其)(中)(有)(12万)(平)(方)(米)(的)(建)(筑)(供)(出)(租)(,租)(住)(总)(人)(数)(一)(度)(过)(万)(人)(,在)(2017年)(9月)(份)(拆)(除)(,现)(场)(只)(剩)(下)(数)(个)(商)(品)(楼)(小)(区)(,据)(《北)(京)(日)(报)(》消)(息)(,未)(来)(该)(区)(域)(将)(有)(一)(批)(市)(政)(基)(础)(设)(施)(建)(起)(。拆)(违)(行)(动)(持)(续)(多)(年)(,“疏)(解)(整)(治)(促)(提)(升)(”的)(重)(点)(工)(作)(之)(一)(。从)(2015年)(到)(2017年)(,北)(京)(市)(拆)(违)(面)(积)(分)(别)(是)(1818万)(平)(方)(米)(、3000万)(平)(方)(米)(、5985万)(平)(方)(米)(,每)(年)(实)(际)(完)(成)(的)(拆)(违)(任)(务)(接)(近)(翻)(倍)(。2018年)(前)(4个)(月)(拆)(违)(逾)(1640.9万)(平)(方)(米)(,完)(成)(全)(年)(计)(划)(41%,拆)(除)(量)(是)(去)(年)(同)(期)(的)(3.8倍)(。
2018年)(全)(年)(,北)(京)(计)(划)(拆)(除)(违)(法)(建)(设)(4000万)(平)(方)(米)(以)(上)(。
照)(此)(计)(算)(,2015年)(至)(2018年)(4月)(30日)(数)(据)(,北)(京)(市)(累)(计)(拆)(违)(12443.9万)(平)(方)(米)(,大)(概)(可)(以)(居)(住)(500万)(人)(左)(右)(。新)(增)(住)(宅)(可)(没)(有)(那)(么)(多)(,北)(京)(统)(计)(年)(鉴)(显)(示)(,北)(京)(2016年)(竣)(工)(的)(所)(有)(房)(屋)(,包)(括)(城)(镇)(和)(农)(村)(、包)(括)(住)(宅)(和)(非)(住)(宅)(,总)(计)(3594万)(平)(米)(,明)(显)(少)(于)(同)(一)(年)(拆)(除)(的)(5985万)(平)(方)(米)(违)(建)(。2017年)(,北)(京)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(为)(875万)(平)(方)(米)(,保)(障)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(267万)(平)(方)(米)(,加)(起)(来)(1142万)(平)(方)(米)(,不)(及)(当)(年)(拆)(除)(面)(积)(的)(1/5。北)(京)(常)(住)(人)(口)(2200万)(左)(右)(,户)(籍)(人)(口)(1400万)(,非)(户)(籍)(人)(口)(800万)(。北)(京)(的)(存)(量)(住)(房)(700万)(套)(,人)(房)(比)(是)(0.85-0.9,平)(均)(每)(户)(不)(到)(一)(套)(房)(子)(,全)(中)(国)(平)(均)(水)(平)(是)(1.05左)(右)(,三)(线)(城)(市)(为)(1.2左)(右)(。按)(照)(700万)(套)(,套)(均)(2.1间)(计)(算)(,北)(京)(大)(约)(1500万)(间)(房)(子)(,要)(住)(2200万)(人)(口)(,每)(个)(人)(不)(到)(一)(间)(房)(子)(。
再)(加)(上)(大)(整)(顿)(,按)(照)(要)(求)(,北)(京)(单)(个)(房)(间)(不)(得)(超)(过)(2人)(,不)(得)(分)(割)(出)(租)(,这)(一)(来)(,产)(生)(了)(大)(量)(的)(租)(房)(人)(口)(,推)(动)(房)(租)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(。上)(百)(万)(人)(的)(窝)(被)(拆)(了)(,一)(定)(要)(住)(上)(单)(间)(,这)(对)(低)(收)(入)(阶)(层)(来)(说)(,是)(不)(可)(承)(受)(的)(好)(意)(。有)(关)(部)(门)(本)(意)(大)(概)(是)(减)(少)(人)(口)(,那)(么)(多)(人)(涌)(入)(,资)(源)(承)(载)(不)(了)(。但)(大)(学)(生)(和)(打)(工)(的)(年)(轻)(人)(不)(管)(,北)(京)(机)(会)(多)(啊)(,依)(然)(往)(里)(挤)(。户)(口)(能)(制)(约)(人)(口)(才)(怪)(。深)(圳)(则)(是)(城)(中)(村)(改)(造)(。我)(们)(城)(市)(系)(列)(写)(过)(深)(圳)(的)(文)(章)(,提)(到)(城)(中)(村)(改)(造)(将)(改)(变)(深)(圳)(的)(产)(业)(链)(,华)(强)(北)(手)(机)(的)(装)(配)(工)(人)(就)(不)(知)(道)(住)(到)(哪)(儿)(去)(
