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财经观察:谁能打赢国际石油定价权大战

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月19日 10:55:29
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河内五分彩任选三技巧平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ/微信【421618535】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。财经观察:谁能打赢国际石油定价权大战

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(  新)(华)(网)(北)(京)(11月)(29日)(电)((记)(者)(刘)(丽)(娜)()近)(期)(,油)(价)(大)(跌)(风)(暴)(来)(袭)(,关)(于)(国)(际)(石)(油)(市)(场)(定)(价)(权)(之)(战)(的)(国)(际)(舆)(论)(不)(断)(升)(温)(。究)(竟)(谁)(会)(在)(最)(新)(这)(轮)(石)(油)(定)(价)(权)(争)(夺)(战)(中)(占)(据)(有)(利)(位)(置)(,从)(而)(为)(自)(身)(发)(展)(赢)(得)(更)(大)(生)(存)(空)(间)(呢)(?  市)(场)(如)(战)(场)(,谁)(能)(主)(导)(价)(格)(谁)(就)(能)(赢)(得)(战)(略)(主)(动)(,从)(而)(赢)(得)(国)(际)(博)(弈)(优)(势)(。这)(一)(点)(在)(极)(具)(战)(略)(意)(义)(的)(国)(际)(石)(油)(市)(场)(上)(体)(现)(得)(最)(充)(分)(不)(过)(了)(。根)(本)(而)(言)(,决)(定)(价)(格)(的)(是)(市)(场)(之)(两)(面)(—“供)(”与)(“需)(”。此)(外)(,鉴)(于)(石)(油)(具)(有)(战)(略)(价)(值)(,影)(响)(油)(价)(的)(既)(有)(单)(纯)(的)(市)(场)(因)(素)(,还)(有)(地)(缘)(政)(治)(等)(非)(市)(场)(因)(素)(。  从)(历)(史)(上)(看)(,在)(国)(际)(石)(油)(市)(场)(的)(供)(需)(天)(平)(上)(,供)(应)(方)(始)(终)(占)(据)(主)(动)(。当)(前)(国)(际)(油)(市)(中)(的)(供)(应)(“大)(玩)(家)(”有)(几)(个)(,其)(中)(影)(响)(力)(最)(大)(的)(是)(石)(油)(输)(出)(国)(组)(织)((欧)(佩)(克)()。这)(个)(成)(立)(迄)(今)(54年)(的)(石)(油)(生)(产)(者)(联)(盟)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(扮)(演)(了)(价)(格)(托)(拉)(斯)(角)(色)(。  尽)(管)(目)(前)(有)(12个)(成)(员)(国)(的)(欧)(佩)(克)(产)(量)(只)(占)(全)(球)(原)(油)(总)(产)(量)(的)(三)(分)(之)(一)(,但)(该)(联)(盟)(因)(为)(能)(够)(用)(“一)(个)(声)(音)(”说)(话)(,成)(为)(国)(际)(油)(市)(中)(的)(“高)(音)(喇)(叭)(”,对)(价)(格)(的)(影)(响)(力)(相)(当)(可)(观)(。本)(周)(四)(欧)(佩)(克)(决)(定)(不)(减)(产)(的)(决)(定)(引)(发)(周)(五)(国)(际)(油)(价)(大)(跌)(,就)(是)(欧)(佩)(克)(对)(油)(价)(影)(响)(力)(的)(明)(证)(。  国)(际)(油)(市)(中)(还)(有)(不)(少)(单)(打)(独)(斗)(的)(供)(应)(方)(,如)(:俄)(罗)(斯)(、加)(拿)(大)(、挪)(威)(、英)(国)(,印)(度)(尼)(西)(亚)(,以)(及)(一)(些)(非)(洲)(国)(家)(,当)(然)(还)(有)(供)(应)(能)(力)(不)(断)(增)(强)(的)(美)(国)(。