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荀玉根:创业板估值到底贵不贵?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年12月09日 04:33:41
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(2.对)(比)(价)(值)(和)(海)(外)(横)(看)(估)(值)(:溢)(价)(在)(低)(位)(
纵)(向)(衡)(量)(成)(长)(股)(绝)(对)(估)(值)(水)(平)(后)(,我)(们)(再)(从)(相)(对)(估)(值)(角)(度)(出)(发)(横)(向)(比)(较)(成)(长)(估)(值)(贵)(与)(否)(。传)(统)(的)(方)(式)(多)(从)(价)(值)(/成)(长)(市)(场)(风)(格)(角)(度)(看)(成)(长)(溢)(价)(,陆)(港)(通)(全)(面)(开)(通)(后)(消)(费)(白)(马)(股)(的)(估)(值)(国)(际)(对)(标)(是)(其)(过)(去)(两)(年)(估)(值)(提)(升)(的)(动)(力)(之)(一)(,随)(着)(A股)(市)(场)(逐)(渐)(开)(放)(,成)(长)(股)(同)(样)(面)(临)(估)(值)(国)(际)(对)(标)(问)(题)(。
创)(业)(板)(较)(价)(值)(股)(相)(对)(估)(值)(溢)(价)(处)(于)(历)(史)(40%分)(位)(左)(右)(。首)(先)(从)(价)(值)(成)(长)(风)(格)(看)(,A股)(价)(值)(成)(长)((价)(值)(指)(数)(:上)(证)(50VS成)(长)(指)(数)(:创)(业)(板)(指)()轮)(换)(周)(期)(一)(般)(是)(2-3年)(,最)(近)(一)(轮)(价)(值)(风)(格)(从)(2016年)(7月)(开)(始)(一)(直)(持)(续)(到)(2018年)(2月)(,期)(间)(上)(证)(50累)(计)(收)(益)(率)(32.1%,创)(业)(板)(指)(累)(计)(收)(益)(率)(-28.0%,2月)(以)(来)(以)(创)(业)(板)(指)(为)(代)(表)(的)(成)(长)(板)(块)(持)(续)(占)(优)(。我)(们)(以)(创)(业)(板)(指)(-上)(证)(50PE(TTM)、中)(小)(板)(指)(-上)(证)(50PE(TTM)作)(为)(成)(长)(相)(对)(价)(值)(溢)(价)(指)(标)(,创)(业)(板)(指)(-上)(证)(50PE从)(15年)(6月)(初)(的)(122.1倍)(开)(始)(持)(续)(降)(至)(18年)(2月)(初)(的)(23.7倍)(,其)(后)(开)(始)(上)(升)(至)(目)(前)(的)(34.3倍)(,低)(于)(2010年)(8月)(以)(来)(的)(均)(值)(42.9倍)(,处)(于)(历)(史)(从)(低)(到)(高)(38.9%分)(位)(。中)(小)(板)(指)(-上)(证)(50PE从)(15年)(6月)(初)(的)(50.1倍)(开)(始)(持)(续)(降)(至)(18年)(2月)(初)(的)(17.5倍)(,其)(后)(开)(始)(上)(升)(至)(目)(前)(的)(19.8倍)(,基)(本)(接)(近)(2006年)(以)(来)(的)(均)(值)(19.8倍)(,处)(于)(历)(史)(从)(低)(到)(高)(45.2%分)(位)(。
创)(业)(板)(指)(较)(海)(外)(成)(长)(股)(估)(值)(溢)(价)(处)(于)(历)(史)(18-25%分)(位)(。2010年)(前)(后)(中)(国)(跟)(随)(美)(国)(进)(入)(全)(球)(智)(能)(手)(机)(产)(业)(链)(,在)(同)(一)(技)(术)(周)(期)(下)(出)(现)(了)(三)(类)(典)(型)(的)(科)(技)(公)(司)(:以)(创)(业)(板)(为)(代)(表)(的)(A股)(科)(技)(股)(、以)(恒)(生)(资)(讯)(科)(技)(股)(为)(代)(表)(的)(海)(外)(上)(市)(中)(资)(科)(技)(股)(以)(及)(以)(纳)(斯)(达)(克)(100为)(代)(表)(的)(美)(股)(科)(技)(股)(。