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徐高:经济视角看特朗普

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月19日 09:56:43
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(11月)(20日)(,徐)(高)(在)(北)(大)(国)(发)(院)(朗)(润)("格)(政)(论)(坛)(演)(讲)(
特)(朗)(普)(的)(当)(选)(让)(包)(括)(我)(在)(内)(许)(多)(人)(感)(到)(意)(外)(。但)(事)(后)(来)(想)(,特)(朗)(普)(的)(经)(济)(政)(策)(导)(向)(还)(是)(切)(中)(了)(美)(国)(经)(济)(当)(前)(的)(时)(弊)(,有)(其)(正)(面)(意)(义)(。从)(这)(个)(意)(义)(上)(来)(说)(,特)(朗)(普)(能)(够)(当)(选)(也)(有)(其)(道)(理)(。
什)(么)(经)(济)(力)(量)(把)(特)(朗)(普)(推)(上)(了)(总)(统)(宝)(座)(?
导)(致)(特)(朗)(普)(当)(选)(的)(因)(素)(有)(很)(多)(,经)(济)(、社)(会)(、政)(治)(层)(面)(的)(都)(有)(。这)(里)(我)(们)(聚)(焦)(在)(其)(中)(的)(经)(济)(因)(素)(。这)(个)(因)(素)(就)(是)(过)(去)(十)(几)(年)(全)(球)(失)(衡)(的)(扩)(张)(和)(收)(缩)(。
下)(面)(的)(柱)(状)(图)(是)(世)(界)(几)(个)(主)(要)(经)(济)(体)(经)(常)(帐)(户)(盈)(余)(或)(者)(逆)(差)(占)(世)(界)(GDP的)(比)(重)(。次)(贷)(危)(机)(是)(个)(分)(水)(岭)(。之)(前)(全)(球)(失)(衡)(快)(速)(扩)(张)(,之)(后)(则)(快)(速)(收)(缩)(。仔)(细)(看)(全)(球)(失)(衡)(分)(布)(的)(话)(,能)(够)(看)(到)(顺)(差)(国)(有)(中)(国)(、日)(本)(及)(其)(他)(亚)(洲)(国)(家)(,还)(有)(中)(东)(及)(北)(非)(这)(些)(石)(油)(输)(出)(国)(。几)(十)(年)(来)(全)(球)(主)(要)(逆)(差)(国)(就)(一)(个)(,就)(是)(美)(国)(。换)(句)(话)(说)(,顺)(差)(国)(的)(顺)(差)(基)(本)(上)(都)(来)(自)(美)(国)(的)(逆)(差)(。
在)(全)(球)(经)(常)(账)(户)(失)(衡)(的)(图)(景)(中)(,我)(们)(看)(到)(的)(是)(全)(球)(货)(物)(及)(商)(品)(的)(大)(流)(动)(,从)(顺)(差)(国)(流)(向)(美)(国)(。而)(支)(撑)(这)(种)(商)(品)(流)(动)(的)(,是)(从)(顺)(差)(国)(流)(向)(美)(国)(持)(续)(流)(动)(的)(资)(本)(。以)(中)(国)(为)(例)(,过)(去)(十)(多)(年)(,中)(国)(经)(常)(账)(户)(盈)(余)(的)(绝)(大)(部)(分)(都)(变)(成)(了)(对)(美)(国)(金)(融)(资)(产)(的)(增)(持)(。换)(句)(话)(说)(,都)(借)(给)(了)(美)(国)(。
这)(对)(应)(着)(美)(国)(国)(内)(的)(加)(杠)(杆)(。在)(2000年)(之)(后)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(进)(入)(了)(加)(速)(加)(杠)(杆)(的)(过)(程)(,债)(务)(增)(量)(占)(GDP比)(重)(逐)(年)(增)(大)(。这)(种)(债)(务)(的)(加)(速)(累)(积)(支)(撑)(了)(美)(国)(国)(内)(旺)(盛)(的)(需)(求)(,进)(而)(变)(成)(美)(国)(对)(全)(球)(商)(品)(需)(求)(的)(扩)(张)(,最)(终)(表)(现)(为)(美)(国)(不)(断)(扩)(大)(的)(经)(常)(帐)(户)(赤)(字)(。
因)(此)(,全)(球)(失)(衡)(说)(白)(了)(就)(是)(一)(个)(顺)(差)(国)(把)(自)(己)(顺)(差)(累)(积)(的)(资)(本)(借)(给)(美)(国)(,支)(持)(美)(国)(购)(买)(顺)(差)(国)(产)(品)(的)(故)(事)(。在)(这)(个)(过)(程)(中)(,顺)(差)(国)(通)(过)(商)(品)(和)(资)(本)(双)(重)(补)(贴)(了)(逆)(差)(国)(美)(国)(。在)(这)(个)(过)(程)(中)(,顺)(差)(国)(也)(享)(受)(到)(了)(来)(自)(美)(国)(的)(强)(大)(外)(需)(,因)(而)(国)(内)(经)(济)(向)(好)(,也)(不)(吃)(亏)(。
