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抄底系列之:新城发展控股(1030.HK)一个月上涨60%的逻辑,变没变

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年12月13日 05:23:07
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新宝3代理开户平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ/微信【421618535】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。抄底系列之:新城发展控股(1030.HK)一个月上涨60%的逻辑,变没变

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(其)(中)(,银)(行)(、保)(险)(、地)(产)(这)(几)(个)(浓)(眉)(大)(眼)(的)(蓝)(筹)(大)(盘)(,跌)(起)(来)(也)(是)(毫)(不)(顾)(及)(自)(己)(流)(动)(性)(好)(、盘)(子)(大)(的)(身)(份)(,在)(突)(然)(而)(至)(的)(卖)(单)(前)(,流)(动)(性)(瞬)(间)(枯)(竭)(,没)(想)(到)(竟)(如)(此)(脆)(弱)(。
市)(场)(研)(究)(员)(纷)(纷)(找)(原)(因)(,理)(由)(众)(说)(纷)(纭)(,但)(基)(本)(的)(共)(识)(有)(几)(点)(,大)(致)(如)(下)(:
此)(轮)(快)(速)(的)(大)(跌)(导)(火)(索)(是)(美)(股)(大)(跌)(,过)(去)(几)(年)(美)(股)(在)(低)(波)(动)(率)(背)(景)(下)(,屡)(创)(新)(高)(。而)(且)(,计)(算)(机)(技)(术)(和)(电)(子)(交)(易)(的)(快)(速)(发)(展)(,美)(股)(程)(序)(化)(自)(动)(交)(易)(占)(比)(超)(过)(90%,在)(突)(然)(的)(下)(跌)(后)(,触)(发)(机)(构)(自)(动)(化)(交)(易)(卖)(出)(,使)(得)(市)(场)(出)(现)(踩)(踏)(式)(下)(跌)(。
而)(国)(内)(还)(是)(存)(量)(市)(场)(,机)(构)(化)(程)(度)(也)(在)(不)(断)(提)(升)(,资)(金)(偏)(好)(就)(是)(白)(马)(蓝)(筹)(,最)(后)(扎)(堆)(在)(这)(些)(大)(金)(融)(板)(块)(个)(股)(中)(,演)(绎)(了)(去)(年)(极)(端)(的)(一)(九)(分)(化)(行)(情)(。
加)(上)(国)(内)(又)(处)(于)(去)(杠)(杆)(,银)(行)(理)(财)(,信)(托)(等)(资)(金)(都)(在)(收)(缩)(。在)(内)(外)(环)(境)(夹)(击)(下)(,机)(构)(资)(金)(开)(始)(出)(逃)(,最)(后)(又)(引)(发)(踩)(踏)(式)(出)(逃)(。
所)(以)(,基)(本)(上)(找)(到)(的)(原)(因)(都)(是)(资)(金)(面)(上)(紧)(张)(,引)(发)(了)(出)(逃)(踩)(踏)(。那)(么)(换)(一)(个)(说)(法)(就)(是)(,大)(多)(数)(市)(场)(人)(士)(的)(共)(识)(是)(公)(司)(基)(本)(面)(是)(没)(问)(题)(的)(。
一)(个)(月)(前)(的)(公)(司)(还)(是)(那)(家)(公)(司)(,无)(论)(是)(基)(本)(面)(,成)(长)(性)(都)(在)(那)(里)(,并)(没)(有)(发)(生)(根)(本)(性)(的)(转)(变)(。而)(且)(导)(火)(索)(美)(股)(下)(跌)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(是)(自)(身)(的)(估)(值)(已)(经)(处)(于)(历)(史)(高)(位)(,其)(下)(跌)(本)(身)(就)(会)(有)(底)(线)(,更)(何)(况)(跟)(跌)(的)(港)(股)(和)(A股)(估)(值)(并)(不)(高)(。
市)(场)(先)(生)(的)(情)(绪)(波)(动)(有)(时)(是)(极)(端)(的)(,在)(暴)(跌)(或)(者)(暴)(涨)(,都)(应)(该)(保)(持)(理)(性)(,而)(不)(是)(置)(身)(于)(其)(中)(追)(涨)(杀)(跌)(。在)(过)(去)(基)(本)(面)(完)(好)(,上)(涨)(逻)(辑)(还)(存)(在)(的)(股)(票)(,股)(价)(的)(下)(跌)(只)(是)(让)(其)(变)(得)(更)(加)(便)(宜)(,更)(加)(吸)(引)(人)(。
在)(泥)(沙)(俱)(下)(的)(时)(候)(,需)(要)(的)(是)(明)(辨)(价)(值)(的)(眼)(光)(,暴)(跌)(中)(变)(的)(不)(是)(基)(本)(面)(,变)(的)(是)(人)(心)(,坚)(守)(价)(值)(才)(是)(在)(市)(场)(安)(身)(立)(命)(的)(不)(二)(法)(门)(,在)(暴)(跌)(之)(际)(,一)(同)(寻)(找)(市)(场)(的)(馈)(赠)(。
二)(、单)(月)(涨)(近)(60%逻)(辑)(还)(在)(不)(在)(?
