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投资机会在哪里?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月25日 21:28:41
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(未)(来)(会)(维)(持)(这)(个)(新)(生)(婴)(儿)(数)(量)(吗)(?新)(生)(儿)(出)(生)(的)(预)(测)(也)(较)(为)(确)(定)(。主)(要)(是)(依)(赖)(于)(27岁)(女)(性)(以)(及)(二)(胎)(生)(育)(情)(况)(。从)(2018年)(开)(始)(,27岁)(女)(性)(数)(量)(开)(始)(迅)(速)(减)(少)(。即)(使)(考)(虑)(到)(二)(胎)(。到)(2023年)(以)(后)(,乐)(观)(来)(看)(,新)(生)(儿)(出)(生)(估)(计)(只)(有)(目)(前)(的)(一)(半)(,能)(达)(到)(每)(年)(700-800万)(就)(算)(乐)(观)(。这)(种)(情)(况)(下)(,关)(于)(新)(生)(儿)(相)(关)(的)(产)(业)(竞)(争)(将)(越)(来)(越)(激)(烈)(。
另)(外)(一)(个)(不)(乐)(观)(的)(点)(是)(,由)(于)(中)(国)(之)(前)(的)(独)(生)(子)(女)(政)(策)(,90年)(后)(新)(生)(儿)(的)(性)(别)(比)(急)(剧)(攀)(升)(,特)(别)(是)(农)(村)(地)(区)(,以)(及)(河)(南)(和)(湖)(北)(等)(地)(,有)(相)(当)(部)(分)(男)(性)(将)(无)(法)(婚)(育)(,女)(性)(地)(位)(提)(高)(同)(时)(有)(份)(工)(作)(的)(话)(,也)(会)(导)(致)(女)(性)(结)(婚)(和)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(降)(低)(。
K12教)(育)(呢)(?目)(前)(A港)(美)(股)(上)(市)(了)(国)(内)(大)(批)(教)(育)(类)(公)(司)(,这)(些)(公)(司)(业)(绩)(都)(很)(好)(。大)(部)(分)(的)(教)(育)(培)(训)(都)(针)(对)(18岁)(前)(,特)(别)(是)(15岁)(前)(的)(学)(生)(。而)(这)(个)(客)(户)(群)(数)(量)(未)(来)(几)(年)(是)(稳)(定)(的)(。但)(是)(,由)(于)(中)(国)(目)(前)(的)(教)(育)(政)(策)(是)(通)(过)(中)(考)(分)(数)(将)(学)(生)(分)(级)(,略)(多)(一)(半)(上)(高)(中)(,将)(来)(大)(部)(分)(考)(上)(大)(学)(做)(白)(领)(,而)(剩)(下)(去)(职)(业)(学)(校)(培)(训)(三)(年)(后)(做)(蓝)(领)(。站)(在)(博)(弈)(论)(的)(角)(度)(,无)(论)(家)(庭)(投)(入)(还)(是)(不)(投)(入)(教)(育)(培)(训)(,能)(考)(上)(高)(中)(的)(也)(只)(有)(一)(半)(多)(一)(点)(,这)(个)(是)(比)(例)(,而)(不)(是)(绝)(对)(数)(。白)(领)(家)(庭)(为)(了)(维)(持)(孩)(子)(也)(是)(白)(领)(,而)(蓝)(领)(家)(庭)(希)(望)(孩)(子)(晋)(升)(为)(白)(领)(。因)(此)(,无)(论)(政)(府)(出)(什)(么)(政)(策)(为)(青)(少)(年)(学)(生)(减)(负)(都)(没)(有)(用)(,为)(了)(赢)(在)(起)(跑)(线)(,为)(了)(必)(须)(排)(在)(前)(50%以)(及)(上)(名)(校)(,家)(长)(必)(须)(不)(计)(一)(切)(的)(投)(入)(教)(育)(直)(到)(大)(部)(分)(学)(生)(业)(余)(时)(间)(全)(部)(被)(培)(训)(消)(耗)(掉)(。