如)(果)(用)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(失)(衡)(的)(例)(子)(来)(讲)(就)(是)(,中)(国)(用)(净)(出)(口)(换)(回)(的)(顺)(差)((外)(汇)(),买)(了)(美)(债)(。然)(后)(美)(国)(用)(这)(个)(钱)(买)(中)(国)(的)(商)(品)(。
但)(很)(遗)(憾)(的)(是)(,这)(个)(游)(戏)(在)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(爆)(发)(后)(就)(玩)(不)(下)(去)(了)(。美)(国)(加)(杠)(杆)(需)(要)(由)(头)(,这)(个)(由)(头)(就)(是)(美)(国)(的)(房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(。美)(国)(房)(价)(从)(1990年)(就)(开)(始)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(。2000年)(之)(后)(,当)(大)(家)(发)(现)(房)(价)(已)(经)(连)(涨)(了)(十)(多)(年)(之)(后)(,自)(然)(就)(预)(期)(房)(价)(会)(一)(直)(涨)(上)(去)(。
有)(了)(这)(样)(的)(预)(期)(,银)(行)(在)(放)(房)(屋)(按)(揭)(贷)(款)(时)(就)(不)(太)(考)(虑)(风)(险)(,因)(而)(导)(致)(了)(次)(级)(按)(揭)(贷)(款)(的)(大)(量)(发)(放)(,推)(升)(了)(美)(国)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(。但)(是)(,随)(着)(房)(价)(在)(2007年)(的)(触)(顶)(回)(落)(,这)(个)(游)(戏)(玩)(不)(下)(去)(了)(。
当)(房)(价)(开)(始)(下)(跌)(,次)(级)(按)(揭)(贷)(款)(的)(质)(量)(就)(持)(续)(恶)(化)(。所)(有)(建)(立)(在)(它)(之)(上)(的)(金)(融)(衍)(生)(品)(也)(开)(始)(大)(面)(积)(违)(约)(,最)(终)(导)(致)(了)(金)(融)(体)(系)(的)(整)(体)(崩)(塌)(,形)(成)(了)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(。次)(贷)(危)(机)(逆)(转)(了)(美)(国)(之)(前)(的)(加)(杠)(杆)(。在)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(之)(后)(的)(一)(段)(时)(间)(里)(,美)(国)(民)(间)(部)(门)(甚)(至)(一)(度)(成)(为)(净)(储)(蓄)(者)(。美)(国)(从)(之)(前)(的)(借)(钱)(消)(费)(,变)(成)(之)(后)(的)(存)(钱)(还)(债)(,杠)(杆)(率)(从)(升)(到)(降)(,自)(然)(就)(导)(致)(其)(需)(求)(急)(剧)(萎)(缩)(。
美)(国)(的)(需)(求)(下)(降)(导)(致)(美)(国)(的)(经)(常)(账)(户)(逆)(差)(急)(剧)(收)(缩)(,顺)(差)(国)(的)(顺)(差)(也)(跟)(着)(收)(缩)(。全)(球)(都)(感)(受)(到)(了)(美)(国)(需)(求)(萎)(缩)(带)(来)(的)(冲)(击)(,快)(速)(陷)(入)(了)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(。
既)(然)(美)(国)(用)(加)(杠)(杆)(来)(扩)(张)(全)(球)(总)(需)(求)(的)(游)(戏)(玩)(不)(下)(去)(了)(,世)(界)(经)(济)(就)(应)(该)(相)(应)(调)(整)(。顺)(差)(国)(需)(要)(把)(其)(国)(内)(过)(剩)(的)(储)(蓄)(转)(化)(为)(国)(内)(消)(费)(,而)(不)(要)(再)(试)(图)(借)(出)(去)(。因)(为)(国)(际)(经)(济)(中)(已)(经)(没)(有)(足)(够)(大)(的)(加)(杠)(杆)(力)(量)(来)(平)(衡)(这)(些)(储)(蓄)(了)(。而)(经)(济)(规)(律)(来)(讲)(,在)(后)(危)(机)(时)(代)(资)(本)(回)(报)(率)(已)(经)(降)(得)(远)(远)(低)(于)(危)(机)(之)(前)(,全)(球)(储)(蓄)(率)(理)(应)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(。但)(现)(实)(是)(,直)(到)(最)(近)(,全)(球)(储)(蓄)(率)(仍)(然)(处)(于)(相)(当)(高)(的)(位)(置)(,而)(没)(有)(大)(规)(模)(向)(消)(费)(转)(化)(。