新)(城)(发)(展)(是)(一)(家)(A+H双)(平)(台)(,2001以)(“B股)(”形)(式)(上)(市)(,2012年)(在)(香)(港)(上)(市)(,最)(近)(2015年)("B转)(A"正)(式)(登)(陆)(A股)(。目)(前)(港)(股)(上)(市)(的)(新)(城)(发)(展)(控)(股)((1030.HK)持)(有)(A股)(的)(新)(城)(控)(股)((601155.SH)66.1%的)(股)(权)(,公)(司)(实)(际)(控)(制)(人)(王)(振)(华)(通)(持)(有)(新)(城)(发)(展)(控)(股)(72.56%,间)(接)(控)(股)(了)(新)(城)(控)(股)(。
下)(图)(是)(新)(城)(发)(展)(控)(股)(和)(新)(城)(控)(股)(最)(近)(的)(股)(价)(K线)(图)(。我)(们)(看)(到)(新)(城)(发)(展)(控)(股)((1030.HK)今)(年)(1月)(份)(全)(月)(涨)(幅)(为)(57.35%,单)(月)(最)(大)(涨)(幅)(为)(67.96%;新)(城)(控)(股)((601155.SH)同)(期)(涨)(幅)(为)(33.86%,最)(大)(涨)(幅)(为)(57.86%。A、H股)(两)(边)(在)(今)(年)(1月)(单)(月)(都)(涨)(近)(60%,随)(后)(在)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(中)(,裹)(挟)(而)(下)(,大)(幅)(回)(调)(。
那)(么)(过)(去)(新)(城)(能)(单)(月)(涨)(近)(60%的)(逻)(辑)(是)(什)(么)(,变)(了)(还)(是)(没)(变)(呢)(?我)(们)(认)(为)(过)(去)(新)(城)(的)(上)(涨)(逻)(辑)(没)(有)(变)(化)(,新)(城)(股)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(逻)(辑)(如)(下)(:
1、高)(周)(转)(保)(高)(速)(成)(长)(
2、龙)(头)(激)(发)(的)(估)(值)(重)(估)(
1、高)(周)(转)(保)(高)(速)(成)(长)(
2、龙)(头)(激)(发)(的)(估)(值)(重)(估)(
1、高)(周)(转)(确)(保)(高)(速)(成)(长)(
新)(城)(发)(展)(不)(是)(一)(家)(存)(粹)(的)(住)(宅)(开)(发)(商)(,企)(业)(实)(行)(的)(是)(“住)(宅)(+商)(业)(”地)(产)(双)(轮)(驱)(动)(运)(作)(模)(式)(。商)(业)(综)(合)(体)(相)(关)(的)(业)(务)(虽)(然)(也)(是)(开)(发)(与)(销)(售)(,但)(是)(占)(到)(了)(4成)(的)(营)(收)(。不)(过)(最)(主)(要)(的)(住)(宅)(开)(发)(依)(然)(是)(主)(营)(,占)(到)(总)(营)(收)(近)(6成)(。
对)(于)(住)(宅)(类)(开)(发)(的)(业)(务)(,周)(转)(速)(度)(不)(单)(单)(决)(定)(了)(企)(业)(的)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(,更)(是)(企)(业)(的)(生)(命)(线)(,一)(家)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(周)(转)(快)(不)(快)(就)(是)(看)(它)(销)(售)(好)(不)(好)(。
新)(城)(发)(展)(去)(年)(一)(举)(突)(破)(1000亿)(门)(槛)(,在)(二)(线)(蓝)(筹)(中)(也)(位)(于)(前)(列)(,增)(速)(上)(保)(持)(加)(速)(,2017年)(销)(售)(金)(额)(同)(比)(增)(长)(94.39%。近)(期)(公)(司)(公)(布)(了)(一)(月)(份)(主)(要)(业)(绩)(指)(标)(,销)(售)(延)(续)(了)(去)(年)(以)(来)(的)(高)(增)(长)(,销)(售)(金)(额)(达)(到)(102.8亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(速)(达)(到)(110.2%,实)(现)(了)(公)(司)(2018年)(销)(售)(的)(开)(门)(红)(。