所)(以)(,尽)(管)(总)(K12人)(数)(不)(增)(长)(,但)(中)(短)(期)(培)(训)(教)(育)(的)(学)(费)(和)(学)(习)(时)(间)(还)(有)(提)(升)(空)(间)(,教)(育)(行)(业)(未)(来)(处)(于)(成)(熟)(增)(长)(阶)(段)(,这)(种)(情)(况)(下)(,很)(难)(继)(续)(出)(现)(教)(育)(培)(训)(黑)(马)(,应)(该)(是)(强)(者)(恒)(强)(。等)(到)(2028年)(以)(后)(的)(十)(年)(,则)(是)(教)(育)(培)(训)(行)(业)(的)(萧)(条)(阶)(段)(,一)(方)(面)(学)(生)(人)(数)(急)(剧)(下)(降)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(,2020年)(代)(应)(该)(会)(有)(大)(的)(教)(育)(改)(革)(,否)(则)(如)(果)(还)(是)(按)(照)(目)(前)(一)(半)(对)(一)(半)(中)(考)(分)(类)(情)(况)(,大)(学)(招)(生)(人)(数)(则)(会)(出)(现)(严)(重)(下)(降)(。
1987年)(后)(,新)(生)(儿)(数)(量)(开)(始)(迅)(速)(下)(降)(,考)(虑)(到)(结)(婚)(年)(龄)(,对)(应)(到)(现)(在)(,婚)(庆)(行)(业)(未)(来)(几)(年)(逐)(渐)(处)(于)(萧)(条)(期)(,直)(到)(2026年)(之)(后)(才)(开)(始)(稳)(定)(下)(来)(。同)(时)(,2016-2017年)(的)(房)(地)(产)(高)(峰)(后)(,从)(人)(口)(上)(来)(看)(,中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(刚)(需)(销)(售)(的)(高)(峰)(期)(已)(经)(过)(了)(,并)(会)(迅)(速)(下)(行)(,未)(来)(几)(年)(,地)(产)(产)(业)(链)(,比)(如)(家)(具)(行)(业)(等)(会)(迎)(来)(一)(次)(产)(业)(洗)(牌)(。
18-22岁)(上)(大)(学)(。现)(在)(每)(年)(应)(届)(毕)(业)(生)(是)(700多)(万)(人)(,且)(仍)(然)(在)(逐)(渐)(增)(加)(中)(。陆)(宝)(研)(究)(员)(认)(为)(目)(前)(国)(内)(每)(年)(IT行)(业)(就)(可)(以)(吸)(纳)(200-300万)(人)(就)(业)(,基)(本)(上)(只)(要)(接)(受)(工)(资)(稍)(微)(低)(一)(点)(,学)(了)(IT是)(不)(存)(在)(找)(不)(到)(工)(作)(的)(。
经)(济)(学)(家)(一)(度)(担)(心)(中)(国)(陷)(入)(“中)(等)(国)(家)(陷)(阱)(”。落)(入)(陷)(阱)(的)(核)(心)(在)(于)(产)(业)(无)(法)(升)(级)(,无)(法)(攫)(取)(高)(端)(产)(业)(利)(润)(。能)(够)(跨)(过)(中)(等)(国)(家)(陷)(阱)(的)(国)(家)(非)(常)(少)(,而)(跨)(过)(的)(一)(个)(很)(重)(要)(的)(必)(要)(条)(件)(是)(重)(视)(高)(等)(教)(育)(。拉)(美)(和)(东)(南)(亚)(无)(法)(跨)(过)(,主)(要)(是)(受)(到)(高)(等)(教)(育)(的)(人)(过)(少)(,无)(法)(进)(行)(产)(业)(升)(级)(。而)(韩)(国)(,我)(国)(台)(湾)(,高)(等)(教)(育)(普)(及)(率)(在)(发)(展)(中)(迅)(速)(提)(高)(。有)(研)(究)(认)(为)(受)(到)(高)(等)(教)(育)(的)(人)(口)(超)(过)(10%,产)(业)(才)(能)(升)(级)(,由)(于)(中)(国)(人)(口)(基)(数)(大)(,1998年)(之)(前)(受)(到)(高)(等)(教)(育)(的)(人)(口)(非)(常)(少)(,之)(后)(大)(学)(扩)(招)(。这)(几)(年)(是)(中)(国)(处)(于)(产)(业)(升)(级)(的)(关)(键)(时)(期)((高)(等)(教)(育)(人)(口)(开)(始)(达)(到)(10%,有)(抽)(样)(调)(研)(数)(据)(显)(示)(2010年)(中)(国)(受)(到)(高)(等)(教)(育)(的)(人)(口)(已)(经)(超)(过)(12%,我)(认)(为)(可)(能)(是)(算)(上)(函)(授)(电)(大)(等)(),未)(来)(几)(年)(产)(业)(升)(级)(是)(个)(很)(好)(的)(投)(资)(机)(会)(。再)(过)(20年)(,4-5个)(中)(国)(人)(中)(就)(有)(一)(个)(大)(学)(生)(。
