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从亚投行看全球治理和中国选择

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月18日 06:49:28
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(  金)(融)(危)(机)(后)(,美)(国)(霸)(权)(已)(“面)(露)(难)(色)(”,中)(国)(等)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(的)(影)(响)(力)(便)(在)(国)(际)(舞)(台)(上)(冉)(冉)(升)(起)(,而)(亚)(洲)(基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(银)(行)((亚)(投)(行)()的)(出)(现)(则)(让)(中)(国)(影)(响)(力)(变)(得)(更)(为)(真)(切)(具)(体)(,也)(让)(重)(新)(审)(视)(全)(球)(治)(理)(结)(构)(的)(任)(务)(刻)(不)(容)(缓)(。
  用)(数)(据)(说)(话)(往)(往)(更)(为)(直)(观)(。从)(购)(买)(力)(平)(价)((PPP)来)(看)(,新)(兴)(市)(场)(和)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(的)(GDP超)(过)(了)(发)(达)(国)(家)(;从)(全)(球)(增)(量)(角)(度)(,新)(兴)(市)(场)(可)(能)(占)(到)(60%,中)(国)(又)(占)(到)(约)(30%。相)(较)(之)(下)(,新)(兴)(市)(场)(在)(世)(界)(银)(行)(、国)(际)(货)(币)(基)(金)(组)(织)((IMF)等)(国)(际)(多)(边)(机)(构)(的)(话)(语)(权)(却)(微)(乎)(其)(微)(,因)(此)(全)(球)(治)(理)(便)(引)(发)(了)(重)(大)(思)(考)(,而)(中)(国)(在)(这)(过)(程)(中)(又)(应)(如)(何)(抉)(择)(?
  在)(这)(一)(背)(景)(下)(,由)(复)(旦)(大)(学)(管)(理)(学)(院)(和)(第)(一)(财)(经)(研)(究)(院)(合)(办)(的)(“从)(亚)(投)(行)(看)(全)(球)(治)(理)(和)(中)(国)(选)(择)(”研)(讨)(会)(在)(沪)(举)(办)(,并)(汇)(聚)(了)(一)(批)(学)(贯)(中)(西)(、驰)(骋)(国)(际)(舞)(台)(的)(专)(家)(学)(者)(,包)(括)(国)(务)(院)(侨)(办)(副)(主)(任)(、外)(交)(部)(前)(副)(部)(长)(、前)(G20Sherpa何)(亚)(非)(,上)(海)(银)(监)(局)(局)(长)(廖)(岷)(,上)(海)(国)(际)(问)(题)(研)(究)(院)(院)(长)(陈)(东)(晓)(,复)(旦)(大)(学)(国)(际)(问)(题)(研)(究)(院)(常)(务)(副)(院)(长)(、美)(国)(研)(究)(中)(心)(主)(任)(吴)(心)(伯)(,以)(及)(复)(旦)(大)(学)(管)(理)(学)(院)(院)(长)(陆)(雄)(文)(。
  “2015年)(是)(中)(国)(的)(大)(年)(,亚)(投)(行)(和)(一)(带)(一)(路)(正)(逐)(步)(影)(响)(着)(全)(球)(治)(理)(模)(式)(;2016年)(更)(是)(中)(国)(的)(大)(年)(,中)(国)(会)(作)(为)(G20峰)(会)(的)(主)(席)(国)(,同)(各)(国)(商)(讨)(全)(球)(经)(济)(和)(治)(理)(的)(未)(来)(。”本)(次)(研)(讨)(会)(主)(持)(人)(、《第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(》副)(总)(编)(辑)(、第)(一)(财)(经)(研)(究)(院)(院)(长)(杨)(燕)(青)(表)(示)(。
  何)(亚)(非)(:
  一)(个)(外)(交)(家)(眼)(中)(的)(中)(国)(崛)(起)(