强)(销)(售)(带)(动)(了)(新)(城)(的)(快)(速)(周)(转)(,上)(面)(为)(新)(城)(的)(库)(存)(周)(转)(情)(况)(,当)(年)(的)(销)(售)(是)(完)(全)(可)(以)(覆)(盖)(去)(年)(剩)(余)(的)(库)(存)(的)(。上)(图)(中)(的)(库)(存)(周)(转)(率)(=当)(年)(销)(售)(面)(积)(/(前)(年)(年)(末)(可)(供)(出)(售)(面)(积)(+前)(年)(年)(末)(在)(建)(面)(积)(),可)(见)(新)(城)(发)(展)(的)(库)(存)(周)(转)(率)(一)(直)(保)(持)(在)(50%附)(近)(。
通)(过)(简)(单)(测)(算)(,按)(照)(新)(城)(的)(开)(发)(速)(度)(,年)(末)(的)(在)(建)(面)(积)(大)(约)(有)(7-8成)(能)(完)(成)(开)(发)(成)(可)(售)(面)(积)(。许)(多)(在)(售)(项)(目)(从)(拿)(地)(到)(开)(盘)(的)(时)(间)(间)(隔)(均)(在)(一)(年)(以)(内)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(如)(果)(去)(年)(的)(土)(储)(不)(开)(工)(,按)(照)(目)(前)(的)(增)(速)(,新)(城)(半)(年)(左)(右)(就)(能)(把)(库)(存)(卖)(光)(。
公)(司)(实)(行)(快)(周)(转)(策)(略)(得)(以)(成)(功)(的)(原)(因)(有)(几)(个)(:
1)踩)(点)(精)(准)(,新)(城)(以)(“上)(海)(为)(中)(枢)(、长)(三)(角)(为)(核)(心)(,向)(珠)(三)(角)(、环)(渤)(海)(及)(中)(西)(部)(地)(区)(扩)(张)(”的)(“1+3”战)(略)(布)(局)(。同)(时)(保)(持)(区)(域)(聚)(焦)(,持)(续)(深)(耕)(长)(三)(角)(区)(域)(。
新)(城)(发)(展)(占)(比)(最)(大)(的)(地)(区)(为)(江)(苏)(、山)(东)(和)(浙)(江)(。受)(到)(一)(线)(城)(市)(需)(求)(外)(溢)(,和)(经)(济)(区)(域)(化)(影)(响)(,今)(年)(浙)(江)(、江)(苏)(地)(区)(的)(需)(求)(极)(其)(旺)(盛)(。
2)产)(品)(多)(元)(,公)(司)(当)(前)(的)(住)(宅)(产)(品)(分)(为)(四)(大)(系)(列)(,分)(别)(为)(:
a、“启)(航)(”系)(列)(:定)(位)(于)(首)(次)(置)(业)(需)(求)(,一)(般)(位)(于)(城)(市)(外)(围)(和)(郊)(区)(,面)(积)(60-90平)(米)(;b、“乐)(居)(”系)(列)(:定)(位)(于)(家)(庭)(住)(房)(的)(刚)(性)(需)(求)(,一)(般)(位)(于)(城)(郊)(,面)(积)(80-120平)(米)(;
c、“圆)(梦)(”系)(列)(:定)(位)(于)(高)(收)(入)(人)(群)(改)(善)(型)(需)(求)(,位)(于)(城)(市)(核)(心)(区)(域)(,面)(积)(90-180平)(米)(;
d、“尊)(享)(”系)(列)(:定)(位)(于)(高)(净)(值)(人)(群)(改)(善)(型)(需)(求)(,面)(积)(180-430平)(米)(。
在)(2016年)(6月)(推)(出)(高)(端)(住)(宅)(产)(品)(线)(—璞)(樾)(,至)(今)(已)(开)(发)(住)(宅)(小)(区)(100余)(个)(,业)(主)(重)(复)(购)(买)(或)(推)(荐)(购)(置)(率)(超)(40%。
