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谨慎应对【天风金工吴先兴团队】

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年12月11日 05:00:58
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(原)(标)(题)(:短)(期)(再)(迎)(事)(件)(冲)(击)(谨)(慎)(应)(对)(【天)(风)(金)(工)(吴)(先)(兴)(团)(队)(】
市)(场)(整)(体)((wind全)(A指)(数)():下)(跌)(趋)(势)(
估)(值)(水)(平)((wind全)(A指)(数)():低)(估)(
仓)(位)(建)(议)(:50%
风)(格)(分)(析)(:Wind全)(A指)(数)(仍)(处)(于)(下)(跌)(走)(势)(的)(大)(格)(局)(,更)(多)(是)(从)(确)(定)(性)(反)(弹)(的)(角)(度)(去)(捕)(捉)(收)(益)(,展)(望)(下)(周)(,市)(场)(将)(再)(度)(直)(面)(贸)(易)(战)(的)(风)(险)(事)(件)(,市)(场)(在)(下)(跌)(趋)(势)(的)(大)(格)(局)(之)(下)(,恐)(难)(有)(表)(现)(,建)(议)(保)(持)(谨)(慎)(,风)(格)(上)(,我)(们)(判)(断)(将)(维)(持)(均)(衡)(。
7月)(29日)(周)(报)(《反)(弹)(将)(在)(风)(险)(释)(放)(后)(延)(续)(》提)(示)(市)(场)(先)(要)(经)(过)(一)(周)(的)(下)(跌)(后)(才)(会)(反)(弹)(、8月)(6日)(我)(们)(周)(报)(《短)(期)(风)(险)(释)(放)(,迎)(接)(短)(暂)(反)(弹)(》提)(示)(市)(场)(将)(进)(入)(短)(暂)(反)(弹)(,随)(后)(会)(再)(次)(下)(跌)(。事)(实)(上)(8月)(6日)(之)(后)(,市)(场)(经)(历)(了)(大)(约)(一)(周)(多)(一)(点)(的)(反)(弹)(窗)(口)(,随)(后)(便)(开)(始)(大)(幅)(下)(挫)(。过)(去)(三)(周)(的)(市)(场)(走)(势)(和)(我)(们)(预)(期)(的)(几)(乎)(一)(致)(,我)(们)(判)(断)(的)(先)(跌)(后)(涨)(再)(跌)(的)(走)(势)(得)(到)(完)(美)(演)(绎)(。
回)(顾)(一)(下)(过)(去)(9个)(月)(的)(择)(时)(观)(点)(,11月)(23日)(模)(型)(触)(发)(趋)(势)(暂)(时)(结)(束)(信)(号)(,并)(于)(26日)(我)(们)(的)(周)(报)(中)(明)(确)(提)(出)(《白)(马)(股)(告)(一)(段)(落)(》,12月)(17日)(周)(报)(《准)(备)(迎)(接)(反)(弹)(》,重)(点)(参)(与)(上)(证)(50;1月)(21日)(周)(报)(《推)(荐)(基)(金)(涨)(幅)(已)(超)(10%,逢)(高)(兑)(现)(》,对)(上)(证)(50指)(数)(的)(预)(判)(结)(论)(是)(冲)(高)(回)(落)(,并)(将)(基)(金)(推)(荐)(调)(整)(为)(短)(债)(型)(基)(金)(,全)(面)(回)(避)(权)(益)(资)(产)(。2月)(7日)(我)(们)(判)(断)(中)(小)(创)(迎)(来)(短)(期)(加)(仓)(机)(会)(,风)(格)(上)(建)(议)(重)(视)(创)(业)(板)(的)(短)(期)(超)(额)(收)(益)(,3月)(下)(旬)(判)(断)(有)(一)(个)(阶)(段)(性)(调)(整)(,并)(判)(断)(反)(弹)(至)(6月)(初)(后)(进)(入)(调)(整)(,6月)(下)(旬)(开)(始)(我)(们)(判)(断)(创)(业)(板)(开)(启)(超)(跌)(反)(弹)(,7月)(底)(提)(示)(市)(场)(有)(风)(险)(,并)(将)(风)(格)(调)(整)(为)(均)(衡)(。