后)(危)(机)(时)(代)(全)(球)(经)(济)(有)(很)(多)(病)(症)(,都)(可)(以)(归)(结)(为)(到)(全)(球)(储)(蓄)(过)(剩)(上)(面)(去)(。
储)(蓄)(可)(贷)(资)(金)(的)(来)(源)(。而)(对)(资)(金)(需)(求)(则)(主)(要)(来)(自)(投)(资)(项)(目)(。在)(经)(济)(减)(速)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,投)(资)(回)(报)(率)(不)(高)(,投)(资)(者)(启)(动)(新)(投)(资)(项)(目)(的)(热)(情)(不)(高)(。这)(样)(,过)(剩)(的)(可)(贷)(资)(金)(在)(金)(融)(市)(场)(上)(就)(找)(不)(到)(足)(够)(的)(资)(金)(需)(求)(方)(,从)(而)(演)(变)(成)(“资)(产)(荒)(”。储)(蓄)(加)(上)(消)(费)(就)(是)(总)(收)(入)(,投)(资)(加)(上)(消)(费)(是)(总)(支)(出)(,储)(蓄)(过)(剩)(就)(意)(味)(着)(收)(入)(大)(于)(支)(出)(,经)(济)(中)(支)(出)(意)(愿)(不)(足)(。储)(蓄)(加)(消)(费)(还)(是)(总)(产)(出)(,储)(蓄)(加)(投)(资)(还)(是)(总)(需)(求)(。这)(样)(,需)(求)(不)(足)(或)(者)(说)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(也)(自)(然)(产)(生)(。如)(果)(全)(球)(有)(一)(个)(调)(整)(机)(制)(,把)(过)(剩)(储)(蓄)(转)(化)(为)(消)(费)(,这)(些)(问)(题)(都)(不)(会)(发)(生)(。
但)(是)(问)(题)(是)(全)(球)(的)(调)(整)(机)(制)(在)(中)(国)(这)(儿)(被)(卡)(住)(了)(。从)(过)(去)(几)(十)(年)(中)(国)(储)(蓄)(率)(与)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(统)(计)(关)(系)(来)(看)(,后)(危)(机)(时)(代)(我)(国)(储)(蓄)(率)(反)(常)(地)(高)(。而)(全)(球)(除)(中)(国)(以)(外)(的)(地)(区)(,储)(蓄)(率)(则)(已)(经)(随)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(减)(速)(而)(下)(降)(,与)(过)(去)(相)(比)(并)(不)(反)(常)(。从)(这)(样)(的)(对)(比)(来)(看)(,全)(球)(高)(储)(蓄)(的)(症)(结)(在)(中)(国)(。在)(这)(个)(背)(后)(,是)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(收)(入)(分)(配)(结)(构)(出)(了)(问)(题)(,把)(过)(多)(的)(收)(入)(导)(向)(了)(消)(费)(者)(之)(外)(的)(部)(门)(,因)(而)(导)(致)(国)(内)(消)(费)(不)(足)(、储)(蓄)(过)(剩)(。这)(种)(情)(况)(预)(计)(还)(会)(长)(期)(存)(在)(。当)(中)(国)(经)(济)(体)(量)(变)(得)(足)(够)(巨)(大)(,在)(世)(界)(经)(济)(中)(都)(举)(足)(轻)(重)(时)(,中)(国)(的)(需)(求)(不)(足)(就)(不)(仅)(仅)(是)(中)(国)(的)(问)(题)(,而)(是)(全)(球)(的)(问)(题)(。
在)(这)(样)(的)(背)(景)(下)(我)(们)(再)(来)(看)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(当)(选)(就)(比)(较)(清)(楚)(了)(。全)(球)(储)(蓄)(过)(剩)(所)(导)(致)(的)(需)(求)(不)(足)(令)(包)(括)(美)(国)(在)(内)(的)(全)(球)(各)(个)(经)(济)(体)(都)(增)(长)(乏)(力)(。这)(时)(,特)(朗)(普)(提)(出)(的)(政)(策)(会)(促)(使)(美)(国)(重)(新)(加)(杠)(杆)(,从)(而)(扩)(张)(全)(球)(总)(需)(求)(。这)(会)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(缓)(解)(当)(前)(的)(经)(济)(困)(局)(。从)(这)(一)(点)(来)(看)(,特)(朗)(普)(当)(选)(也)(有)(其)(道)(理)(。