a、“启)(航)(”系)(列)(:定)(位)(于)(首)(次)(置)(业)(需)(求)(,一)(般)(位)(于)(城)(市)(外)(围)(和)(郊)(区)(,面)(积)(60-90平)(米)(;b、“乐)(居)(”系)(列)(:定)(位)(于)(家)(庭)(住)(房)(的)(刚)(性)(需)(求)(,一)(般)(位)(于)(城)(郊)(,面)(积)(80-120平)(米)(;
c、“圆)(梦)(”系)(列)(:定)(位)(于)(高)(收)(入)(人)(群)(改)(善)(型)(需)(求)(,位)(于)(城)(市)(核)(心)(区)(域)(,面)(积)(90-180平)(米)(;
d、“尊)(享)(”系)(列)(:定)(位)(于)(高)(净)(值)(人)(群)(改)(善)(型)(需)(求)(,面)(积)(180-430平)(米)(。
在)(2016年)(6月)(推)(出)(高)(端)(住)(宅)(产)(品)(线)(—璞)(樾)(,至)(今)(已)(开)(发)(住)(宅)(小)(区)(100余)(个)(,业)(主)(重)(复)(购)(买)(或)(推)(荐)(购)(置)(率)(超)(40%。
3)激)(励)(机)(制)(,公)(司)(于)(2016年)(10月)(18日)(公)(布)(了)(第)(一)(期)(限)(制)(性)(股)(票)(激)(励)(计)(划)(,拟)(授)(予)(59名)(激)(励)(对)(象)(合)(计)(4200万)(股)(限)(制)(性)(股)(票)(,占)(激)(励)(计)(划)(公)(告)(日)(公)(司)(股)(本)(总)(额)(的)(1.89%,其)(中)(首)(次)(授)(予)(3850万)(股)(,占)(股)(本)(总)(额)(的)(1.73%。激)(励)(机)(制)(有)(助)(于)(管)(理)(团)(队)(对)(于)(收)(益)(和)(风)(险)(把)(控)(,也)(就)(是)(周)(转)(率)(和)(回)(报)(率)(间)(的)(平)(衡)(。
而)(目)(前)(上)(面)(的)(逻)(辑)(未)(变)(,市)(场)(对)(新)(城)(能)(不)(能)(保)(持)(这)(么)(高)(的)(销)(售)(金)(额)(增)(长)(产)(生)(忧)(虑)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(因)(素)(是)(去)(杠)(杆)(和)(楼)(市)(限)(制)(政)(策)(下)(,需)(求)(的)(衰)(退)(。但)(是)(整)(个)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(从)(2016年)(末)(至)(今)(已)(经)(趋)(稳)(,2018年)(1月)(份)(新)(城)(发)(展)(的)(销)(售)(增)(速)(已)(经)(回)(应)(了)(这)(个)(忧)(虑)(。加)(上)(新)(城)(布)(局)(的)(强)(二)(线)(城)(市)(刚)(需)(支)(撑)(,销)(售)(的)(增)(长)(是)(可)(以)(确)(保)(的)(。
2、重)(估)(逻)(辑)(仍)(然)(成)(立)(
去)(年)(先)(是)(三)(大)(巨)(头)(恒)(大)(、碧)(桂)(园)(和)(融)(创)(,引)(发)(了)(港)(股)(内)(房)(股)(整)(体)(板)(块)(的)(重)(估)(。在)(龙)(头)(的)(波)(澜)(壮)(阔)(的)(行)(情)(激)(发)(下)(,新)(城)(发)(展)(控)(股)((1030.HK)过)(去)(一)(年)(也)(上)(涨)(接)(近)(2倍)(,新)(城)(控)(股)(涨)(超)(1倍)(。
当)(时)(估)(值)(增)(长)(的)(逻)(辑)(有)(三)(点)(:
1、过)(去)(香)(港)(以)(外)(资)(为)(主)(的)(环)(境)(下)(,由)(于)(对)(房)(企)(高)(杠)(杆)(的)(担)(忧)(,内)(房)(一)(直)(处)(于)(十)(分)(低)(估)(状)(态)(,而)(南)(下)(资)(金)(促)(发)(了)(估)(值)(修)(复)(;