站)(在)(当)(下)(,天)(风)(金)(工)(择)(时)(体)(系)(显)(示)(wind全)(a指)(数)(继)(续)(处)(于)(下)(跌)(走)(势)(,我)(们)(定)(义)(的)(用)(来)(区)(别)(市)(场)(环)(境)(的)(wind全)(A长)(期)(均)(线)((120日)()和)(短)(期)(均)(线)((20日)()的)(距)(离)(继)(续)(扩)(大)(,20日)(线)(收)(于)(3764点)(,120日)(线)(收)(于)(4127,短)(期)(均)(线)(继)(续)(位)(于)(长)(线)(均)(线)(之)(下)(,两)(线)(距)(离)(为)(8.8%,均)(线)(距)(离)(与)(上)(期)(相)(比)(继)(续)(拉)(大)(,大)(幅)(高)(于)(我)(们)(3%阀)(值)(,指)(数)(继)(续)(处)(于)(下)(跌)(走)(势)(。   
今)(年)(二)(月)(以)(来)(择)(时)(系)(统)(一)(直)(显)(示)(wind全)(A指)(数)(是)(下)(跌)(趋)(势)(,更)(多)(是)(从)(确)(定)(性)(反)(弹)(的)(角)(度)(去)(捕)(捉)(收)(益)(,除)(此)(以)(外)(,保)(持)(谨)(慎)(。展)(望)(下)(周)(,市)(场)(将)(再)(度)(直)(面)(风)(险)(事)(件)(,美)(国)(政)(府)(公)(布)(对)(中)(国)(第)(二)(批)(279项)(、价)(值)(160亿)(美)(元)(输)(美)(商)(品)(加)(征)(关)(税)(清)(单)(,可)(能)(将)(于)(8月)(23日)(生)(效)(;8月)(16日)(,商)(务)(部)(发)(布)(消)(息)(称)(,应)(美)(方)(邀)(请)(,商)(务)(部)(8月)(下)(旬)(率)(团)(访)(美)(,与)(美)(方)(代)(表)(团)(就)(双)(方)(各)(自)(关)(注)(的)(中)(美)(经)(贸)(问)(题)(进)(行)(磋)(商)(。在)(正)(式)(磋)(商)(结)(果)(发)(布)(前)(,市)(场)(或)(将)(保)(持)(谨)(慎)(态)(势)(。
从)(风)(格)(角)(度)(来)(看)(,短)(期)(市)(场)(将)(进)(入)(均)(衡)(,短)(期)(小)(市)(值)(股)(票)(或)(将)(受)(益)(于)(国)(债)(期)(货)(的)(超)(跌)(反)(弹)(,但)(同)(时)(由)(于)(其)(高)(beta的)(属)(性)(,在)(下)(跌)(市)(场)(中)(或)(将)(幅)(度)(更)(大)(,综)(合)(之)(下)(,我)(们)(判)(断)(市)(场)(风)(格)(或)(将)(表)(现)(为)(均)(衡)(。
从)(估)(值)(指)(标)(来)(看)(,我)(们)(跟)(踪)(的)(PE和)(PB指)(标)(,各)(指)(数)(目)(前)(都)(处)(于)(相)(对)(自)(身)(的)(估)(值)(30分)(位)(点)(以)(内)(,进)(入)(我)(们)(定)(义)(的)(低)(估)(区)(域)(,因)(此)(从)(长)(期)(配)(置)(角)(度)(看)(,相)(对)(之)(前)(下)(跌)(趋)(势)(同)(时)(估)(值)(不)(低)(的)(背)(景)(下)(的)(仓)(位)(,根)(据)(我)(们)(的)(仓)(位)(管)(理)(模)(型)(,建)(议)(当)(前)(仓)(位)(为)(50%。
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