  何)(亚)(非)(曾)(任)(外)(交)(部)(副)(部)(长)(,他)(在)(2008年)(到)(2010年)(是)(全)(球)(范)(围)(内)(G20中)(国)(最)(重)(要)(的)(参)(与)(者)(和)(决)(策)(者)(,新)(书)(《选)(择)(:中)(国)(与)(全)(球)(治)(理)(》也)(收)(录)(了)(其)(在)(国)(际)(外)(交)(舞)(台)(的)(回)(忆)(和)(趣)(事)(。当)(日)(,何)(亚)(非)(也)(以)(两)(个)(外)(交)(故)(事)(描)(述)(了)(中)(国)(崛)(起)(。
  说)(起)(第)(一)(个)(故)(事)(,何)(亚)(非)(回)(忆)(称)(,2008年)(的)(全)(球)(金)(融)(危)(机)(震)(动)(了)(西)(方)(主)(导)(的)(国)(际)(体)(系)(,华)(尔)(街)(的)(贪)(婪)(和)(“两)(房)(”等)(的)(次)(级)(债)(则)(是)(始)(作)(俑)(者)(,而)(此)(时)(以)(中)(国)(为)(代)(表)(的)(新)(兴)(国)(家)(的)(力)(量)(在)(上)(升)(,因)(此)(原)(来)(只)(流)(于)(形)(式)(的)(G20会)(议)(顿)(时)(地)(位)(上)(升)(至)(峰)(会)(。
  “时)(任)(美)(国)(财)(长)(的)(保)(尔)(森)(访)(华)(,恳)(请)(中)(国)(不)(要)(抛)(售)(两)(房)(债)(券)(,因)(为)(我)(们)(手)(里)(握)(了)(几)(千)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(债)(券)(。如)(果)(中)(国)(要)(把)(债)(券)(抛)(掉)(,美)(国)(的)(金)(融)(体)(系)(就)(可)(能)(会)(崩)(溃)(。”何)(亚)(非)(称)(,当)(时)(作)(为)(G20的)(一)(员)(真)(切)(感)(觉)(到)(了)(中)(国)(确)(实)(是)(很)(有)(分)(量)(,中)(国)(的)(一)(个)(决)(定)(便)(可)(能)(影)(响)(全)(球)(整)(个)(体)(系)(的)(存)(亡)(。
  “中)(国)(当)(时)(可)(能)(并)(没)(完)(全)(意)(识)(到)(自)(己)(身)(上)(的)(责)(任)(,但)(是)(已)(经)(感)(受)(到)(了)(压)(力)(,确)(实)(这)(个)(钱)(不)(是)(小)(数)(目)(,是)(我)(们)(中)(国)(人)(民)(辛)(苦)(赚)(来)(的)(钱)(。怎)(么)(办)(?”何)(亚)(非)(说)(,最)(后)(中)(国)(还)(是)(从)(中)(美)(两)(国)(关)(系)(、世)(界)(金)(融)(体)(系)(存)(亡)(的)(角)(度)(考)(虑)(,在)(美)(国)(承)(诺)(还)(款)(的)(基)(础)(上)(同)(意)(出)(手)(相)(助)(。毕)(竟)(,在)(一)(个)(全)(球)(化)(的)(世)(界)(里)(,中)(国)(再)(也)(无)(法)(独)(自)(全)(身)(而)(退)(。
  再)(说)(到)(第)(二)(个)(故)(事)(,时)(间)(就)(到)(了)(2009年)(,即)(第)(二)(次)(G20峰)(会)(,而)(这)(次)(希)(望)(中)(国)(出)(手)(相)(助)(的)(是)(IMF。
  由)(于)(金)(融)(危)(机)(肆)(虐)(,欧)(债)(危)(机)(也)(随)(之)(爆)(发)(,欧)(洲)(多)(国)(纷)(纷)(“中)(招)(”,IMF应)(急)(救)(助)(资)(金)(池)(顿)(时)(“不)(堪)(重)(负)(”。何)(亚)(非)(回)(忆)(称)(:“当)(时)(英)(国)(领)(导)(人)(不)(断)(给)(中)(国)(领)(导)(人)(打)(电)(话)(,求)(中)(国)(帮)(忙)(,承)(诺)(扩)(大)(对)(IMF的)(注)(资)(。我)(又)(感)(觉)(到)(中)(国)(这)(时)(是)(站)(在)(历)(史)(的)(关)(键)(时)(刻)(,中)(国)(的)(作)(用)(再)(次)(出)(现)(了)(。”
