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许维鸿:股指期货的“紧箍咒”该松一松了

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月16日 18:10:15
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(  作)(者)(许)(维)(鸿)((中)(航)(证)(券)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(、中)(新)(经)(纬)(特)(约)(专)(家)()
  近)(日)(,有)(媒)(体)(报)(道)(股)(指)(期)(货)(将)(要)(松)(绑)(。中)(国)(金)(融)(期)(货)(交)(易)(所)(回)(应)(表)(示)(:中)(金)(所)(一)(直)(在)(研)(究)(论)(证)(相)(关)(工)(作)(,促)(使)(股)(指)(期)(货)(发)(挥)(积)(极)(的)(市)(场)(功)(能)(。
  2015年)(股)(市)(剧)(烈)(震)(荡)(中)(,股)(指)(期)(货)(被)(认)(为)(曾)(对)(股)(票)(行)(情)(的)(波)(动)(起)(到)(了)(推)(波)(助)(澜)(的)(作)(用)(,随)(后)(期)(指)(被)(采)(取)(限)(仓)(等)(一)(系)(列)(“最)(严)(”限)(制)(措)(施)(。不)(过)(,股)(指)(期)(货)(作)(为)(资)(本)(市)(场)(重)(要)(的)(风)(险)(管)(理)(工)(具)(,其)(作)(用)(不)(可)(或)(缺)(。而)(股)(指)(期)(货)(对)(股)(市)(的)(作)(用)(也)(应)(客)(观)(、全)(面)(认)(识)(,股)(指)(期)(货)(在)(改)(革)(阶)(段)(利)(大)(于)(弊)(,套)(在)(股)(指)(期)(货)(头)(上)(的)(“紧)(箍)(咒)(”也)(是)(时)(候)(该)(松)(一)(松)(了)(。
  中)(国)(的)(股)(指)(期)(货)(交)(易)(始)(于)(2010年)(4月)(,标)(志)(着)(中)(国)(股)(票)(市)(场)(的)(金)(融)(衍)(生)(工)(具)(交)(易)(进)(入)(了)(新)(时)(代)(。在)(经)(济)(全)(球)(化)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,跨)(境)(的)(资)(本)(流)(动)(使)(得)(金)(融)(市)(场)(波)(动)(越)(发)(剧)(烈)(,没)(有)(衍)(生)(品)(的)(金)(融)(市)(场)(对)(于)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(而)(言)(,意)(味)(着)(流)(动)(性)(脆)(弱)(、风)(险)(敞)(口)(过)(大)(。因)(此)(,在)(散)(户)(交)(易)(依)(然)(占)(据)(主)(体)(的)(A股)(市)(场)(,股)(指)(期)(货)(稳)(步)(推)(出)(后)(的)(相)(当)(长)(时)(间)(内)(,起)(到)(了)(增)(加)(资)(本)(市)(场)(风)(险)(管)(理)(手)(段)(的)(作)(用)(,提)(升)(了)(股)(票)(市)(场)(的)(流)(动)(性)(,总)(体)(上)(有)(利)(于)(市)(场)(风)(险)(管)(理)(能)(力)(的)(提)(升)(,市)(场)(功)(能)(得)(以)(更)(充)(分)(的)(发)(挥)(。
  股)(指)(期)(货)(之)(所)(以)(能)(在)(市)(场)(上)(发)(挥)(稳)(定)(器)(的)(作)(用)(,与)(不)(同)(投)(资)(者)(交)(易)(博)(弈)(的)(格)(局)(密)(切)(相)(关)(。中)(国)(股)(票)(市)(场)(散)(户)(比)(例)(较)(大)(,绝)(大)(部)(分)(个)(人)(投)(资)(者)(吃)(了)(“信)(息)(不)(对)(称)(”的)(亏)(,在)(股)(票)(投)(资)(中)(赚)(少)(赔)(多)(。个)(别)(机)(构)(变)(相)(操)(纵)(市)(场)(,带)(来)(股)(市)(“羊)(群)(效)(应)(”十)(分)(普)(遍)(,进)(一)(步)(加)(大)(了)(市)(场)(波)(动)(。股)(指)(期)(货)(的)(最)(大)(功)(效)(在)(于)(,专)(业)(金)(融)(机)(构)(通)(过)(股)(指)(期)(货)(对)(手)(中)(的)(股)(票)(现)(货)(进)(行)(套)(期)(保)(值)(,配)(合)(资)(金)(成)(本)(管)(理)(,实)(现)(股)(票)(市)(场)(投)(资)(行)(为)(的)(“机)(构)(化)(”,这)(有)(助)(于)(完)(善)(股)(市)(的)(内)(在)(稳)(定)(机)(制)(。同)(时)(,金)(融)(衍)(生)(品)(恰)(恰)(为)(金)(融)(投)(机)(找)(到)(了)(“宣)(泄)(口)(”,进)(而)(为)(股)(票)(现)(货)(市)(场)(吸)(引)(增)(量)(资)(金)(,对)(于)(扩)(大)(股)(票)(市)(场)(规)(模)(利)(大)(于)(弊)(。
