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港媒称内地青年买房透支十年购买力

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月26日 02:00:08
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(  参)(考)(消)(息)(网)(4月)(15日)(报)(道)(港)(媒)(称)(,最)(近)(汇)(丰)(银)(行)(发)(布)(的)(调)(查)(报)(告)(显)(示)(,在)(1980年)(到)(2000年)(出)(生)(的)(内)(地)(人)(群)((“千)(禧)(一)(代)(”)中)(,住)(房)(拥)(有)(率)(达)(到)(70%,远)(远)(高)(于)(其)(他)(国)(家)(,也)(高)(于)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(发)(展)(几)(百)(年)(的)(发)(达)(国)(家)(。这)(对)(中)(国)(政)(府)(来)(说)(,是)(值)(得)(观)(察)(与)(思)(考)(的)(问)(题)(。
  透)(支)(未)(来)(十)(年)(消)(费)(需)(求)(
  据)(《香)(港)(商)(报)(》网)(站)(4月)(14日)(报)(道)(,汇)(丰)(调)(查)(了)(9个)(国)(家)(共)(9000名)(“千)(禧)(一)(代)(”,结)(果)(显)(示)(,相)(关)(人)(群)(的)(住)(房)(拥)(有)(率)(平)(均)(为)(40%,其)(中)(中)(国)(最)(高)(为)(70%;而)(比)(中)(国)(富)(裕)(发)(达)(的)(国)(家)(如)(法)(国)(为)(41%,美)(国)(为)(35%,英)(国)(为)(31%,澳)(大)(利)(亚)(为)(28%,沙)(特)(阿)(拉)(伯)(为)(26%。也)(就)(是)(说)(,大)(部)(分)(国)(家)(的)(年)(轻)(人)(住)(房)(拥)(有)(率)(不)(到)(一)(半)(,远)(低)(于)(中)(国)((内)(地)()的)(比)(例)(。事)(实)(上)(,这)(个)(年)(龄)(段)(的)(内)(地)(年)(轻)(人)(在)(一)(线)(城)(市)(拥)(有)(两)(套)(以)(上)(住)(房)(的)(人)(也)(不)(在)(少)(数)(,同)(时)(,购)(买)(住)(房)(由)(家)(庭)(帮)(助)(的)(比)(例)(也)(达)(到)(40%以)(上)(,比)(率)(也)(远)(超)(其)(他)(发)(达)(国)(家)(。
  报)(道)(称)(,从)(内)(地)(的)(人)(口)(结)(构)(来)(说)(,1980年)(至)(2000年)(这)(个)(年)(龄)(段)(的)(人)(口)(大)(概)(在)(2.7亿)(左)(右)(,如)(果)(城)(市)(化)(率)(50%,这)(个)(年)(龄)(段)(年)(轻)(人)(的)(住)(房)(拥)(有)(率)(为)(70%,那)(么)(就)(有)(1亿)(以)(上)(这)(个)(年)(龄)(段)(的)(人)(进)(入)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(。如)(果)(住)(房)(是)(居)(住)(消)(费)(,那)(么)(未)(来)(十)(年)(购)(买)(住)(房)(主)(力)(的)(居)(住)(条)(件)(已)(经)(解)(决)(,住)(房)(消)(费)(需)(求)(的)(高)(峰)(已)(经)(过)(去)(。同)(时)(,由)(于)(这)(些)(购)(买)(住)(房)(的)(居)(民)(多)(数)(是)(举)(全)(家)(之)(力)(进)(入)(市)(场)(,其)(未)(来)(十)(年)(消)(费)(需)(求)(的)(购)(买)(力)(严)(重)(透)(支)(,消)(费)(能)(力)(也)(会)(减)(弱)(。此)(外)(,近)(一)(年)(内)(地)(房)(地)(产)(之)(所)(以)(还)(在)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(,并)(非)(政)(府)(一)(直)(在)(强)(调)(所)(谓)(住)(房)(消)(费)(的)(“刚)(性)(需)(求)(”,而)(是)(这)(些)(居)(民)(住)(房)(投)(资)(的)(“刚)(性)(需)(求)(”。
  “刚)(性)(需)(求)(”以)(投)(资)(主)(导)(