目)(前)(美)(国)(每)(年)(大)(概)(毕)(业)(300万)(大)(学)(生)((美)(国)(有)(一)(半)(人)(受)(过)(高)(等)(教)(育)(),每)(年)(大)(概)(毕)(业)(100万)(研)(究)(生)(。在)(高)(素)(质)(人)(才)(储)(备)(上)(远)(超)(其)(他)(国)(家)(,这)(也)(主)(要)(得)(益)(于)(其)(研)(究)(生)(面)(向)(全)(球)(招)(生)(。目)(前)(,中)(国)(研)(究)(生)((加)(在)(职)()毕)(业)(接)(近)(70万)(,一)(半)(是)(理)(工)(科)(专)(业)(,未)(来)(10年)(每)(年)(能)(到)(100万)(,跟)(美)(国)(接)(近)(,每)(年)(有)(40-50万)(理)(工)(研)(究)(生)(毕)(业)(,加)(上)(部)(分)(高)(素)(质)(的)(理)(工)(科)(大)(学)(生)(,中)(国)(产)(业)(和)(技)(术)(升)(级)(还)(是)(很)(乐)(观)(的)(一)(个)(投)(资)(机)(会)(。未)(来)(十)(年)(在)(高)(科)(技)(上)(超)(越)(美)(国)(比)(较)(难)(,但)(是)(在)(高)(科)(技)(份)(额)(上)(会)(增)(加)(很)(多)(,如)(果)(中)(国)(举)(国)(之)(力)(去)(支)(持)(2025国)(家)(战)(略)(目)(标)(,很)(大)(可)(能)(是)(中)(国)(跨)(越)(中)(等)(国)(家)(陷)(阱)(,而)(目)(前)(的)(贸)(易)(战)(,算)(是)(美)(国)(对)(中)(国)(的)(狙)(击)(。只)(要)(中)(国)(国)(内)(政)(治)(稳)(定)(,国)(土)(安)(全)(,同)(时)(遏)(制)(住)(资)(产)(泡)(沫)((只)(要)(有)(泡)(沫)(就)(能)(轻)(松)(赚)(钱)(,企)(业)(家)(就)(没)(有)(动)(力)(踏)(踏)(实)(实)(技)(术)(升)(级)(),国)(家)(的)(战)(略)(目)(标)(应)(该)(能)(够)(实)(现)(。
广)(东)(过)(去)(几)(年)(在)(产)(业)(升)(级)(上)(做)(了)(很)(大)(努)(力)(。参)(考)(抚)(养)(比)(,人)(口)(流)(入)(以)(及)(出)(生)(率)(等)(指)(标)(,全)(国)(各)(省)(市)(中)(,广)(东)(仍)(然)(是)(最)(有)(经)(济)(活)(力)(的)((其)(中)(深)(圳)(和)(东)(莞)(是)(火)(车)(头)()。北)(京)(上)(海)(都)(已)(经)(老)(龄)(化)(,但)(是)(抚)(养)(压)(力)(都)(不)(大)(,主)(要)(归)(功)(于)(大)(学)(毕)(业)(带)(来)(的)(人)(口)(流)(入)(。浙)(江)(,江)(苏)(和)(福)(建)(也)(还)(好)(,主)(要)(归)(功)(于)(人)(口)(的)(正)(流)(入)(。这)(导)(致)(马)(太)(效)(应)(,经)(济)(大)(省)(市)(未)(来)(仍)(然)(是)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(火)(车)(头)(。优)(秀)(的)(公)(司)(也)(都)(集)(中)(于)(此)(。
