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美元“烂泥扶不上墙”痛失90大关,背后推手究竟是谁?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月22日 19:43:22
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(  周)(三)((1月)(24日)()亚)(市)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(延)(续)(弱)(势)(走)(势)(,跌)(穿)(90美)(元)(大)(关)(,目)(前)(仍)(陷)(于)(三)(年)(低)(位)(附)(近)(,虽)(然)(此)(前)(美)(国)(议)(员)(达)(成)(协)(议)(,暂)(时)(解)(除)(三)(天)(来)(政)(府)(关)(门)(局)(面)(,不)(过)(市)(场)(对)(此)(担)(忧)(并)(未)(完)(全)(解)(除)(,世)(界)(各)(国)(央)(行)(推)(动)(货)(币)(政)(策)(正)(常)(化)(,美)(国)(政)(治)(不)(确)(定)(性)(增)(加)(,以)(及)(市)(场)(普)(遍)(缺)(乏)(波)(动)(性)(,这)(些)(因)(素)(都)(损)(及)(美)(元)(。
  
  周)(三)(亚)(市)(早)(盘)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(一)(度)(失)(守)(90这)(一)(重)(要)(心)(理)(关)(口)(,刷)(新)(2014年)(年)(底)(以)(来)(低)(位)(至)(89.97,因)(美)(元)(走)(弱)(,非)(美)(货)(币)(则)(延)(续)(升)(势)(,美)(元)(兑)(日)(元)(跌)(破)(110关)(口)(,震)(荡)(交)(投)(于)(近)(四)(个)(月)(低)(位)(109.95附)(近)(,英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(震)(荡)(交)(投)(于)(1.40关)(口)(上)(方)(,续)(刷)(近)(一)(年)(半)(高)(位)(至)(1.4037,现)(货)(黄)(金)(则)(守)(稳)(1340美)(元)(关)(口)(上)(方)(。有)(分)(析)(师)(指)(出)(,随)(着)(全)(球)(经)(济)(增)(速)(加)(快)(,其)(它)(央)(行)(在)(收)(紧)(货)(币)(政)(策)(方)(面)(迎)(头)(赶)(上)(,美)(元)(仍)(可)(能)(进)(一)(步)(下)(滑)(。
  美)(元)(为)(何)(如)(此)(“倒)(霉)(”?
  美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(赢)(得)(选)(举)(胜)(利)(,曾)(在)(2017年)(初)(提)(振)(美)(元)(的)(表)(现)(,并)(将)(美)(元)(指)(数)(推)(升)(至)(14年)(高)(位)(。市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(当)(时)(认)(为)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(表)(现)(将)(优)(于)(欧)(洲)(、日)(本)(和)(中)(国)(,美)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(收)(紧)(步)(伐)(将)(比)(其)(他)(经)(济)(体)(更)(加)(激)(进)(。
  但)(在)(过)(去)(十)(三)(个)(月)(里)(,市)(场)(已)(重)(新)(评)(估)(这)(些)(假)(设)(。美)(国)(政)(府)(兑)(现)(一)(些)(经)(济)(承)(诺)(的)(速)(度)(慢)(于)(预)(期)(,对)(美)(元)(造)(成)(了)(伤)(害)(,扭)(转)(了)(最)(初)(的)(选)(举)(后)(涨)(势)(。
  与)(此)(同)(时)(,大)(约)(一)(年)(前)(还)(处)(于)(低)(迷)(状)(态)(的)(欧)(元)(区)(经)(济)(活)(跃)(起)(来)(。
  法)(国)(总)(统)(马)(克)(龙)(和)(德)(国)(总)(理)(默)(克)(尔)(各)(自)(赢)(得)(选)(举)(胜)(利)(,挫)(败)(了)(右)(翼)(民)(粹)(主)(义)(的)(威)(胁)(并)(帮)(助)(支)(撑)(欧)(元)(。这)(引)(发)(了)(关)(于)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)((ECB)将)(在)(2018年)(停)(止)(购)(债)(并)(接)(着)(很)(快)(加)(息)(的)(希)(望)(。
  加)(拿)(大)(央)(行)(、英)(国)(央)(行)(和)(日)(本)(央)(行)(等)(其)(他)(央)(行)(也)(开)(始)(谈)(论)(收)(紧)(货)(币)(政)(策)(。整)(个)(市)(场)(波)(动)(率)(极)(低)(,也)(降)(低)(了)(美)(元)(的)(避)(险)(吸)(引)(力)(。
  美)(元)(对)(央)(行)(的)(政)(策)(决)(定)(敏)(感)(也)(是)(一)(个)(主)(因)(
  央)(行)(影)(响)(特)(定)(市)(场)(的)(资)(本)(成)(本)(,即)(资)(金)(的)(价)(格)(。利)(率)(上)(升)(提)(振)(美)(元)(吸)(引)(力)(,吸)(引)(外)(资)(,增)(加)(对)(美)(元)(的)(需)(求)(并)(进)(而)(提)(升)(美)(元)(的)(价)(值)(。
  利)(率)(差)(异)(导)(致)(交)(易)(商)(卖)(出)(收)(益)(较)(低)(的)(货)(币)(,买)(进)(收)(益)(较)(高)(的)(货)(币)(。
  由)(于)(其)(他)(主)(要)(央)(行)(正)(在)(考)(虑)(政)(策)(正)(常)(化)(,美)(元)(不)(再)(是)(唯)(一)(的)(选)(择)(。
  美)(元)(走)(软)(对)(美)(国)(企)(业)(获)(利)(与)(经)(济)(有)(何)(影)(响)(?