特)(朗)(普)(药)(方)(不)(治)(本)(但)(能)(治)(标)(
审)(视)(特)(朗)(普)(开)(出)(的)(药)(方)(。他)(的)(加)(杠)(杆)(的)(政)(策)(虽)(然)(不)(能)(从)(根)(本)(上)(解)(决)(过)(剩)(储)(蓄)(的)(问)(题)(,但)(能)(够)(缓)(解)(过)(剩)(储)(蓄)(与)(偏)(弱)(投)(资)(之)(间)(的)(不)(平)(衡)(。既)(然)(不)(能)(减)(少)(储)(蓄)(,那)(就)(增)(加)(投)(资)(增)(加)(债)(务)(,这)(也)(能)(让)(需)(求)(和)(供)(给)(更)(加)(平)(衡)(。所)(以)(,特)(朗)(普)(的)(药)(方)(能)(够)(治)(标)(。
特)(朗)(普)(现)(在)(主)(要)(的)(政)(策)(,一)(是)(宽)(松)(财)(政)(政)(策)(,其)(实)(就)(是)(政)(府)(加)(杠)(杆)(。其)(中)(包)(括)(减)(税)(和)(增)(加)(政)(府)(开)(支)(。粗)(略)(估)(算)(,这)(些)(积)(极)(的)(财)(政)(政)(策)(对)(美)(国)(GDP增)(长)(的)(直)(接)(效)(应)(应)(该)(超)(过)(1个)(百)(分)(点)(。而)(在)(对)(外)(方)(面)(,特)(朗)(普)(的)(保)(护)(主)(义)(倾)(向)(比)(较)(明)(显)(。但)(它)(在)(这)(方)(会)(走)(多)(远)(还)(要)(观)(察)(。但)(需)(要)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,在)(美)(国)(的)(政)(治)(体)(制)(下)(,总)(统)(在)(内)(政)(方)(面)(会)(受)(到)(来)(自)(国)(会)(的)(较)(强)(制)(约)(,但)(在)(对)(外)(方)(面)(总)(统)(的)(权)(力)(却)(大)(得)(多)(。所)(以)(不)(管)(美)(国)(未)(来)(的)(政)(策)(如)(何)(演)(进)(,它)(必)(然)(会)(给)(全)(球)(贸)(易)(市)(场)(带)(来)(更)(高)(不)(确)(定)(性)(。而)(在)(货)(币)(政)(策)(方)(面)(,考)(虑)(到)(特)(朗)(普)(积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(对)(经)(济)(和)(通)(胀)(的)(带)(动)(作)(用)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(紧)(缩)(预)(期)(会)(随)(之)(明)(显)(上)(升)(。
特)(朗)(普)(的)(执)(政)(纲)(领)(历)(史)(地)(看)(并)(不)(反)(常)(
特)(朗)(普)(这)(种)(政)(纲)(,放)(在)(过)(去)(美)(国)(六)(十)(年)(的)(历)(史)(中)(来)(看)(并)(不)(特)(别)(反)(常)(。他)(要)(做)(的)(这)(些)(事)(情)(基)(本)(上)(共)(和)(党)(总)(统)(都)(会)(做)(。在)(下)(图)(中)(用)(阴)(影)(标)(出)(了)(过)(去)(几)(十)(年)(美)(国)(共)(和)(党)(总)(统)(当)(政)(的)(时)(期)(。看)(得)(出)(来)(,共)(和)(党)(总)(统)(时)(期)(美)(国)(的)(财)(政)(赤)(字)(都)(会)(明)(显)(扩)(张)(。在)(里)(根)(、老)(布)(什)(和)(小)(布)(什)(总)(统)(时)(期)(,财)(政)(赤)(字)(都)(非)(常)(明)(显)(地)(扩)(大)(。而)(财)(政)(赤)(字)(的)(扩)(张)(更)(多)(来)(自)(于)(财)(政)(收)(入)(的)(减)(少)(,也)(就)(是)(减)(税)(。这)(是)(因)(为)(美)(国)(财)(政)(支)(出)(中)(较)(大)(比)(例)(是)(法)(定)(支)(出)(,灵)(活)(性)(不)(是)(特)(别)(强)(。再)(加)(上)(共)(和)(党)(人)(一)(般)(都)(倾)(向)(于)(小)(政)(府)(,对)(政)(府)(扩)(大)(开)(支)(有)(较)(高)(警)(惕)(性)(,所)(以)(基)(本)(上)(每)(任)(共)(和)(党)(总)(统)(的)(宽)(松)(财)(政)(都)(以)(减)(税)(为)(主)(。从)(特)(朗)(普)(现)(在)(传)(出)(的)(政)(策)(信)(号)(来)(看)(,他)(也)(差)(不)(多)(。而)(从)(过)(去)(历)(史)(来)(看)(,美)(国)(每)(任)(共)(和)(党)(总)(统)(时)(期)(,政)(府)(投)(资)(占)(GDP比)(重)(都)(会)(小)(幅)(上)(升)(,但)(上)(升)(幅)(度)(不)(是)(很)(大)(。