  最)(后)(,中)(国)(承)(诺)(购)(买)(500亿)(美)(元)(的)(IMF债)(券)(,这)(也)(顿)(时)(产)(生)(了)(“羊)(群)(效)(应)(”,其)(他)(国)(家)(也)(纷)(纷)(跟)(进)(注)(资)(。
  不)(过)(,何)(亚)(非)(也)(坦)(言)(,当)(时)(中)(国)(的)(注)(资)(也)(承)(载)(了)(不)(少)(国)(内)(舆)(论)(压)(力)(——中)(国)(人)(的)(钱)(凭)(什)(么)(拿)(来)(救)(别)(人)(,中)(国)(也)(有)(很)(多)(贫)(困)(人)(口)(,也)(有)(很)(多)(需)(要)(花)(钱)(的)(地)(方)(。“我)(们)(要)(说)(服)(国)(内)(人)(,这)(个)(世)(界)(是)(全)(球)(化)(的)(,只)(有)(全)(球)(其)(他)(经)(济)(都)(好)(了)(,中)(国)(才)(会)(好)(,这)(和)(我)(们)(现)(在)(提)(出)(的)(一)(带)(一)(路)(思)(路)(是)(一)(样)(的)(,大)(家)(一)(起)(跑)(你)(才)(能)(跑)(,大)(河)(有)(水)(小)(河)(满)(。”何)(亚)(非)(称)(。
  也)(就)(是)(这)(两)(个)(看)(似)(简)(单)(的)(故)(事)(,真)(切)(体)(现)(了)(这)(几)(年)(的)(全)(球)(治)(理)(已)(经)(从)(西)(方)(治)(理)(向)(东)(西)(方)(共)(同)(治)(理)(转)(变)(。作)(为)(历)(史)(的)(见)(证)(者)(,何)(亚)(非)(感)(叹)(:“虽)(然)(我)(们)(的)(声)(音)(不)(是)(很)(强)(,但)(是)(中)(国)(的)(声)(音)(或)(作)(用)(已)(经)(不)(能)(忽)(视)(。”
  吴)(心)(伯)(:中)(国)(应)(区)(别)(于)(美)(国)(的)(全)(球)(治)(理)(模)(式)(
  中)(国)(主)(导)(的)(亚)(投)(行)(、“一)(带)(一)(路)(”受)(到)(全)(球)(多)(国)(支)(持)(,在)(中)(国)(迈)(向)(新)(的)(全)(球)(治)(理)(模)(式)(之)(时)(,应)(如)(何)(区)(别)(于)(美)(国)(模)(式)(?又)(应)(如)(何)(吸)(取)(美)(国)(的)(经)(验)(教)(训)(?
  作)(为)(美)(国)(研)(究)(专)(家)(,吴)(心)(伯)(表)(示)(,中)(国)(当)(前)(的)(全)(球)(治)(理)(与)(美)(国)(当)(年)(大)(相)(径)(庭)(。“美)(国)(是)(在)(二)(战)(背)(景)(下)(,通)(过)(军)(事)(手)(段)(而)(获)(得)(世)(界)(主)(导)(地)(位)(,因)(此)(是)(先)(军)(事)(到)(政)(治)(再)(到)(经)(济)(的)(过)(程)(。”
  就)(中)(国)(而)(言)(,“中)(国)(参)(与)(全)(球)(治)(理)(的)(契)(机)(就)(是)(金)(融)(危)(机)(,所)(以)(实)(际)(上)(中)(国)(是)(以)(经)(济)(主)(导)(的)(形)(式)(来)(参)(与)(全)(球)(治)(理)(。”吴)(心)(伯)(也)(表)(示)(,冷)(战)(结)(束)(了)(,东)(西)(方)(的)(人)(文)(分)(割)(已)(经)(结)(束)(了)(,中)(国)(主)(导)(全)(球)(治)(理)(的)(风)(格)(应)(该)(区)(别)(于)(美)(国)(,美)(国)(首)(先)(强)(调)(的)(是)(主)(导)(、是)(“一)(股)(独)(大)(”,而)(中)(国)(更)(多)(的)(是)(追)(求)(集)(体)(领)(导)(,这)(样)(才)(可)(以)(走)(得)(远)(,这)(是)(中)(国)(跟)(美)(国)(不)(同)(的)(地)(方)(。
  此)(外)(,吴)(心)(伯)(指)(出)(,中)(国)(的)(方)(案)(更)(为)(务)(实)(,而)(美)(国)(方)(案)(的)(意)(识)(形)(态)(色)(彩)(较)(重)(,这)(可)(能)(是)(中)(国)(超)(越)(美)(国)(的)(机)(会)(。