  从)(最)(近)(西)(南)(财)(经)(大)(学)(的)(中)(国)(内)(地)(家)(庭)(金)(融)(消)(费)(的)(调)(查)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,目)(前)(内)(地)(城)(镇)(家)(庭)(住)(房)(拥)(有)(率)(达)(到)(90%以)(上)(,而)(拥)(有)(两)(套)(以)(上)(住)(房)(的)(家)(庭)(占)(近)(两)(成)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,如)(果)(这)(些)(住)(房)(都)(是)(让)(居)(民)(居)(住)(,并)(每)(个)(家)(庭)(拥)(有)(一)(套)(住)(房)(,那)(么)(住)(房)(空)(置)(率)(都)(会)(达)(10%以)(上)(。所)(以)(,当)(前)(不)(少)(居)(民)(还)(在)(涌)(入)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(,估)(计)(仍)(然)(是)(以)(投)(资)(为)(主)(导)(,因)(为)(他)(们)(仍)(然)(相)(信)(内)(地)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(价)(格)(只)(会)(上)(涨)(而)(不)(会)(下)(跌)(。
  报)(道)(称)(,内)(地)(居)(民)(尤)(其)(是)(“千)(禧)(一)(代)(”之)(所)(以)(都)(会)(涌)(入)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(投)(资)(,就)(在)(于)(这)(十)(几)(年)(住)(房)(投)(资)(让)(其)(财)(富)(增)(长)(达)(340%以)(上)(,但)(他)(们)(所)(持)(财)(富)(有)(92%来)(自)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(,如)(果)(不)(算)(住)(房)(,其)(他)(金)(融)(资)(产)(很)(小)(。同)(时)(,从)(这)(些)(现)(象)(看)(出)(还)(有)(以)(下)(几)(个)(问)(题)(值)(得)(关)(注)(。首)(先)(,内)(地)(居)(民)(财)(富)(的)(增)(长)(基)(本)(上)(是)(靠)(住)(房)(的)(升)(值)(,如)(果)(没)(有)(这)(十)(几)(年)(内)(地)(住)(房)(过)(度)(升)(值)(,那)(么)(内)(地)(许)(多)(居)(民)(财)(富)(持)(有)(量)(十)(分)(有)(限)(。因)(此)(,如)(何)(参)(与)(住)(房)(投)(资)(,特)(别)(是)(利)(用)(高)(杠)(杆)(进)(行)(住)(房)(投)(资)(,成)(了)(这)(些)(居)(民)(财)(富)(增)(长)(的)(一)(条)(路)(,但)(实)(际)(的)(情)(况)(并)(非)(如)(此)(,金)(融)(市)(场)(投)(资)(机)(会)(还)(是)(有)(很)(多)(。
  其)(次)(,当)(前)(不)(少)(城)(市)(的)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(之)(所)(以)(还)(在)(疯)(狂)(,价)(格)(还)(在)(暴)(涨)(,并)(非)(与)(居)(民)(所)(谓)(的)(住)(房)(消)(费)(“刚)(性)(需)(求)(”有)(关)(,而)(是)(与)(这)(些)(居)(民)(预)(期)(住)(房)(的)(价)(格)(未)(来)(还)(会)(上)(涨)(及)(他)(们)(要)(利)(用)(金)(融)(杠)(杆)(进)(入)(市)(场)(有)(关)(。只)(要)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(政)(策)(没)(有)(波)(及)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,他)(们)(就)(会)(跟)(其)(闻)(鸡)(起)(舞)(下)(去)(。三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(疯)(狂)(还)(会)(向)(下)(蔓)(延)(,不)(过)(,也)(正)(是)(这)(样)(,不)(少)(投)(资)(者)(可)(能)(会)(在)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(投)(资)(中)(遇)(到)(风)(险)(。
  再)(者)(,由)(于)(内)(地)(的)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(是)(一)(个)(政)(策)(市)(,住)(房)(投)(资)(者)(的)(输)(赢)(完)(全)(取)(决)(于)(出)(台)(什)(么)(政)(策)(,并)(非)(来)(自)(个)(人)(投)(资)(决)(策)(判)(断)(。十)(几)(年)(来)(,许)(多)(住)(房)(投)(资)(者)(之)(所)(以)(是)(常)(胜)(将)(军)(,就)(在)(于)(相)(信)(政)(府)(不)(会)(让)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(,相)(信)(政)(府)(会)(托)(住)(市)(场)(的)(价)(格)(。事)(实)(上)(,近)(十)(几)(年)(来)(的)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(确)(实)(没)(有)(让)(住)(房)(投)(资)(者)(失)(望)(。