而)(如)(果)(观)(察)(美)(国)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(变)(化)(。在)(过)(去)(,共)(和)(党)(总)(统)(任)(期)(内)(美)(国)(联)(邦)(政)(府)(都)(会)(通)(过)(自)(己)(债)(务)(的)(加)(速)(扩)(张)(来)(对)(冲)(民)(间)(债)(务)(增)(速)(的)(下)(滑)(。相)(信)(在)(特)(朗)(普)(任)(内)(也)(会)(如)(此)(,美)(国)(政)(府)(会)(用)(自)(己)(的)(加)(杠)(杆)(来)(带)(动)(经)(济)(。
美)(元)(汇)(率)(短)(期)(还)(会)(持)(续)(上)(升)(
这)(个)(背)(景)(下)(我)(们)(看)(美)(国)(市)(场)(变)(化)(。在)(总)(需)(求)(不)(足)(的)(情)(况)(下)(美)(国)(政)(府)(要)(加)(杠)(杆)(扩)(大)(需)(求)(,自)(然)(会)(让)(经)(济)(状)(况)(有)(所)(改)(善)(。而)(政)(府)(加)(杠)(杆)(也)(能)(扩)(大)(融)(资)(需)(求)(,减)(轻)(过)(剩)(可)(贷)(资)(金)(对)(利)(率)(的)(压)(制)(。于)(是)(,通)(胀)(和)(利)(率)(都)(回)(往)(上)(走)(。在)(特)(朗)(普)(当)(选)(后)(,美)(国)(十)(年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(,以)(及)(美)(国)(通)(胀)(保)(值)(国)(债)((TIPS)收)(益)(率)(所)(隐)(含)(的)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(都)(在)(往)(上)(走)(,显)(示)(投)(资)(者)(已)(经)(开)(始)(预)(期)(美)(国)(通)(胀)(会)(走)(高)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(要)(收)(紧)(。
而)(在)(现)(在)(这)(么)(一)(个)(全)(球)(比)(烂)(的)(经)(济)(环)(境)(中)(,美)(国)(即)(使)(只)(是)(推)(出)(了)(治)(标)(的)(经)(济)(药)(方)(,也)(比)(连)(标)(也)(不)(治)(的)(经)(济)(体)(更)(好)(。所)(以)(,美)(元)(汇)(率)(会)(在)(这)(个)(环)(境)(中)(明)(显)(走)(高)(。在)(期)(货)(市)(场)(中)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(的)(多)(头)(已)(经)(快)(速)(上)(升)(。上)(次)(有)(如)(此)(走)(势)(,还)(是)(在)(2014年)(下)(半)(年)(。那)(时)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(一)(口)(气)(涨)(了)(25%。以)(此)(来)(看)(,明)(年)(美)(元)(指)(数)(将)(明)(显)(高)(于)(今)(年)(的)(水)(平)(。
再)(回)(过)(头)(来)(看)(美)(国)(债)(市)(的)(长)(期)(表)(现)(。美)(国)(债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(从)(里)(根)(时)(期)(的)(沃)(克)(尔)(反)(通)(胀)(开)(始)(,走)(出)(了)(三)(十)(多)(年)(的)(大)(牛)(市)(行)(情)(。特)(朗)(普)(的)(这)(些)(措)(施)(并)(没)(有)(根)(本)(上)(平)(衡)(全)(球)(经)(济)(,没)(有)(从)(根)(本)(上)(缓)(解)(全)(球)(储)(蓄)(过)(剩)(的)(痼)(疾)(,而)(只)(是)(增)(加)(了)(对)(储)(蓄)(的)(需)(求)(。所)(以)(它)(会)(带)(来)(债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(的)(上)(涨)(,但)(是)(还)(谈)(不)(上)(是)(长)(期)(的)(大)(拐)(点)(。长)(期)(来)(看)(,全)(球)(高)(储)(蓄)(率)(对)(全)(球)(资)(本)(回)(报)(率)(,以)(及)(全)(球)(利)(率)(水)(平)(的)(压)(制)(还)(会)(存)(在)(。2017年)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(会)(上)(扬)(,但)(是)(你)(要)(说)(十)(年)(大)(拐)(点)(来)(了)(,现)(在)(还)(得)(不)(出)(这)(样)(的)(结)(论)(。