2、龙)(头)(带)(动)(下)(,行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(加)(强)(驱)(动)(下)(,对)(具)(有)(规)(模)(优)(势)(的)(企)(业)(进)(行)(重)(估)(。
3、纯)(业)(绩)(的)(增)(长)(。
1、过)(去)(香)(港)(以)(外)(资)(为)(主)(的)(环)(境)(下)(,由)(于)(对)(房)(企)(高)(杠)(杆)(的)(担)(忧)(,内)(房)(一)(直)(处)(于)(十)(分)(低)(估)(状)(态)(,而)(南)(下)(资)(金)(促)(发)(了)(估)(值)(修)(复)(;
2、龙)(头)(带)(动)(下)(,行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(加)(强)(驱)(动)(下)(,对)(具)(有)(规)(模)(优)(势)(的)(企)(业)(进)(行)(重)(估)(。
3、纯)(业)(绩)(的)(增)(长)(。
第)(三)(点)(逻)(辑)(已)(经)(讨)(论)(过)(了)(,那)(么)(接)(下)(来)(讨)(论)(一)(下)(前)(两)(天)(重)(估)(的)(逻)(辑)(。所)(谓)(重)(估)(就)(是)(赋)(予)(符)(合)(上)(诉)(条)(件)(的)(企)(业)(更)(高)(的)(估)(值)(,那)(么)(要)(看)(上)(面)(两)(大)(重)(估)(逻)(辑)(能)(否)(在)(新)(城)(发)(展)(上)(延)(续)(我)(们)(要)(从)(两)(个)(方)(面)(:1、企)(业)(的)(流)(动)(性)(是)(否)(健)(康)(,融)(资)(是)(否)(受)(阻)(;2、行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(提)(升)(,能)(否)(为)(新)(城)(发)(展)(带)(来)(优)(势)(。
1、现)(金)(流)(无)(忧)(
市)(场)(在)(估)(值)(时)(,会)(对)(于)(负)(债)(过)(高)(,现)(金)(流)(差)(的)(企)(业)(给)(予)(不)(同)(程)(度)(的)(折)(价)(,这)(也)(是)(过)(去)(外)(资)(给)(予)(内)(房)(很)(低)(估)(值)(的)(原)(因)(。所)(以)(如)(果)(现)(在)(企)(业)(会)(因)(为)(”去)(杠)(杆)(“政)(策)(资)(金)(链)(受)(损)(,则)(我)(们)(应)(该)(给)(予)(它)(折)(价)(。
所)(以)(我)(们)(先)(看)(新)(城)(发)(展)(的)(负)(债)(情)(况)(。这)(里)(我)(使)(用)(净)(负)(债)(率)(。净)(负)(债)(率)(是)(反)(映)(资)(产)(结)(构)(的)(指)(标)(,等)(于)((有)(息)(负)(债)(-货)(币)(资)(金)()/净)(资)(产)(,有)(息)(负)(债)(选)(取)(的)(是)(短)(期)(借)(款)(、一)(年)(内)(到)(期)(的)(长)(期)(借)(款)(、长)(期)(借)(款)(和)(应)(付)(债)(券)(四)(项)(指)(标)(之)(和)(。
横)(向)(对)(比)(,新)(城)(发)(展)(比)(同)(样)(高)(周)(转)(模)(式)(的)(阳)(光)(城)(等)(的)(净)(负)(债)(率)(要)(低)(,反)(映)(出)(新)(城)(对)(净)(负)(债)(率)(的)(控)(制)(能)(力)(要)(优)(于)(同)(行)(,公)(司)(的)(增)(长)(主)(要)(依)(靠)(的)(是)(出)(色)(的)(运)(营)(而)(不)(是)(简)(单)(粗)(暴)(的)(提)(高)(净)(负)(债)(率)(,同)(时)(,也)(说)(明)(新)(城)(扩)(大)(规)(模)(的)(空)(间)(要)(胜)(于)(同)(业)(。
2017上)(半)(年)(,公)(司)(新)(增)(债)(券)(45亿)(,所)(以)(负)(债)(率)(上)(升)(。目)(前)(净)(负)(债)(率)(接)(近)(1,短)(期)(现)(金)(也)(足)(够)(覆)(盖)(短)(期)(的)(贷)(款)(,目)(前)(企)(业)(流)(动)(性)(无)(忧)(。