  “政)(策)(焦)(虑)(症)(”日)(益)(明)(显)(
  报)(道)(称)(,不)(过)(,从)(2016年)(中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(以)(来)(,住)(房)(投)(资)(者)(看)(到)(政)(府)(的)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(政)(策)(基)(调)(有)(所)(变)(化)(,而)(出)(台)(的)(政)(策)(一)(步)(比)(一)(步)(紧)(,一)(城)(比)(一)(城)(紧)(,甚)(至)(于)(有)(些)(城)(市)(的)(调)(控)(政)(策)(不)(仅)(要)(遏)(制)(房)(价)(再)(上)(涨)(,而)(且)(还)(要)(求)(停)(止)(未)(来)(几)(年)(的)(住)(房)(交)(易)(。因)(此)(,对)(于)(“千)(禧)(一)(代)(”这)(批)(住)(房)(投)(资)(者)(来)(说)(,住)(房)(投)(资)(“政)(策)(焦)(虑)(症)(”油)(然)(而)(生)(。
  首)(先)(,他)(们)(会)(担)(心)(对)(内)(地)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(重)(新)(定)(位)(,不)(知)(道)(政)(府)(未)(来)(还)(有)(哪)(些)(政)(策)(工)(具)(会)(出)(台)(以)(及)(出)(台)(后)(对)(市)(场)(又)(会)(产)(生)(什)(么)(样)(的)(影)(响)(。此)(外)(,当)(前)(的)(许)(多)(住)(房)(投)(资)(者)(还)(会)(担)(心)(已)(经)(出)(台)(的)(调)(控)(政)(策)(会)(不)(会)(再)(加)(码)(以)(及)(会)(持)(续)(多)(久)(,未)(来)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(又)(会)(发)(生)(什)(么)(样)(的)(变)(化)(。再)(者)(,即)(使)(是)(目)(前)(还)(没)(有)(出)(台)(调)(控)(政)(策)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,他)(们)(也)(不)(知)(道)(房)(价)(涨)(到)(什)(么)(程)(度)(时)(也)(会)(出)(台)(调)(控)(政)(策)(,其)(调)(控)(政)(策)(力)(度)(如)(何)(又)(会)(造)(成)(什)(么)(影)(响)(。
  报)(道)(称)(,对)(于)(内)(地)(的)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(住)(房)(投)(资)(者)(来)(说)(,他)(们)(都)(没)(有)(经)(历)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(的)(周)(期)(性)(调)(整)(,更)(没)(有)(经)(历)(房)(价)(下)(跌)(是)(什)(么)(态)(势)(,特)(别)(是)(没)(有)(经)(历)(过)(内)(地)(这)(种)(以)(投)(资)(为)(主)(导)(的)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(、房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(吹)(得)(巨)(大)(的)(市)(场)(转)(型)(时)(市)(场)(和)(投)(资)(者)(是)(如)(何)(反)(映)(的)(。所)(以)(,这)(些)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(者)(的)(“政)(策)(焦)(虑)(症)(”,可)(能)(会)(随)(着)(更)(多)(的)(城)(市)(出)(台)(调)(控)(政)(策)(而)(变)(得)(更)(为)(明)(显)(。
  报)(道)(称)(,当)(然)(,当)(前)(这)(些)(年)(轻)(的)(住)(房)(投)(资)(者)(更)(焦)(虑)(的)(是)(,他)(们)(的)(住)(房)(投)(资)(是)(不)(是)(接)(了)(最)(后)(一)(棒)(并)(严)(重)(套)(牢)(,因)(为)(未)(来)(房)(地)(产)(政)(策)(不)(确)(定)(性)(及)(货)(币)(政)(策)(不)(确)(定)(性)(将)(是)(一)(种)(常)(态)(。对)(此)(,这)(些)(年)(轻)(的)(住)(房)(投)(资)(者)(更)(加)(谨)(慎)(。
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