再)(看)(美)(国)(股)(市)(。里)(根)(的)(当)(政)(开)(启)(了)(美)(国)(二)(十)(年)(的)(股)(市)(牛)(市)(。但)(我)(们)(要)(注)(意)(到)(,在)(里)(根)(之)(前)(,美)(国)(股)(市)(熊)(了)(十)(几)(年)(。里)(根)(之)(前)(的)(股)(市)(熊)(市)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(反)(映)(了)(美)(国)(经)(济)(在)(石)(油)(冲)(击)(之)(后)(陷)(入)(“滞)(胀)(”困)(局)(的)(事)(实)(。而)(里)(根)(通)(过)(宽)(松)(财)(政)(、反)(通)(胀)(的)(措)(施)(带)(领)(美)(国)(彻)(底)(走)(出)(了)(滞)(胀)(,因)(而)(开)(启)(了)(大)(牛)(市)(。前)(面)(已)(经)(分)(析)(过)(,特)(朗)(普)(的)(政)(策)(只)(能)(治)(标)(而)(不)(能)(治)(本)(,因)(而)(很)(难)(像)(里)(根)(那)(样)(彻)(底)(改)(变)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(面)(貌)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,在)(特)(朗)(普)(当)(选)(前)(,美)(国)(股)(市)(在)(极)(度)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(支)(持)(下)(已)(经)(大)(幅)(走)(牛)(,股)(市)(里)(泡)(沫)(成)(分)(不)(小)(。特)(朗)(普)(的)(药)(方)(固)(然)(能)(改)(善)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(状)(况)(,但)(同)(时)(也)(会)(令)(利)(率)(水)(平)(上)(升)(,挤)(出)(股)(市)(的)(泡)(沫)(。在)(这)(两)(方)(面)(因)(素)(的)(影)(响)(下)(,2017年)(美)(国)(股)(市)(不)(太)(可)(能)(是)(大)(牛)(市)(行)(情)(,更)(有)(可)(能)(震)(荡)(。
不)(要)(对)(特)(朗)(普)(治)(下)(的)(美)(国)(经)(济)(抱)(过)(高)(期)(待)(
很)(多)(人)(对)(特)(朗)(普)(当)(选)(以)(后)(美)(国)(的)(经)(济)(前)(景)(抱)(有)(很)(高)(期)(待)(。特)(朗)(普)(会)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(改)(善)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(局)(面)(不)(假)(。但)(我)(们)(看)(一)(下)(历)(史)(。从)(1950年)(到)(现)(在)(,美)(国)(共)(和)(党)(总)(统)(任)(期)(的)(GDP增)(速)(均)(值)(是)(2.81%,而)(民)(主)(党)(总)(统)(时)(期)(的)(均)(值)(是)(3.73%。失)(业)(率)(均)(值)(,共)(和)(党)(总)(统)(时)(期)(是)(5.93%、民)(主)(党)(总)(统)(时)(期)(是)(5.74%。CPI均)(值)(方)(面)(,共)(和)(党)(是)(3.87%,民)(主)(党)(是)(3.18%。
从)(历)(史)(经)(验)(来)(看)(,共)(和)(党)(总)(统)(任)(期)(内)(美)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(一)(般)(会)(低)(一)(些)(,通)(胀)(一)(般)(会)(高)(一)(些)(、股)(价)(一)(般)(会)(涨)(得)(慢)(一)(点)(。当)(然)(,这)(样)(简)(单)(的)(平)(均)(掩)(盖)(了)(不)(同)(时)(期)(的)(巨)(大)(差)(异)(。而)(且)(历)(史)(也)(未)(必)(会)(重)(演)(。但)(回)(顾)(历)(史)(有)(助)(于)(我)(们)(更)(冷)(静)(客)(观)(地)(看)(待)(特)(朗)(普)(任)(下)(的)(美)(国)(经)(济)(前)(景)(。
重)(振)(美)(国)(经)(济)(特)(朗)(普)(离)(不)(开)(中)(国)(