我)(们)(在)(前)(期)(报)(告)(《科)(技)(股)(:为)(何)(海)(内)(外)(大)(相)(径)(庭)(-A股)(国)(际)(化)(系)(列)(6-20170905》研)(究)(过)(中)(美)(科)(技)(股)(从)(联)(动)(趋)(同)(到)(分)(道)(扬)(镳)(。从)(指)(数)(表)(现)(看)(2010年)(-16年)(三)(类)(科)(技)(股)(指)(数)(走)(势)(基)(本)(保)(持)(一)(致)(,16年)(之)(后)(恒)(生)(资)(讯)(科)(技)(股)(、美)(股)(纳)(斯)(达)(克)(100分)(别)(跟)(随)(港)(股)(、美)(股)(走)(牛)(,创)(业)(板)(指)(持)(续)(走)(熊)(。造)(成)(这)(一)(分)(化)(的)(核)(心)(原)(因)(是)(业)(绩)(,A股)(创)(业)(板)(指)(累)(计)(净)(利)(润)(同)(比)(增)(速)(从)(16Q1的)(77.1%降)(至)(17Q4的)(-39.8%,恒)(生)(资)(讯)(科)(技)(股)(累)(计)(净)(利)(润)(同)(比)(增)(速)(在)(16Q4的)(14.3%触)(底)(后)(反)(弹)(至)(17Q4的)(90.9%,纳)(斯)(达)(克)(100累)(计)(净)(利)(润)(同)(比)(增)(速)(从)(16Q3的)(1.78%反)(弹)(至)(17Q4的)(18.24%。最)(新)(公)(布)(的)(创)(业)(板)(指)(18Q1累)(计)(净)(利)(润)(同)(比)(增)(速)(33.7%较)(去)(年)(年)(报)(大)(幅)(回)(升)(,随)(着)(A股)(市)(场)(逐)(渐)(开)(放)(,有)(必)(要)(从)(国)(际)(估)(值)(对)(比)(角)(度)(审)(视)(成)(长)(股)(估)(值)(高)(低)(。从)(目)(前)(估)(值)(水)(平)(看)(创)(业)(板)(指)(较)(海)(外)(成)(长)(指)(数)(估)(值)(溢)(价)(已)(处)(历)(史)(低)(位)(,创)(业)(板)(指)(-纳)(斯)(达)(克)(100PE从)(15年)(6月)(初)(的)(113.0倍)(开)(始)(持)(续)(降)(至)(18年)(2月)(初)(的)(5.9倍)(,其)(后)(开)(始)(上)(升)(至)(目)(前)(的)(15.3倍)(,低)(于)(2011年)(4月)(以)(来)(的)(均)(值)(31.1倍)(,处)(于)(历)(史)(从)(低)(到)(高)(18%分)(位)(。创)(业)(板)(指)(-恒)(生)(资)(讯)(科)(技)(股)(PE从)(15年)(6月)(初)(的)(92.8倍)(开)(始)(持)(续)(降)(至)(18年)(2月)(初)(的)(-15.2倍)(,其)(后)(开)(始)(上)(升)(至)(目)(前)(的)(8.6倍)(,低)(于)(2010年)(6月)(以)(来)(的)(均)(值)(20.3倍)(,处)(于)(历)(史)(从)(低)(到)(高)(25%分)(位)(。
3.拆)(解)(估)(值)(结)(构)(:制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(在)(中)(低)(位)(
创)(业)(板)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(是)(真)(正)(决)(定)(创)(业)(板)(估)(值)(贵)(与)(否)(的)(核)(心)(指)(标)(。纵)(横)(比)(较)(创)(业)(板)(估)(值)(水)(平)(后)(,我)(们)(想)(再)(深)(一)(步)(对)(创)(业)(板)(估)(值)(进)(行)(拆)(解)(,看)(创)(业)(板)(自)(身)(的)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(多)(高)(。