  比)(起)(当)(年)(美)(国)(重)(起)(炉)(灶)(、设)(立)(了)(多)(家)(多)(边)(机)(构)(,中)(国)(则)(是)(采)(取)(了)(一)(种)(渐)(进)(和)(改)(革)(的)(方)(式)(。“中)(国)(并)(未)(选)(择)(重)(起)(炉)(灶)(,而)(是)(在)(当)(前)(的)(体)(系)(里)(面)(做)(增)(量)(,依)(靠)(增)(量)(慢)(慢)(做)(大)(,在)(过)(程)(当)(中)(获)(得)(更)(多)(的)(话)(语)(权)(。”吴)(心)(伯)(说)(道)(。
  陈)(东)(晓)(:支)(持)(中)(美)(合)(作)(
  中)(国)(更)(应)(当)(好)(“主)(导)(者)(”
  作)(为)(国)(际)(问)(题)(研)(究)(专)(家)(,陈)(东)(晓)(既)(支)(持)(“中)(美)(合)(作)(”的)(“协)(同)(效)(应)(”,更)(认)(为)(中)(国)(应)(该)(少)(受)(“谦)(虚)(传)(统)(”的)(束)(缚)(,在)(全)(球)(治)(理)(格)(局)(中)(扮)(演)(好)(“主)(导)(者)(”。
  陈)(东)(晓)(援)(引)(据)(亚)(洲)(开)(发)(银)(行)(的)(测)(算)(表)(示)(,从)(现)(在)(到)(2020年)(期)(间)(,亚)(洲)(地)(区)(每)(年)(基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(需)(求)(将)(达)(到)(7300亿)(美)(元)(,“按)(照)(现)(在)(每)(年)(供)(应)(约)(10亿)(美)(元)(,中)(国)(的)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(完)(全)(是)(有)(市)(场)(的)(。”
  更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(,中)(美)(合)(作)(将)(进)(一)(步)(做)(大)(这)(块)(“蛋)(糕)(”。“中)(美)(之)(间)(也)(在)(探)(讨)(第)(三)(方)(国)(际)(产)(能)(合)(作)(。美)(国)(已)(经)(进)(入)(到)(逐)(步)(向)(着)(更)(高)(端)(、绿)(色)(的)(发)(展)(阶)(段)(。而)(如)(何)(在)(新)(的)(巨)(大)(的)(产)(能)(和)(基)(础)(设)(施)(需)(求)(之)(下)(能)(够)(抓)(住)(这)(个)(机)(遇)(,中)(美)(就)(需)(要)(优)(势)(有)(互)(补)(。双)(方)(现)(在)(形)(成)(一)(个)(工)(作)(组)(探)(讨)(项)(目)(方)(式)(标)(准)(,我)(觉)(得)(这)(个)(潜)(力)(是)(巨)(大)(的)(。”
  尽)(管)(合)(作)(是)(不)(可)(缺)(少)(的)(,但)(在)(亚)(投)(行)(等)(中)(国)(主)(导)(的)(全)(球)(治)(理)(格)(局)(下)(,“主)(导)(权)(”不)(能)(因)(合)(作)(而)(放)(弃)(。
  “原)(来)(中)(国)(人)(比)(较)(谦)(虚)(,我)(们)(习)(惯)(跟)(投)(、说)(不)(或)(者)(是)(弃)(权)(,诸)(多)(变)(化)(伴)(随)(着)(新)(世)(纪)(到)(来)(,在)(这)(一)(过)(程)(当)(中)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(我)(们)(自)(己)(要)(发)(更)(多)(声)(音)(,而)(且)(国)(际)(社)(会)(希)(望)(听)(到)(我)(们)(发)(声)(音)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(,如)(亚)(投)(行)(等)(多)(边)(机)(构)(涉)(及)(到)(许)(多)(详)(细)(路)(线)(设)(计)(和)(新)(理)(念)(,包)(括)(新)(的)(发)(展)(观)(、融)(资)(观)(和)(服)(务)(观)(,而)(这)(些)(都)(需)(要)(具)(体)(的)(项)(目)(推)(进)(。”陈)(东)(晓)(表)(示)(。
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