下)(面)(再)(来)(看)(看)(特)(朗)(普)(就)(任)(后)(中)(美)(经)(济)(关)(系)(的)(前)(景)(。这)(必)(须)(要)(从)(美)(国)(经)(常)(账)(户)(的)(赤)(字)(讲)(起)(。从)(1950年)(到)(现)(在)(,美)(国)(在)(共)(和)(党)(总)(统)(任)(期)(内)(一)(般)(都)(会)(有)(看)(到)(贸)(易)(赤)(字)(的)(明)(显)(放)(大)(。里)(根)(和)(小)(布)(什)(时)(期)(尤)(为)(明)(显)(。这)(是)(因)(为)(美)(国)(民)(间)(的)(高)(消)(费)(倾)(向)(长)(期)(持)(续)(,因)(此)(美)(国)(政)(府)(要)(加)(杠)(杆)(,扩)(张)(财)(政)(赤)(字)(,其)(赤)(字)(缺)(口)(就)(需)(要)(从)(国)(际)(资)(本)(市)(场)(借)(入)(资)(本)(来)(弥)(补)(。这)(在)(贸)(易)(项)(下)(就)(会)(带)(来)(贸)(易)(赤)(字)(的)(扩)(张)(。
特)(朗)(普)(要)(让)(美)(国)(再)(次)(变)(得)(伟)(大)(,要)(在)(美)(国)(大)(规)(模)(减)(税)(,要)(在)(美)(国)(大)(搞)(建)(设)(。一)(个)(核)(心)(的)(问)(题)(是)(,他)(的)(资)(源)(从)(哪)(里)(来)(?你)(不)(能)(既)(吃)(掉)(一)(个)(蛋)(糕)(,又)(把)(它)(保)(留)(下)(来)(。特)(朗)(普)(减)(税)(对)(美)(国)(消)(费)(显)(然)(是)(正)(面)(的)(。而)(他)(又)(要)(扩)(大)(美)(国)(的)(投)(资)(。这)(样)(,美)(国)(的)(内)(需)(会)(变)(得)(比)(以)(前)(更)(大)(。而)(在)(以)(前)(美)(国)(都)(处)(在)(内)(需)(大)(于)(国)(内)(收)(入)(,因)(而)(需)(要)(通)(过)(贸)(易)(赤)(字)(从)(全)(球)(借)(入)(资)(本)(。现)(在)(美)(国)(内)(需)(变)(得)(更)(大)(,必)(然)(需)(要)(从)(全)(球)(借)(入)(更)(多)(资)(本)(。只)(有)(有)(贸)(易)(盈)(余)(的)(国)(家)(能)(够)(有)(富)(余)(资)(本)(借)(给)(美)(国)(。
看)(现)(在)(美)(国)(贸)(易)(赤)(字)(的)(国)(别)(划)(分)(。最)(多)(的)(是)(中)(国)(,第)(二)(是)(所)(有)(OECD国)(家)(加)(起)(来)(。美)(国)(过)(去)(对)(石)(油)(输)(出)(国)(有)(大)(量)(贸)(易)(赤)(字)(,而)(现)(在)(这)(部)(分)(赤)(字)(已)(经)(归)(零)(。因)(此)(,从)(全)(球)(贸)(易)(平)(衡)(的)(角)(度)(来)(看)(,美)(国)(贸)(易)(赤)(字)(的)(扩)(张)(能)(够)(来)(自)(哪)(里)(?很)(显)(然)(,主)(要)(应)(该)(是)(中)(国)(。中)(国)(近)(一)(段)(时)(间)(持)(有)(美)(国)(国)(债)(规)(模)(下)(降)(,核)(心)(原)(因)(是)(我)(们)(对)(外)(净)(资)(产)(分)(布)(发)(生)(变)(化)(。之)(前)(我)(们)(是)(外)(汇)(国)(家)(拿)(着)(,变)(成)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(,跑)(去)(买)(美)(国)(国)(债)(。现)(在)(因)(为)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(,民)(间)(开)(始)(积)(极)(把)(人)(民)(币)(换)(成)(美)(元)(。但)(换)(了)(之)(后)(还)(是)(要)(主)(要)(到)(美)(国)(去)(买)(资)(产)(。换)(言)(之)(,钱)(还)(是)(继)(续)(借)(给)(了)(美)(国)(,只)(不)(过)(换)(了)(种)(资)(产)(方)(式)(而)(已)(。
所)(以)(,特)(朗)(普)(要)(让)(美)(国)(重)(新)(变)(得)(强)(大)(需)(要)(资)(本)(。而)(这)(个)(资)(本)(应)(该)(主)(要)(来)(自)(中)(国)(。如)(果)(特)(朗)(普)(大)(打)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(主)(义)(的)(牌)(,限)(制)(中)(国)(产)(品)(的)(输)(入)(,那)(么)(他)(的)(积)(极)(财)(政)(就)(必)(然)(会)(导)(致)(美)(国)(民)(间)(消)(费)(或)(投)(资)(的)(下)(降)(,形)(成)(财)(政)(对)(民)(间)(支)(出)(的)(挤)(出)(。那)(样)(的)(话)(,美)(国)(民)(众)(的)(福)(利)(会)(明)(显)(下)(降)(,他)(的)(让)(美)(国)(重)(新)(强)(大)(的)(初)(衷)(就)(实)(现)(不)(了)(。