未)(来)(三)(五)(年)(,大)(部)(分)(城)(中)(村)(不)(可)(能)(被)(划)(入)(征)(地)(拆)(迁)(范)(围)(内)(,这)(是)(隐)(藏)(在)(一)(二)(手)(房)(之)(外)(的)(巨)(大)(独)(立)(市)(场)(。据)(不)(完)(全)(统)(计)(,深)(圳)(目)(前)(尚)(存)(1317个)(城)(中)(村)(,总)(建)(设)(面)(积)(超)(过)(4亿)(平)(米)(,目)(前)(深)(圳)(建)(设)(用)(地)(总)(面)(积)(和)(武)(汉)(相)(当)(,在)(1000平)(方)(公)(里)(左)(右)(,每)(平)(方)(公)(里)(等)(于)(100万)(平)(方)(米)(,城)(中)(村)(占)(据)(40%,再)(加)(上)(其)(他)(违)(建)(,如)(果)(拆)(除)(一)(半)(,深)(圳)(的)(房)(租)(就)(会)(大)(涨)(特)(涨)(。比)(如)(清)(湖)(村)(,在)(这)(次)(深)(圳)(规)(土)(委)(新)(政)(之)(前)(,这)(些)(地)(块)(和)(建)(筑)(开)(发)(商)(顶)(眼)(红)(,金)(地)(和)(万)(科)(已)(经)(介)(入)(,开)(发)(成)(长)(租)(公)(寓)(,既)(能)(保)(证)(现)(金)(流)(,又)(符)(合)(房)(住)(不)(炒)(的)(政)(策)(,政)(府)(企)(业)(都)(开)(心)(,深)(漂)(们)(大)(概)(很)(不)(开)(心)(
最)(后)(,资)(本)(介)(入)(,跑)(马)(圈)(地)(。曾)(任)(我)(爱)(我)(家)(集)(团)(副)(总)(裁)(的)(胡)(景)(晖)(,好)(像)(已)(经)(不)(想)(在)(行)(业)(内)(混)(了)(,他)(指)(责)(自)(如)(、蛋)(壳)(公)(寓)(为)(代)(表)(的)(长)(租)(公)(寓)(运)(营)(商)(,为)(了)(扩)(大)(规)(模)(,以)(高)(于)(市)(场)(正)(常)(价)(格)(的)(20%到)(40%在)(争)(抢)(房)(源)(,人)(为)(抬)(高)(收)(房)(价)(格)(。这)(些)(长)(租)(公)(寓)(重)(装)(修)(、N+1出)(租)(模)(式)(加)(剧)(了)(租)(房)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(。在)(这)(一)(波)(房)(租)(上)(涨)(中)(,这)(些)(长)(租)(企)(业)(的)(推)(波)(助)(澜)(占)(到)(了)(三)(分)(之)(一)(的)(权)(重)(。都)(说)(2017年)(是)(我)(国)(长)(租)(公)(寓)(元)(年)(,自)(如)(2011年)(入)(场)(,2018年)(上)(半)(年)(管)(理)(的)(公)(寓)(已)(经)(超)(过)(70万)(间)(,今)(年)(的)(目)(标)(是)(突)(破)(100万)(间)(。很)(多)(人)(认)(为)(长)(租)(公)(寓)(应)(该)(集)(中)(做)(1房)(,做)(年)(轻)(白)(领)(生)(意)(,可)(是)(自)(如)(却)(开)(发)(出)(了)(2房)(、3房)(乃)(至)(“豪)(宅)(”产)(品)(。房)(租)(还)(能)(不)(涨)(?
长)(租)(公)(寓)(想)(突)(围)(,第)(一)(步)(是)(重)(金)(跑)(马)(圈)(地)(,这)(就)(有)(了)(话)(语)(权)(。目)(前)(,全)(国)(用)(于)(出)(租)(的)(房)(屋)(是)(7500万)(套)(。如)(果)(平)(均)(每)(套)(房)(子)(年)(租)(金)(为)(3万)(,总)(市)(场)(规)(模)(大)(约)(在)(2.2万)(亿)(。再)(加)(10%的)(服)(务)(性)(消)(费)(,整)(个)(租)(赁)(市)(场)(2019年)(会)(到)(2.5万)(亿)(。10年)(以)(后)(则)(可)(能)(会)(到)(5万)(亿)(。自)(如)(认)(为)(,10年)(后)(,排)(名)(前)(10的)(长)(租)(公)(寓)(企)(业)(可)(能)(会)(占)(据)(60%的)(租)(赁)(市)(场)(,而)(自)(如)(则)(希)(望)(占)(领)(整)(个)(市)(场)(的)(20%,在)(某)(些)(重)(点)(城)(市)(做)(到)(30%。以)(前)(夸)(耀)(的)(资)(本)(,现)(在)(成)(为)(罪)(状)(,跟)(其)(他)(行)(业)(一)(样)(,租)(赁)(市)(场)(资)(源)(集)(聚)(,否)(则)(他)(们)(不)(可)(能)(杀)(出)(红)(海)(,更)(不)(可)(能)(享)(有)(溢)(价)(。
房)(租)(上)(涨)(,怎)(么)(办)(?一)(是)(扩)(大)(供)(应)(,拆)(旧)(补)(旧)(适)(可)(而)(止)(,等)(等)(产)(业)(和)(收)(入)(发)(展)(的)(脚)(步)(,二)(是)(逼)(手)(上)(有)(房)(的)(人)(进)(入)(租)(赁)(市)(场)(,三)(是)(重)(新)(制)(订)(游)(戏)(规)(则)(,让)(年)(轻)(人)(有)(生)(存)(的)(空)(间)(。年)(轻)(人)(买)(不)(起)(房)(,是)(个)(悲)(剧)(,难)(道)(城)(市)(年)(轻)(人)(房)(租)(占)(收)(入)(的)(一)(半)(,企)(业)(根)(本)(用)(不)(起)(员)(工)(,就)(不)(是)(悲)(剧)(了)(吗)(?返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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