由)(于)(90后)(人)(口)(数)(只)(有)(80后)(的)(60%,且)(1996年)(后)(新)(生)(儿)(数)(量)(快)(速)(下)(降)((目)(前)(22岁)(),而)(年)(轻)(人)(代)(表)(了)(经)(济)(活)(力)(。因)(此)(,从)(今)(年)(开)(始)(,核)(心)(城)(市)(争)(夺)(年)(轻)(人)(口)(会)(越)(来)(越)(激)(烈)((中)(西)(部)(核)(心)(城)(市)(还)(有)(要)(承)(接)(产)(业)(转)(移)(的)(竞)(争)()。如)(果)(北)(上)(广)(深)(维)(持)(不)(变)(的)(吸)(引)(力)(,大)(城)(市)(打)(8折)(,中)(等)(城)(市)(打)(6折)(维)(持)(,那)(么)(小)(城)(市)(,县)(城)(和)(农)(村)(将)(很)(难)(看)(到)(年)(轻)(人)(。年)(轻)(人)(口)(将)(越)(来)(越)(集)(中)(于)(大)(城)(市)(,有)(利)(于)(消)(费)(和)(服)(务)(的)(增)(加)(。
毕)(业)(以)(后)(要)(工)(作)(。中)(国)(工)(业)(就)(业)(人)(口)(自)(从)(2012年)(后)(逐)(渐)(开)(始)(缓)(慢)(下)(降)(,但)(是)(目)(前)(还)(有)(2.235亿)(人)((民)(营)(企)(业)(创)(造)(一)(半)(的)(就)(业)(,外)(企)(创)(造)(30%的)(就)(业)(,国)(企)(20%)。这)(个)(规)(模)(接)(近)(日)(、德)(、韩)(的)(总)(人)(口)(,也)(比)(美)(国)(非)(农)(就)(业)(人)(口)((1.5亿)()多)(很)(多)(,同)(时)(跟)(美)(国)(物)(品)(生)(产)(部)(门)(就)(业)(人)(数)(2000万)(人)(来)(比)(,也)(差)(一)(个)(数)(量)(级)(。工)(业)(人)(口)(预)(示)(了)(中)(国)(庞)(大)(的)(工)(业)(产)(能)(,这)(需)(要)(巨)(量)(的)(世)(界)(市)(场)(,才)(能)(把)(这)(个)(工)(业)(产)(能)(喂)(饱)(。而)(这)(个)(产)(能)(很)(多)(是)(低)(端)(且)(过)(剩)(的)(。所)(以)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(,同)(时)(产)(业)(升)(级)(是)(非)(常)(正)(确)(的)(策)(略)(。工)(业)(就)(业)(人)(口)(下)(降)(寄)(希)(望)(生)(产)(率)(提)(高)(。中)(国)(的)(高)(等)(教)(育)(支)(持)(这)(个)(生)(产)(率)(提)(高)((尽)(管)(很)(多)(人)(对)(于)(中)(国)(的)(教)(育)(有)(很)(多)(诟)(病)()。
由)(于)(60、70年)(代)(出)(生)(的)(人)(小)(学)(和)(初)(中)(学)(历)(比)(较)(多)(,多)(数)(从)(事)(低)(薪)(酬)(工)(作)(。而)(90后)(中)(则)(大)(部)(分)(为)(高)(中)(大)(学)(学)(历)(。基)(础)(的)(体)(力)(劳)(动)(工)(作)((比)(如)(在)(建)(筑)(工)(地)()人)(口)(将)(越)(来)(越)(少)(,供)(求)(发)(生)(变)(化)(后)(,要)(么)(升)(级)(不)(成)(行)(业)(萧)(条)(,要)(么)(工)(资)(自)(然)(上)(涨)(,增)(加)(消)(费)(。由)(于)(中)(国)(地)(区)(等)(因)(素)(差)(异)(较)(大)(,在)(研)(究)(消)(费)(上)(,不)(同)(的)(消)(费)(需)(要)(考)(虑)(不)(同)(的)(人)(群)(受)(众)(规)(模)(。
2017年)(大)(概)(有)(8亿)(城)(镇)(居)(民)(,2020年)(能)(接)(近)(9亿)(。单)(独)(看)(8亿)(城)(镇)(居)(民)(,可)(以)(发)(现)(,中)(位)(数)(的)(人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(为)(31550元)(,对)(应)(5000美)(元)(。