所)(以)(,虽)(然)(特)(朗)(普)(对)(中)(国)(放)(了)(很)(多)(狠)(话)(,但)(是)(他)(离)(不)(开)(中)(国)(。没)(有)(中)(国)(的)(支)(持)(,他)(让)(美)(国)(重)(新)(变)(得)(伟)(大)(这)(个)(事)(情)(很)(难)(做)(成)(。
整)(体)(来)(说)(,特)(朗)(普)(当)(选)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(偏)(正)(面)(。美)(国)(的)(再)(度)(加)(杠)(杆)(能)(够)(给)(中)(国)(富)(余)(储)(蓄)(找)(到)(出)(路)(。全)(球)(总)(需)(求)(不)(足)(状)(况)(会)(因)(此)(改)(善)(。未)(来)(,中)(美)(之)(间)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(估)(计)(少)(不)(了)(,但)(大)(的)(贸)(易)(战)(打)(不)(起)(来)(。要)(真)(打)(起)(来)(,也)(是)(两)(败)(俱)(伤)(,美)(国)(的)(承)(受)(力)(还)(比)(不)(上)(中)(国)(。
此)(外)(,特)(朗)(普)(当)(选)(带)(来)(的)(外)(部)(不)(确)(定)(性)(会)(导)(致)(我)(国)(国)(内)(稳)(增)(长)(政)(策)(推)(进)(得)(更)(加)(积)(极)(。展)(望)(明)(年)(,我)(国)(GDP增)(长)(稳)(在)(6.5%以)(上)(没)(有)(太)(大)(问)(题)(。
在)(美)(元)(升)(值)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,人)(民)(币)(兑)(美)(元)(表)(现)(出)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(很)(正)(常)(。此)(外)(,考)(虑)(到)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(临)(近)(,且)(特)(朗)(普)(即)(将)(宣)(誓)(就)(职)(。在)(今)(年)(剩)(下)(的)(日)(子)(里)(,是)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(的)(一)(个)(窗)(口)(期)(。这)(时)(策)(略)(性)(地)(加)(快)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(步)(伐)(也)(有)(其)(道)(理)(。贬)(得)(多)(了)(,理)(论)(上)(来)(说)(人)(民)(币)(距)(离)(均)(衡)(汇)(率)(也)(更)(近)(,跟)(特)(朗)(普)(讨)(价)(还)(价)(的)(时)(候)(也)(有)(更)(多)(筹)(码)(。
但)(要)(强)(调)(的)(是)(,现)(在)(这)(种)(贬)(值)(是)(我)(们)(主)(动)(调)(控)(的)(有)(序)(贬)(值)(,跟)(2015年)(底)(那)(种)(近)(乎)(崩)(盘)(的)(无)(序)(贬)(值)(是)(完)(全)(不)(一)(样)(的)(。
(本)(文)(根)(据)(北)(大)(国)(发)(院)(论)(坛)(上)(徐)(高)(的)(演)(讲)(整)(理)(,经)(作)(者)(审)(定)(后)(授)(权)(观)(察)(者)(网)(发)(布)(。)
人)(物)(简)(介)(
徐)(高)(
北)(大)(国)(发)(院)(兼)(职)(研)(究)(员)(、光)(大)(证)(券)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(。加)(入)(光)(大)(证)(券)(前)(,他)(曾)(任)(瑞)(银)(证)(券)(高)(级)(经)(济)(学)(家)(、世)(界)(银)(行)(经)(济)(学)(家)(、国)(际)(货)(币)(基)(金)(组)(织)(兼)(职)(经)(济)(学)(家)(及)(研)(究)(助)(理)(等)(职)(。他)(目)(前)(还)(是)(中)(国)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(论)(坛)(理)(事)(,以)(及)(世)(界)(银)(行)(顾)(问)(。他)(拥)(有)(北)(京)(大)(学)(国)(家)(发)(展)(研)(究)(院)(颁)(发)(的)(经)(济)(学)(博)(士)(学)(位)(,以)(及)(西)(南)(交)(通)(大)(学)(颁)(发)(的)(工)(学)(硕)(士)(、学)(士)(学)(位)(。
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