  “十)(三)(五)(”是)(中)(国)(深)(化)(改)(革)(的)(关)(键)(期)(,需)(要)(现)(代)(金)(融)(的)(支)(持)(,而)(股)(票)(市)(场)(是)(最)(典)(型)(的)(直)(接)(融)(资)(平)(台)(,对)(于)(改)(善)(社)(会)(融)(资)(结)(构)(具)(有)(无)(可)(替)(代)(的)(战)(略)(意)(义)(。一)(个)(良)(性)(发)(展)(的)(金)(融)(市)(场)(,必)(须)(客)(观)(看)(待)(投)(机)(与)(投)(资)(的)(关)(系)(,专)(业)(监)(管)(下)(的)(投)(机)(交)(易)(对)(市)(场)(利)(大)(于)(弊)(、应)(该)(鼓)(励)(。中)(国)(的)(股)(指)(期)(货)(容)(纳)(了)(“合)(法)(”的)(投)(机)(交)(易)(,为)(机)(构)(长)(期)(持)(有)(A股)(、扩)(大)(股)(票)(持)(有)(规)(模)(提)(供)(了)(交)(易)(的)(避)(险)(“资)(产)(+资)(金)(池)(子)(”。市)(场)(应)(该)(担)(心)(的)(真)(正)(风)(险)(,并)(不)(在)(于)(期)(货)(投)(机)(者)(的)(交)(易)(动)(机)(和)(规)(模)(,而)(是)(如)(何)(能)(做)(到)(现)(货)(、期)(货)(市)(场)(相)(互)(协)(调)(的)(科)(学)(监)(管)(,以)(及)(各)(个)(机)(构)(合)(理)(的)(风)(险)(披)(露)(。
  除)(了)(理)(清)(投)(机)(与)(投)(资)(的)(作)(用)(,另)(一)(个)(需)(要)(监)(管)(者)(和)(投)(资)(者)(客)(观)(认)(识)(的)(就)(是)(“做)(多)(”与)(“做)(空)(”交)(易)(的)(关)(系)(。金)(融)(市)(场)(有)(涨)(有)(跌)(,A股)(投)(资)(者)(以)(散)(户)(为)(主)(,虽)(然)(明)(明)(知)(道)(不)(可)(能)(,个)(人)(投)(资)(者)(在)(实)(践)(中)(往)(往)(都)(希)(望)(股)(市)(“只)(涨)(不)(跌)(”(其)(实)(未)(必)(是)(好)(事)()。2015年)(的)(股)(市)(剧)(烈)(波)(动)(,恰)(恰)(给)(我)(们)(上)(了)(生)(动)(的)(一)(课)(,依)(靠)(金)(融)(杠)(杆)(催)(生)(的)(“虚)(胖)(”牛)(市)(,在)(“去)(杠)(杆)(”时)(的)(下)(跌)(就)(会)(更)(加)(惨)(烈)(和)(痛)(苦)(。相)(反)(,为)(市)(场)(提)(供)(做)(空)(机)(制)(,可)(以)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(避)(免)(股)(市)(的)(非)(理)(性)(上)(涨)(,实)(现)(市)(场)(的)(价)(格)(发)(现)(功)(能)(,最)(终)(有)(效)(平)(衡)(现)(货)(市)(场)(的)(多)(空)(双)(方)(力)(量)(,抑)(制)(股)(市)(的)(“过)(山)(车)(”行)(情)(。对)(于)(个)(股)(而)(言)(,做)(空)(机)(制)(和)(期)(权)(交)(易)(都)(会)(引)(导)(投)(资)(者)(更)(加)(重)(视)(股)(票)(的)(基)(本)(面)(研)(究)(,如)(果)(股)(票)(定)(价)(上)(出)(现)(严)(重)(的)(泡)(沫)(累)(积)(或)(价)(值)(低)(估)(,就)(可)(以)(通)(过)(做)(空)(机)(制)(获)(利)(,从)(微)(观)(上)(降)(低)(了)(市)(场)(剧)(烈)(动)(荡)(的)(风)(险)(。
  可)(见)(,股)(指)(期)(货)(作)(为)(资)(本)(市)(场)(风)(险)(对)(冲)(工)(具)(,对)(维)(护)(市)(场)(平)(稳)(运)(行)(、熨)(平)(经)(济)(风)(险)(的)(重)(要)(性)(。而)(对)(于)(2015年)(股)(市)(异)(动)(期)(间)(估)(值)(期)(货)(的)(作)(用)(,也)(要)(冷)(静)(分)(析)(。
  从)(共)(性)(上)(讲)(,不)(仅)(仅)(是)(中)(国)(,欧)(美)(的)(金)(融)(衍)(生)(工)(具)(市)(场)(,在)(现)(货)(剧)(烈)(涨)(跌)(时)(,也)(都)(会)(起)(到)(推)(波)(助)(澜)(的)(作)(用)(,这)(是)(股)(指)(期)(货)(天)(生)(的)(特)(征)(。归)(根)(到)(底)(,任)(何)(一)(个)(交)(易)(制)(度)(安)(排)(都)(是)(有)(利)(有)(弊)(的)(,股)(指)(期)(货)(在)(改)(革)(阶)(段)(利)(大)(于)(弊)(,功)(效)(不)(可)(以)(一)(概)(而)(论)(。
