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跌跌不休的市场,哪里才是绝对安全区域?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月18日 07:24:14
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(原)(标)(题)(:跌)(跌)(不)(休)(的)(市)(场)(,哪)(里)(才)(是)(绝)(对)(安)(全)(区)(域)(?
身)(处)(3000点)(之)(下)(的)(A股)(市)(场)(,本)(来)(不)(应)(该)(存)(在)(过)(多)(的)(投)(资)(风)(险)(,但)(从)(市)(场)(指)(数)(的)(实)(际)(表)(现)(来)(看)(,依)(旧)(难)(逃)(跌)(跌)(不)(休)(的)(表)(现)(,而)(市)(场)(期)(待)(已)(久)(的)(重)(返)(3000点)(关)(口)(任)(务)(,却)(迟)(迟)(未)(能)(得)(以)(实)(现)(。
2691.02点)(,这)(是)(今)(年)(以)(来)(的)(调)(整)(新)(低)(点)(,与)(2016年)(1月)(下)(旬)(的)(2638.30低)(点)(,也)(仅)(有)(一)(步)(之)(遥)(的)(空)(间)(。最)(近)(一)(段)(时)(期)(内)(,虽)(然)(股)(市)(有)(着)(一)(定)(力)(度)(的)(反)(弹)(,但)(遗)(憾)(的)(是)(,市)(场)(缺)(乏)(了)(持)(续)(做)(多)(的)(动)(能)(,股)(市)(始)(终)(未)(能)(够)(有)(效)(收)(复)(3000点)(整)(数)(关)(口)(,反)(而)(在)(一)(轮)(反)(弹)(过)(后)(,再)(度)(遇)(阻)(回)(落)(。至)(于)(有)(着)(先)(行)(指)(标)(之)(称)(的)(创)(业)(板)(市)(场)(,却)(呈)(现)(出)(更)(为)(疲)(软)(的)(表)(现)(,且)(有)(再)(度)(考)(验)(近)(年)(来)(调)(整)(新)(低)(的)(趋)(向)(。
截)(至)(今)(年)(7月)(30日)(,沪)(深)(市)(场)(主)(要)(指)(数)(的)(平)(均)(市)(盈)(率)(基)(本)(上)(保)(持)(在)(一)(个)(比)(较)(安)(全)(的)(投)(资)(区)(域)(。具)(体)(而)(言)(,上)(证)(平)(均)(市)(盈)(率)(14.19倍)(、深)(证)(平)(均)(市)(盈)(率)(24.66倍)(。至)(于)(中)(小)(创)(业)(板)(,其)(平)(均)(市)(盈)(率)(则)(分)(别)(录)(得)(28.85倍)(和)(39.05倍)(。
实)(际)(上)(,与)(海)(外)(成)(熟)(市)(场)(相)(比)(,如)(今)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(平)(均)(市)(盈)(率)(水)(平)(也)(逐)(渐)(展)(现)(出)(一)(定)(的)(估)(值)(优)(势)(。其)(中)(,截)(至)(目)(前)(,道)(琼)(斯)(指)(数)(平)(均)(市)(盈)(率)(约)(为)(30.2倍)(、纳)(斯)(达)(克)(指)(数)(平)(均)(市)(盈)(率)(约)(为)(35.5倍)(。至)(于)(港)(股)(恒)(生)(指)(数)(的)(平)(均)(市)(盈)(率)(约)(为)(12倍)(。
从)(总)(体)(上)(分)(析)(,A股)(市)(场)(作)(为)(一)(个)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(,其)(本)(身)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(已)(较)(美)(股)(市)(场)(便)(宜)(,而)(以)(上)(证)(为)(代)(表)(的)(市)(场)(指)(数)(,尤)(其)(是)(上)(证)(50、沪)(深)(300的)(平)(均)(市)(盈)(率)(水)(平)(,也)(已)(基)(本)(上)(接)(近)(港)(股)(恒)(指)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(。但)(是)(,就)(市)(场)(估)(值)(中)(位)(数)(来)(看)(,还)(是)(存)(在)(着)(或)(多)(或)(少)(的)(距)(离)(。不)(过)(,经)(过)(了)(这)(些)(年)(轰)(轰)(烈)(烈)(的)(去)(杠)(杆)(化)(、去)(泡)(沫)(化)(过)(程)(之)(后)(,A股)(市)(场)(的)(估)(值)(压)(力)(已)(经)(大)(幅)(压)(缩)(,且)(逐)(渐)(展)(现)(出)(估)(值)(优)(势)(的)(一)(面)(。
从)(估)(值)(状)(态)(的)(角)(度)(出)(发)(,A股)(市)(场)(已)(经)(处)(于)(相)(对)(安)(全)(的)(状)(态)(。但)(是)(,与)(美)(股)(等)(成)(熟)(市)(场)(相)(比)(,A股)(市)(场)(的)(根)(基)(地)(位)(仍)(不)(够)(牢)(固)(,而)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(与)(高)(度)(成)(熟)(的)(市)(场)(环)(境)(依)(旧)(存)(在)(着)(不)(少)(的)(距)(离)(。
