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45万亿投资大爆发?人民币或将贬值?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月25日 22:14:28
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(所)(以)(二)(者)(根)(本)(不)(同)(,而)(实)(际)(上)(这)(些)(年)(我)(们)(GDP的)(8成)(都)(是)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(我)(们)(一)(直)(在)(延)(续)(投)(资)(拉)(动)(经)(济)(的)(老)(路)(,比)(如)(2015年)(GDP是)(68.91万)(亿)(,而)(2015年)(的)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(就)(是)(55.15万)(亿)(。你)(简)(单)(除)(一)(下)(,基)(本)(是)(8成)(。而)(2014年)(的)(GDP是)(64.4万)(亿)(,固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(是)(50.2万)(亿)(,除)(下)(来)(78%。所)(以)(这)(么)(粗)(略)(推)(算)(,假)(设)(2016年)(和)(2017年)(,我)(们)(GDP涨)(幅)(都)(是)(7%的)(话)(,那)(么)(2016年)(差)(不)(多)(有)(73万)(亿)(,2017年)(是)(78万)(亿)(,分)(别)(乘)(以)(80%,差)(不)(多)(就)(是)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(了)(,那)(么)(保)(守)(估)(计)(2017年)(也)(怎)(么)(得)(有)(个)(63万)(亿)(,所)(以)(现)(在)(只)(有)(23个)(省)(份)(公)(布)(了)(预)(计)(情)(况)(,大)(概)(达)(到)(了)(45万)(亿)(,你)(说)(多)(吗)(?再)(正)(常)(不)(过)(了)(吧)(!如)(果)(没)(有)(这)(个)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(,那)(么)(GDP早)(就)(哗)(啦)(啦)(的)(掉)(下)(来)(了)(。
而)(且)(从)(筹)(钱)(的)(角)(度)(看)(,并)(不)(是)(说)(45万)(亿)(的)(投)(资)(,都)(要)(扔)(进)(去)(45万)(亿)(的)(人)(民)(币)(,一)(般)(基)(建)(的)(资)(金)(分)(配)(来)(看)(,这)(其)(中)(国)(家)(预)(算)(的)(比)(例)(只)(有)(15%,国)(内)(贷)(款)(再)(有)(15%,其)(他)(资)(金)(还)(有)(7%,绝)(大)(部)(分)(都)(是)(项)(目)(自)(筹)(资)(金)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(这)(些)(钱)(本)(来)(就)(存)(在)(的)(,你)(不)(让)(他)(干)(项)(目)(,他)(就)(会)(涌)(向)(楼)(市)(股)(市)(甚)(至)(炒)(农)(产)(品)(去)(了)(。所)(以)(让)(大)(家)(各)(得)(其)(所)(,各)(有)(各)(的)(事)(情)(做)(,把)(好)(钢)(都)(用)(在)(刀)(刃)(上)(,钱)(都)(用)(在)(建)(设)(上)(。这)(没)(有)(任)(何)(问)(题)(。只)(要)(规)(划)(做)(好)(,别)(再)(出)(现)(脑)(门)(一)(热)(,集)(中)(花)(钱)(就)(好)(。
但)(最)(后)(还)(是)(要)(说)(,虽)(然)(看)(上)(去)(很)(正)(常)(,这)(几)(年)(我)(们)(一)(直)(是)(这)(么)(干)(的)(,不)(过)(我)(们)(的)(投)(资)(依)(赖)(问)(题)(似)(乎)(越)(来)(越)(严)(重)(了)(,投)(资)(是)(什)(么)(说)(白)(了)(就)(是)(政)(府)(花)(钱)(,老)(百)(姓)(不)(花)(钱)(消)(费)(,政)(府)(才)(会)(花)(钱)(投)(资)(,你)(不)(花)(我)(就)(花)(,总)(得)(有)(人)(把)(钱)(花)(出)(去)(,这)(样)(经)(济)(才)(能)(转)(起)(来)(,如)(果)(谁)(都)(不)(花)(钱)(,那)(么)(就)(是)(经)(济)(危)(机)(了)(。而)(这)(几)(年)(你)(会)(发)(现)(,在)(GDP占)(比)(中)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(的)(权)(重)(越)(来)(越)(大)(,说)(白)(了)(就)(是)(我)(们)(维)(持)(这)(个)(经)(济)(增)(长)(,老)(百)(姓)(的)(参)(与)(在)(下)(降)(,生)(活)(没)(有)(因)(为)(经)(济)(增)(长)(变)(得)(改)(善)(。反)(倒)(都)(成)(了)(钢)(筋)(水)(泥)(的)(建)(设)(。一)(个)(一)(个)(项)(目)(修)(下)(去)(,总)(有)(个)(尽)(头)(,而)(且)(这)(种)(规)(划)(式)(的)(建)(设)(,虽)(然)(数)(字)(上)(好)(看)(,对)(GDP数)(字)(的)(可)(控)(度)(比)(较)(高)(,但)(效)(率)(很)(低)(,我)(们)(建)(了)(太)(多)(的)(鬼)(城)(,新)(城)(。这)(些)(东)(西)(的)(出)(现)(拉)(动)(了)(大)(量)(的)(GDP,但)(跟)(人)(民)(生)(活)(却)(没)(毛)(关)(系)(,新)(城)(建)(好)(了)(也)(没)(人)(去)(,因)(为)(没)(有)(工)(作)(机)(会)(,所)(以)(这)(就)(是)(我)(们)(经)(济)(结)(构)(的)(问)(题)(所)(在)(。只)(有)(变)(成)(消)(费)(驱)(动)(的)(经)(济)(模)(式)(,效)(率)(才)(会)(最)(高)(,才)(可)(以)(持)(续)(,发)(达)(国)(家)(无)(一)(不)(是)(消)(费)(驱)(动)(的)(。而)(成)(为)(消)(费)(驱)(动)(之)(前)(,我)(们)(必)(须)(要)(解)(决)(就)(是)(居)(民)(负)(担)(过)(重)(的)(问)(题)(,比)(如)(房)(子)(、教)(育)(、医)(疗)(养)(老)(,这)(些)(问)(题)(压)(在)(大)(家)(头)(上)(,似)(乎)(永)(远)(无)(解)(。钱)(都)(被)(这)(些)(部)(门)(吸)(走)(了)(,也)(就)(不)(可)(能)(去)(做)(到)(高)(消)(费)(,而)(越)(不)(消)(费)(,就)(越)(要)(基)(建)(投)(资)(,为)(了)(筹)(钱)(就)(要)(推)(高)(土)(地)(价)(格)(,而)(地)(价)(高)(房)(价)(也)(就)(更)(高)(,房)(价)(更)(高)(大)(家)(就)(更)(没)(钱)(消)(费)(。这)(明)(显)(进)(入)(了)(一)(个)(死)(循)(环)(。
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