首)(先)(需)(要)(一)(个)(比)(较)(基)(准)(,我)(们)(发)(现)(MSCIChina(除)(A股)()指)(数)(是)(一)(个)(很)(好)(参)(照)(样)(本)(,它)(主)(要)(包)(含)(的)(是)(主)(营)(业)(务)(在)(中)(国)(的)(H股)(、红)(筹)(股)(、中)(资)(民)(营)(股)(以)(及)(美)(国)(中)(概)(股)(,共)(153只)(个)(股)(。这)(些)(公)(司)(和)(A股)(上)(市)(公)(司)(的)(基)(本)(面)(类)(似)(,其)(估)(值)(水)(平)(可)(被)(视)(为)(国)(际)(定)(价)(基)(准)(,A股)(创)(业)(板)(与)(之)(相)(比)(存)(在)(三)(个)(估)(值)(溢)(价)(:A股)(较)(海)(外)(市)(场)(整)(体)(估)(值)(溢)(价)(、成)(长)(股)(较)(价)(值)(股)(的)(成)(长)(性)(溢)(价)(、创)(业)(板)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(。其)(中)(A股)(较)(海)(外)(市)(场)(整)(体)(估)(值)(溢)(价)(可)(以)(用)(A/H(除)(金)(融)()估)(值)(溢)(价)(表)(示)(,成)(长)(股)(较)(价)(值)(股)(的)(成)(长)(性)(溢)(价)(可)(用)(以)(纳)(斯)(达)(克)(/标)(普)(500估)(值)(溢)(价)(表)(示)(,余)(下)(的)(残)(差)(项)(即)(代)(表)(创)(业)(板)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(。这)(个)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(即)(是)(真)(正)(决)(定)(创)(业)(板)(估)(值)(贵)(与)(否)(的)(核)(心)(指)(标)(。
创)(业)(板)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(目)(前)(处)(于)(历)(史)(40%分)(位)(左)(右)(。2010年)(6月)(至)(今)(残)(值)(项)(与)(创)(业)(板)(指)(PE走)(势)(的)(相)(关)(性)(达)(到)(91%,表)(明)(残)(值)(项)((创)(业)(板)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)()可)(以)(为)(创)(业)(板)(指)(估)(值)(提)(供)(较)(好)(的)(佐)(证)(视)(角)(。从)(三)(个)(关)(键)(时)(点)(看)(,创)(业)(板)(牛)(市)(行)(情)(起)(点)((2012/12/4)创)(业)(板)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(13.5倍)(,处)(于)(明)(显)(偏)(低)(位)(置)(;创)(业)(板)(牛)(市)(顶)(点)((2015/6/5)创)(业)(板)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(97.8倍)(,创)(下)(历)(史)(高)(点)(;上)(证)(综)(指)(2638点)((16/1/27)创)(业)(板)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(35.6倍)(,仍)(算)(不)(上)(便)(宜)(。目)(前)(创)(业)(板)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(处)(于)(历)(史)(中)(低)(位)(,创)(业)(板)(制)(度)(性)(溢)(价)(从)(15年)(6月)(初)(的)(97.8倍)(开)(始)(持)(续)(降)(至)(18年)(2月)(初)(的)(13.4倍)(,其)(后)(开)(始)(上)(升)(至)(目)(前)(的)(25.1倍)(,低)(于)(2010年)(6月)(以)(来)(的)(均)(值)(31倍)(,处)(于)(历)(史)(从)(低)(到)(高)(40%分)(位)(。
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