  美)(国)(的)(跨)(国)(公)(司)(可)(以)(从)(美)(元)(的)(下)(跌)(中)(受)(益)(,美)(元)(贬)(值)(使)(得)(海)(外)(营)(收)(在)(兑)(换)(成)(美)(元)(时)(变)(得)(更)(多)(。
  美)(元)(贬)(值)(对)(美)(国)(出)(口)(商)(和)(制)(造)(商)(来)(说)(也)(是)(一)(个)(福)(音)(,因)(为)(这)(使)(得)(它)(们)(面)(对)(海)(外)(对)(手)(时)(具)(有)(竞)(争)(优)(势)(。
  但)(是)(美)(元)(走)(软)(使)(得)(进)(口)(商)(品)(更)(加)(昂)(贵)(,不)(利)(于)(美)(国)(消)(费)(者)(,并)(会)(损)(害)(依)(赖)(外)(国)(商)(品)(的)(公)(司)(,例)(如)(零)(售)(商)(。也)(可)(能)(使)(美)(国)(资)(产)(对)(外)(国)(投)(资)(者)(的)(吸)(引)(力)(下)(降)(。
  美)(元)(或)(面)(临)(更)(大)(压)(力)(?
  到)(目)(前)(为)(止)(,货)(币)(市)(场)(已)(经)(基)(本)(上)(忽)(略)(围)(绕)(北)(美)(自)(由)(贸)(易)(协)(定)(谈)(判)(的)(激)(烈)(言)(辞)(。如)(果)(发)(生)(贸)(易)(战)(的)(可)(能)(性)(上)(升)(,从)(长)(远)(来)(看)(可)(能)(会)(伤)(害)(美)(元)(。
  如)(果)(美)(国)(经)(济)(中)(的)(通)(胀)(没)(有)(显)(示)(出)(任)(何)(有)(意)(义)(的)(上)(涨)(,就)(可)(能)(在)(升)(息)(时)(束)(缚)(美)(联)(储)(的)(手)(脚)(并)(拖)(累)(美)(元)(走)(低)(。如)(果)(正)(赶)(上)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(变)(得)(更)(加)(鹰)(派)(,这)(种)(影)(响)(可)(能)(会)(加)(剧)(。尽)(管)(美)(元)(走)(低)(,但)(美)(国)(通)(胀)(一)(直)(非)(常)(疲)(软)(。
  投)(资)(者)(原)(本)(寄)(望)(美)(国)(税)(改)(将)(促)(使)(跨)(国)(公)(司)(将)(海)(外)(获)(利)(兑)(换)(为)(美)(元)(并)(终)(结)(美)(元)(跌)(势)(,现)(在)(他)(们)(可)(能)(不)(得)(不)(降)(低)(对)(于)(美)(元)(长)(期)(反)(弹)(的)(希)(望)(。
  如)(果)(全)(球)(投)(资)(者)(考)(虑)(将)(美)(元)(头)(寸)(分)(散)(到)(欧)(元)(等)(其)(他)(货)(币)(,那)(可)(能)(会)(对)(美)(元)(构)(成)(压)(力)(。
  国)(际)(货)(币)(基)(金)(组)(织)((IMF)每)(个)(季)(度)(公)(布)(关)(于)(全)(球)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(的)(货)(币)(构)(成)(情)(况)(。对)(这)(些)(数)(据)(的)(分)(析)(显)(示)(,储)(备)(管)(理)(者)(正)(在)(加)(快)(增)(持)(美)(元)(以)(外)(的)(货)(币)(。
  可)(以)(肯)(定)(的)(是)(,一)(些)(分)(析)(师)(警)(告)(说)(,美)(元)(疲)(软)(过)(度)(,市)(场)(过)(度)(作)(空)(美)(元)(,如)(果)(美)(元)(出)(现)(利)(好)(消)(息)(,就)(可)(能)(引)(发)(轧)(空)(行)(情)(。
  根)(据)(最)(近)(调)(查)(中)(的)(大)(多)(数)(外)(汇)(分)(析)(师)(的)(预)(测)(,虽)(然)(美)(元)(的)(困)(难)(处)(境)(尚)(未)(结)(束)(,但)(预)(计)(在)(2018年)(有)(所)(缓)(解)(。
  汇)(通)(财)(经)(易)(汇)(通)(行)(情)(软)(件)(,北)(京)(时)(间)(10:25,美)(元)(指)(数)(报)(89.99/90.00。
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