2、行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(推)(动)(重)(估)(
在)(如)(今)(形)(势)(下)(千)(亿)(规)(模)(已)(经)(成)(为)(分)(水)(岭)(,房)(企)(不)(得)(不)(拼)(命)(进)(入)(千)(亿)(规)(模)(来)(避)(免)(日)(后)(掉)(队)(。预)(计)(18年)(TOP30的)(门)(槛)(能)(达)(到)(900亿)(元)(,而)(预)(计)(到)(19年)(TOP30的)(门)(槛)(要)(超)(过)(1000亿)(元)(,而)(如)(果)(企)(业)(掉)(出)(规)(模)(前)(30,那)(么)(未)(来)(的)(成)(长)(令)(人)(堪)(忧)(。行)(业)(在)(加)(速)(分)(化)(,跑)(在)(最)(前)(的)(企)(业)(优)(势)(将)(越)(来)(越)(大)(。
下)(面)(是)(2017年)(千)(亿)(规)(模)(的)(房)(企)(名)(单)(。
土)(储)(代)(表)(房)(企)(未)(来)(的)(成)(长)(空)(间)(,土)(储)(的)(集)(中)(度)(提)(升)(催)(化)(了)(规)(模)(的)(行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(提)(升)(,使)(得)(这)(个)(正)(反)(馈)(持)(续)(进)(行)(。下)(面)(是)(土)(地)(货)(值)(的)(排)(名)(名)(单)(。
新)(城)(发)(展)(2017年)(中)(期)(在)(建)(及)(竣)(工)(住)(宅)(项)(目)(规)(划)(建)(筑)(面)(积)(超)(2000万)(方)(,未)(结)(算)(货)(值)(超)(2500亿)(元)(。17年)(共)(在)(土)(地)(市)(场)(新)(获)(125个)(项)(目)(,共)(新)(增)(规)(划)(面)(积)(3,133.4万)(平)(米)(,同)(比)(增)(加)(了)(133.4%;总)(地)(价)(846.1亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(加)(54.1%,对)(应)(货)(值)(约)(3,000亿)(;平)(均)(楼)(面)(地)(价)(2,700元)(/平)(米)(,同)(比)(-32.3%。拿)(地)(金)(额)(占)(比)(销)(售)(金)(额)(67%,虽)(较)(16年)(全)(年)(82%下)(降)(15%,但)(仍)(属)(于)(加)(仓)(拿)(地)(。
同)(时)(新)(城)(发)(展)(,今)(年)(1月)(主)(要)(拿)(了)(三)(四)(线)(的)(土)(地)(,金)(额)(为)(29亿)(元)(,拿)(地)(计)(容)(建)(面)(142万)(方)(,对)(应)(楼)(面)(地)(价)(2020元)(每)(平)(米)(,较)(2017年)(年)(均)(拿)(地)(成)(本)(下)(降)(了)(27.6%,成)(本)(还)(有)(所)(下)(降)(了)(。
以)(目)(前)(新)(城)(发)(展)(的)(增)(速)(和)(土)(储)(货)(值)(,2018年)(极)(大)(的)(可)(能)(进)(入)(销)(售)(规)(模)(前)(十)(,可)(以)(说)(新)(城)(发)(展)(已)(经)(是)(行)(业)(前)(十)(的)(准)(入)(者)(。新)(城)(发)(展)(总)(货)(值)(超)(过)(2500亿)(元)(,而)(如)(今)(H股)(的)(新)(城)(发)(展)(控)(股)(市)(值)(约)(272亿)(元)(,A股)(的)(新)(城)(控)(股)(市)(值)(为)(726亿)(元)(,明)(显)(有)(很)(大)(的)(重)(估)(空)(间)(。而)(且)(即)(使)(考)(虑)(新)(城)(发)(展)(只)(控)(制)(了)(新)(城)(控)(股)(6成)(左)(右)(的)(股)(份)(,那)(么)(市)(值)(也)(是)(被)(低)(估)(了)(很)(多)(。