与)(相)(对)(安)(全)(的)(投)(资)(区)(域)(相)(比)(,绝)(对)(安)(全)(区)(域)(往)(往)(意)(味)(着)(市)(场)(的)(投)(资)(风)(险)(几)(乎)(完)(全)(消)(除)(,且)(不)(存)(在)(黑)(天)(鹅)(等)(风)(险)(的)(持)(续)(冲)(击)(。在)(此)(区)(域)(上)(,投)(资)(者)(放)(心)(投)(资)(将)(会)(获)(得)(可)(预)(期)(的)(超)(额)(投)(资)(回)(报)(率)(。
从)(实)(际)(情)(况)(下)(,虽)(然)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(估)(值)(优)(势)(已)(得)(到)(逐)(渐)(体)(现)(,但)(股)(票)(市)(场)(仍)(然)(存)(在)(着)(局)(部)(性)(的)(投)(资)(风)(险)(。例)(如)(,以)(整)(个)(金)(融)(市)(场)(环)(境)(为)(例)(,目)(前)(国)(内)(金)(融)(市)(场)(仍)(处)(于)(轰)(轰)(烈)(烈)(的)(去)(杠)(杆)(化)(过)(程)(,而)(之)(前)(还)(从)(资)(金)(端)(去)(杠)(杆)(逐)(渐)(扩)(展)(至)(资)(产)(端)(去)(杠)(杆)(。再)(者)(,近)(年)(来)(A股)(市)(场)(黑)(天)(鹅)(事)(件)(不)(断)(,且)(黑)(天)(鹅)(风)(波)(的)(冲)(击)(影)(响)(,不)(仅)(仅)(影)(响)(到)(某)(一)(上)(市)(公)(司)(,而)(且)(还)(会)(牵)(涉)(到)(整)(个)(市)(场)(板)(块)(,从)(而)(引)(发)(局)(部)(性)(恐)(慌)(杀)(跌)(效)(应)(。此)(外)(,则)(是)(市)(场)(不)(定)(期)(上)(演)(局)(部)(流)(动)(性)(危)(机)(、上)(市)(公)(司)(现)(金)(流)(危)(机)(、政)(策)(舆)(论)(风)(波)(等)(,而)(这)(系)(列)(情)(况)(的)(发)(生)(,实)(际)(上)(也)(会)(给)(市)(场)(构)(成)(不)(少)(的)(心)(理)(包)(袱)(,同)(时)(也)(恰)(恰)(体)(现)(出)(当)(下)(市)(场)(“放)(大)(利)(空)(,缩)(小)(利)(好)(”的)(真)(实)(写)(照)(。
2800点)(附)(近)(的)(A股)(市)(场)(,可)(以)(称)(得)(上)(相)(对)(安)(全)(的)(投)(资)(区)(域)(,但)(仍)(然)(不)(能)(够)(称)(为)(绝)(对)(安)(全)(区)(域)(,终)(究)(市)(场)(不)(确)(定)(因)(素)(、局)(部)(性)(风)(险)(仍)(然)(存)(在)(,而)(这)(系)(列)(因)(素)(同)(样)(给)(低)(估)(值)(的)(市)(场)(环)(境)(带)(来)(不)(少)(的)(冲)(击)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,需)(要)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,在)(汇)(率)(波)(动)(、贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(背)(景)(下)(,实)(际)(上)(仍)(需)(要)(警)(惕)(对)(上)(市)(公)(司)(的)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(构)(成)(冲)(击)(影)(响)(,部)(分)(上)(市)(公)(司)(难)(免)(会)(存)(在)(价)(值)(重)(估)(的)(风)(险)(,由)(此)(影)(响)(到)(整)(体)(市)(场)(的)(估)(值)(体)(系)(。
从)(市)(场)(指)(数)(的)(历)(史)(运)(行)(趋)(势)(来)(看)(,如)(果)(说)(2800点)(附)(近)(属)(于)(相)(对)(安)(全)(的)(投)(资)(区)(域)(,那)(么)(对)(于)(2600点)(附)(近)(或)(许)(应)(该)(可)(以)(称)(得)(上)(绝)(对)(安)(全)(区)(域)(。但)(,需)(要)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,对)(于)(时)(下)(的)(A股)(市)(场)(,却)(有)(着)(港)(股)(化)(的)(趋)(势)(,部)(分)(权)(重)(股)(的)(表)(现)(足)(以)(影)(响)(到)(整)(个)(市)(场)(指)(数)(的)(运)(行)(状)(况)(,并)(由)(此)(加)(剧)(了)(市)(场)(指)(数)(的)(失)(真)(效)(应)(。由)(此)(一)(来)(,面)(对)(指)(数)(相)(对)(失)(真)(的)(大)(背)(景)(,实)(际)(上)(多)(数)(股)(票)(价)(格)(早)(已)(跌)(破)(了)(2638低)(点)(水)(平)(,即)(使)(未)(来)(市)(场)(触)(碰)(到)(2600乃)(至)(2700点)(区)(域)(,也)(可)(能)(是)(市)(场)(指)(数)(的)(绝)(对)(安)(全)(,而)(个)(股)(投)(资)(风)(险)(依)(旧)(不)(少)(。或)(许)(,这)(也)(是)(未)(来)(A股)(市)(场)(运)(行)(发)(展)(的)(真)(实)(写)(照)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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