根)(据)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(数)(据)(,2016年)(占)(城)(镇)(居)(民)(40%的)(中)(等)(偏)(上)(收)(入)(和)(高)(收)(入)(群)(体)((3.16亿)(人)(口)()的)(人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(为)(8450美)(元)(左)(右)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,中)(国)(已)(经)(隐)(约)(出)(现)(了)(3亿)(人)(的)(一)(个)(群)(体)(,人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(已)(经)(达)(到)(韩)(国)(人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(的)(72%,日)(本)(人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(的)(60%。而)(2016年)(,日)(韩)(总)(人)(口)(才)(1.78亿)(。
我)(们)(研)(究)(员)(参)(考)(各)(种)(统)(计)(数)(据)(和)(资)(料)(写)(的)(报)(告)(有)(个)(结)(论)(是)(:中)(国)(人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(7.62万)(元)(以)(上)(的)(属)(于)(富)(裕)(人)(群)(,大)(概)(5600万)(人)(。在)(人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(3.58-7.62万)(元)(之)(间)(的)(,属)(于)(中)(产)(,目)(前)(3.15亿)(人)(。处)(于)(中)(产)(门)(口)(的)(,人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(在)(1.3-3.58万)(元)(,有)(7亿)(人)(。贫)(困)(人)(口)(还)(有)(3亿)(人)(,主)(要)(生)(活)(在)(中)(西)(部)(农)(村)(。
未)(来)(10年)(每)(年)(大)(学)(毕)(业)(生)(每)(年)(800万)(人)(,中)(职)(学)(生)(也)(差)(不)(多)(800万)(人)(投)(入)(就)(业)(市)(场)(。蓝)(领)(工)(人)(人)(数)(下)(降)(导)(致)(工)(资)(提)(升)(,而)(大)(学)(生)(则)(对)(未)(来)(充)(满)(希)(望)(。我)(看)(到)(的)(一)(个)(报)(道)(是)(河)(北)(省)(石)(家)(庄)(市)(一)(名)(女)(会)(计)(专)(业)(大)(专)(毕)(业)(生)(今)(年)(找)(工)(作)(,宁)(愿)(选)(择)(2500元)(一)(个)(月)(的)(小)(企)(业)(会)(计)(岗)(位)(,也)(不)(愿)(意)(接)(受)(月)(薪)(5000元)(以)(上)(的)(劳)(务)(工)(作)((如)(保)(姆)()。因)(为)(她)(认)(为)(:劳)(务)(是)(一)(个)(工)(作)(,但)(是)(会)(计)(是)(个)(职)(业)(。
男)(女)(比)(例)(失)(调)(,以)(及)(女)(性)(经)(济)(地)(位)(提)(高)(,也)(导)(致)(中)(国)(2016年)(单)(身)(人)(口)(规)(模)(达)(到)(2.4亿)(。单)(身)(族)(的)(消)(费)(结)(构)(与)(传)(统)(家)(庭)(消)(费)(结)(构)(不)(同)(,总)(体)(上)(说)(,单)(身)(人)(群)(储)(蓄)(倾)(向)(低)(于)(非)(单)(身)(人)(群)(,而)(消)(费)(倾)(向)(却)(远)(高)(于)(非)(单)(身)(人)(群)(。
各)(种)(消)(费)(和)(服)(务)(,都)(可)(以)(在)(中)(国)(找)(到)(受)(众)(人)(群)(。如)(果)(产)(业)(升)(级)(伴)(随)(收)(入)(提)(高)(的)(话)(,未)(来)(10年)(是)(一)(个)(消)(费)(和)(服)(务)(的)(黄)(金)(时)(代)(。