如)(果)(说)(过)(去)(2017年)(上)(述)(第)(一)(个)(重)(估)(逻)(辑)(至)(今)(在)(新)(城)(发)(展)(身)(上)(没)(有)(发)(生)(变)(化)(,那)(么)(经)(过)(一)(年)(的)(上)(涨)(,这)(部)(分)(的)(低)(估)(空)(间)(已)(经)(修)(复)(得)(差)(不)(多)(了)(。但)(企)(业)(的)(负)(债)(合)(理)(、资)(金)(链)(良)(好)(,因)(此)(不)(应)(该)(引)(发)(折)(价)(。
第)(二)(个)(逻)(辑)(则)(在)(2018年)(显)(得)(更)(重)(要)(,只)(要)(行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(逻)(辑)(不)(变)(,那)(么)(千)(亿)(规)(模)(以)(内)(的)(企)(业)(在)(现)(金)(流)(情)(况)(良)(好)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,会)(得)(到)(更)(高)(的)(估)(值)(。但)(是)(我)(们)(对)(比)(规)(模)(前)(十)(附)(近)(的)(企)(业)(,不)(管)(是)(十)(名)(前)(还)(是)(后)(,不)(管)(是)(港)(股)(还)(是)(A股)(,这)(些)(企)(业)(市)(值)(至)(少)(都)(是)(千)(亿)(市)(值)(,因)(此)(在)(此)(逻)(辑)(下)(新)(城)(发)(展)(依)(然)(有)(十)(分)(大)(的)(重)(估)(空)(间)(。
结)(尾)(:
综)(合)(上)(面)(所)(述)(,2018年)(新)(城)(控)(股)(有)(两)(大)(支)(撑)(其)(估)(值)(上)(升)(的)(逻)(辑)(并)(未)(动)(摇)(:1、高)(速)(周)(转)(下)(的)(确)(定)(性)(业)(绩)(和)(利)(润)(增)(长)(;2、对)(比)(同)(梯)(队)(房)(企)(,处)(于)(低)(估)(状)(态)(,行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(进)(一)(步)(加)(强)(会)(推)(动)(新)(城)(发)(展)(估)(值)(上)(升)(。
2018年)(1月)(25日)(,新)(城)(发)(展)(公)(布)(,至)(2017年)(12月)(31日)(止)(年)(度)(归)(属)(于)(本)(公)(司)(权)(益)(持)(有)(人)(的)(合)(并)(净)(利)(润)(将)(较)(截)(至)(2016年)(12月)(31日)(止)(年)(度)(增)(长)(至)(少)(100%。
可)(以)(这)(么)(说)(,如)(果)(过)(去)(一)(个)(月)(接)(近)(50%的)(上)(涨)(是)(市)(场)(对)(新)(城)(发)(展)(过)(去)(一)(年)(和)(一)(月)(份)(的)(业)(绩)(预)(期)(的)(兑)(现)(,那)(么)(这)(个)(实)(实)(在)(在)(的)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(带)(来)(的)(涨)(幅)(已)(经)(被)(抹)(平)(,明)(显)(这)(才)(是)(不)(可)(持)(续)(的)(。
过)(去)(的)(一)(周)(是)(市)(场)(非)(理)(性)(的)(一)(周)(,每)(次)(市)(场)(大)(幅)(波)(动)(之)(后)(,迎)(来)(的)(是)(一)(篇)(死)(气)(沉)(沉)(。这)(个)(时)(候)(正)(是)(我)(们)(抄)(底)(的)(大)(好)(时)(机)(,如)(果)(2018年)(有)(一)(家)(新)(晋)(的)(千)(亿)(市)(值)(房)(企)(,那)(么)(它)(一)(定)(是)(新)(城)(发)(展)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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