  从)(个)(性)(来)(说)(,中)(国)(的)(股)(指)(期)(货)(出)(现)(时)(间)(短)(,操)(盘)(手)(都)(是)(七)(零)(后)(、八)(零)(后)(、甚)(至)(是)(九)(零)(后)(,跟)(国)(外)(上)(百)(年)(股)(票)(市)(场)(积)(累)(的)(经)(验)(相)(比)(,交)(些)(波)(动)(性)(的)(学)(费)(也)(是)(正)(常)(;而)(且)(,中)(国)(股)(市)(的)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(结)(构)(单)(一)(,社)(会)(财)(富)(积)(累)(时)(间)(短)(,缺)(少)(欧)(美)(市)(场)(上)(养)(老)(基)(金)(、社)(保)(基)(金)(等)(长)(期)(价)(值)(型)(投)(资)(者)(作)(为)(基)(石)(,境)(外)(投)(资)(机)(构)(和)(私)(募)(基)(金)(的)(比)(例)(也)(很)(低)(,公)(募)(基)(金)(和)(券)(商)(等)(交)(易)(风)(格)(日)(益)(“散)(户)(化)(”,股)(指)(期)(货)(套)(期)(保)(值)(的)(盈)(利)(模)(式)(需)(要)(更)(大)(的)(资)(金)(池)(子)(作)(为)(基)(础)(,这)(是)(中)(国)(金)(融)(改)(革)(最)(应)(该)(着)(力)(解)(决)(的)(瓶)(颈)(问)(题)(。
  针)(对)(市)(场)(结)(构)(失)(衡)(和)(股)(指)(期)(货)(的)(推)(波)(助)(澜)(,证)(监)(会)(、中)(金)(所)(在)(2015年)(后)(陆)(续)(公)(布)(了)(一)(系)(列)(对)(股)(指)(期)(货)(严)(格)(管)(控)(的)(措)(施)(,包)(括)(调)(高)(交)(易)(保)(证)(金)(、提)(高)(手)(续)(费)(、调)(低)(日)(内)(开)(仓)(量)(限)(制)(标)(准)(等)(,为)(股)(指)(期)(货)(戴)(上)(“紧)(箍)(咒)(”,有)(效)(控)(制)(了)(股)(指)(期)(货)(成)(交)(量)(和)(持)(仓)(量)(失)(控)(,也)(算)(是)(积)(累)(了)(正)(反)(两)(方)(面)(经)(验)(。但)(这)(种)(短)(期)(措)(施)(显)(然)(不)(应)(该)(成)(为)(常)(态)(化)(的)(管)(控)(。中)(国)(作)(为)(全)(球)(重)(要)(的)(证)(券)(市)(场)(,新)(股)(入)(市)(和)(定)(向)(增)(发)(的)(股)(票)(供)(给)(不)(断)(增)(加)(,迫)(切)(需)(要)(增)(量)(资)(金)(的)(入)(场)(,特)(别)(是)(大)(市)(值)(蓝)(筹)(股)(的)(流)(动)(性)(提)(升)(,进)(而)(推)(动)(更)(多)(社)(会)(资)(本)(进)(入)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”、国)(有)(企)(业)(混)(合)(所)(有)(制)(、军)(民)(融)(合)(、中)(国)(制)(造)(2025等)(战)(略)(型)(行)(业)(。
  综)(上)(所)(述)(,如)(何)(在)(科)(学)(、合)(理)(的)(监)(管)(体)(系)(下)(,通)(过)(股)(指)(期)(货)(为)(代)(表)(的)(金)(融)(衍)(生)(品)(市)(场)(,助)(力)(股)(市)(脱)(虚)(入)(实)(、真)(正)(把)(资)(本)(引)(向)(国)(家)(改)(革)(最)(需)(要)(的)(领)(域)(,是)(这)(一)(代)(金)(融)(从)(业)(人)(员)(必)(须)(要)(面)(对)(的)(挑)(战)(。
  【专)(家)(简)(介)(】许)(维)(鸿)(,中)(航)(证)(券)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(,曾)(就)(职)(于)(英)(国)(路)(透)(集)(团)(、中)(央)(国)(债)(登)(记)(结)(算)(公)(司)(、法)(国)(外)(贸)(银)(行)(集)(团)(巴)(黎)(总)(部)(。长)(期)(从)(事)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(和)(金)(融)(市)(场)(研)(究)(,研)(究)(领)(域)(涉)(及)(国)(际)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(、国)(际)(化)(背)(景)(下)(的)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(发)(展)(模)(式)(等)(。
  (欢)(迎)(转)(载)(,注)(明)(来)(源)(“中)(新)(经)(纬)(”,即)(视)(为)(已)(获)(转)(载)(授)(权)(。本)(文)(不)(代)(表)(中)(新)(经)(纬)(观)(点)(。)
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