30多)(岁)(会)(有)(理)(财)(投)(资)(需)(求)(,考)(虑)(到)(1987年)(前)(后)(的)(婴)(儿)(潮)(高)(峰)(,未)(来)(几)(年)((估)(计)(2020年)(后)()证)(券)(市)(场)(仍)(然)(有)(一)(波)(被)(80后)(和)(90后)(投)(资)(的)(热)(潮)(,然)(后)(可)(能)(才)(会)(归)(于)(长)(期)(的)(理)(性)(投)(资)(,只)(是)(现)(在)(不)(确)(定)(2016-2017年)(的)(房)(地)(产)(按)(揭)(压)(力)(是)(否)(会)(拖)(延)(还)(是)(加)(速)(这)(个)(趋)(势)(。
现)(在)(很)(多)(经)(济)(学)(家)(担)(心)(的)(是)(中)(国)(未)(富)(先)(老)(进)(入)(老)(龄)(化)(社)(会)(。从)(数)(据)(和)(推)(测)(来)(看)(,未)(来)(十)(几)(年)(,中)(国)(的)(抚)(养)(比)(会)(逐)(渐)(上)(升)(,养)(老)(压)(力)(一)(直)(会)(很)(大)(,40多)(岁)(是)(个)(悲)(催)(的)(年)(龄)(,上)(有)(老)(,下)(有)(小)(,身)(体)(变)(差)(,对)(未)(来)(迷)(茫)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,精)(神)(文)(化)(消)(费)(会)(兴)(起)(。
2015年)(60岁)(及)(以)(上)(人)(口)(2.22亿)(,占)(总)(人)(口)(的)(16.15%。预)(计)(到)(2020年)(,老)(年)(人)(口)(达)(到)(2.48亿)(,老)(龄)(化)(水)(平)(达)(到)(17.17%,其)(中)(80岁)(以)(上)(老)(年)(人)(口)(将)(达)(到)(3067万)(人)(;2025年)(,六)(十)(岁)(以)(上)(人)(口)(将)(达)(到)(3亿)(。未)(来)(十)(年)(最)(确)(定)(的)(是)(:中)(国)(老)(年)(人)(口)(数)(量)(会)(有)(大)(的)(提)(升)(,而)(他)(们)(的)(需)(求)(没)(有)(被)(满)(足)(。
目)(前)(退)(休)(人)(口)(总)(数)(在)(统)(计)(上)(,偏)(差)(不)(大)(。但)(是)(在)(健)(康)(统)(计)(上)(有)(很)(大)(偏)(差)(。我)(看)(到)(上)(海)(的)(数)(据)(是)(,上)(海)(老)(人)(,40%属)(于)(健)(康)(,42%属)(于)(基)(本)(健)(康)(,这)(能)(和)(旅)(游)(数)(据)(对)(应)(,上)(海)(老)(年)(人)(中)(78%每)(年)(都)(要)(旅)(行)(。而)(世)(界)(卫)(生)(组)(织)(估)(计)(33.2%的)(中)(国)(老)(人)(需)(要)(日)(常)(照)(护)(,这)(个)(比)(例)(有)(点)(高)(。中)(国)(老)(年)(人)(高)(血)(压)(患)(病)(率)(66.9%,远)(高)(于)(其)(它)(慢)(性)(病)(患)(病)(率)(,关)(节)(炎)(、糖)(尿)(病)(、慢)(性)(阻)(塞)(性)(肺)(炎)(、哮)(喘)(、心)(肌)(梗)(塞)(等)(也)(是)(常)(见)(的)(慢)(性)(疾)(病)(。
可)(以)(看)(出)(,增)(量)(需)(求)(在)(于)(老)(年)(人)(退)(休)(后)(的)(旅)(游)(,以)(及)(医)(疗)(保)(健)(的)(需)(求)(,且)(这)(个)(需)(求)(的)(确)(定)(性)(大)(幅)(增)(加)(。这)(部)(分)(,可)(以)(参)(考)(1995年)(后)(日)(本)(老)(年)(人)(的)(消)(费)(习)(惯)(,当)(下)(的)(中)(国)(人)(口)(结)(构)(和)(日)(本)(当)(时)(类)(似)(,这)(也)(给)(我)(们)(提)(供)(了)(很)(多)(未)(来)(发)(展)(方)(向)(的)(参)(考)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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