此)(外)(,跨)(国)(公)(司)(在)(油)(价)(定)(价)(权)(中)(的)(影)(响)(力)(也)(不)(容)(小)(视)(,历)(史)(上)(,特)(别)(是)(欧)(佩)(克)(成)(立)(前)(,跨)(国)(石)(油)(巨)(头)(对)(油)(价)(的)(直)(接)(操)(纵)(力)(是)(惊)(人)(的)(。  鉴)(于)(美)(国)(近)(年)(来)(爆)(发)(页)(岩)(油)(革)(命)(,一)(些)(人)(坚)(信)(,美)(国)(突)(然)(增)(加)(的)(供)(应)(将)(彻)(底)(改)(变)(石)(油)(市)(场)(的)(供)(需)(平)(衡)(,美)(国)(有)(可)(能)(重)(新)(夺)(回)(被)(欧)(佩)(克)(长)(期)(主)(导)(的)(油)(市)(定)(价)(主)(导)(权)(。市)(场)(预)(计)(,美)(国)(明)(年)(石)(油)(供)(应)(量)(有)(望)(从)(目)(前)(的)(800万)(-900万)(桶)(升)(至)(每)(天)(1100万)(桶)(以)(上)(。  再)(从)(需)(求)(角)(度)(看)(,世)(界)(经)(济)(的)(景)(气)(与)(否)(直)(接)(影)(响)(着)(石)(油)(消)(费)(。当)(前)(,世)(界)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(之)(路)(崎)(岖)(不)(平)(,整)(体)(下)(行)(风)(险)(较)(大)(。经)(合)(组)(织)(最)(新)(报)(告)(显)(示)(,欧)(元)(区)(已)(经)(成)(为)(世)(界)(经)(济)(的)(“大)(包)(袱)(”,日)(本)(经)(济)(在)(通)(缩)(泥)(潭)(里)(难)(以)(自)(拔)(,中)(国)(虽)(然)(仍)(能)(维)(持)(较)(高)(增)(速)(,但)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(已)(是)(各)(方)(共)(识)(。  从)(长)(期)(来)(看)(,全)(球)(经)(济)(未)(来)(对)(能)(源)(的)(依)(赖)(度)(将)(逐)(步)(降)(低)(。国)(际)(能)(源)(署)(在)(本)(月)(上)(旬)(发)(布)(的)(全)(球)(能)(源)(展)(望)(报)(告)(中)(预)(计)(,未)(来)(全)(球)(能)(源)(需)(求)(增)(速)(将)(明)(显)(放)(缓)(,从)(过)(去)(20年)(里)(每)(年)(2%,下)(降)(到)(2025年)(之)(后)(每)(年)(1%。  除)(了)(供)(需)(之)(外)(,很)(多)(非)(市)(场)(因)(素)(也)(能)(影)(响)(油)(价)(走)(势)(。历)(史)(上)(看)(,每)(当)(油)(价)(大)(幅)(震)(荡)(之)(时)(,往)(往)(是)(地)(缘)(政)(治)(关)(系)(紧)(张)(之)(际)(。例)(如)(上)(世)(纪)(的)(两)(伊)(战)(争)(、90年)(代)(的)(伊)(拉)(克)(战)(争)(等)(都)(对)(油)(价)(产)(生)(巨)(大)(冲)(击)(。  眼)(下)(,最)(受)(关)(注)(的)(地)(缘)(政)(治)(热)(点)(是)(因)(乌)(克)(兰)(危)(机)(引)(起)(的)(俄)(罗)(斯)(与)(西)(方)(的)(对)(抗)(。西)(方)(与)(俄)(罗)(斯)(之)(间)(的)(制)(裁)(与)(反)(制)(裁)(博)(弈)(愈)(演)(愈)(烈)(,使)(“新)(冷)(战)(”一)(词)(成)(为)(国)(际)(舆)(论)(的)(讨)(论)(热)(点)(。  如)(今)(的)(国)(际)(石)(油)(市)(场)(,各)(种)(可)(能)(影)(响)(价)(格)(额)(的)(因)(素)(泥)(沙)(俱)(下)(,关)(于)(油)(价)(的)(阴)(谋)(论)(甚)(嚣)(尘)(上)(,并)(集)(中)(反)(映)(在)(两)(大)(猜)(想)(上)(:一)(是)(美)(国)(利)(用)(油)(价)(打)(击)(俄)(罗)(斯)(,二)(是)(沙)(特)(利)(用)(低)(油)(价)(打)(击)(美)(国)(页)(岩)(油)(。有)(观)(察)(者)(认)(为)(,关)(于)(油)(价)(的)(博)(弈)(已)(经)(越)(来)(越)(呈)(现)(“多)(极)(化)(”特)(征)(,无)(论)(美)(国)(,还)(是)(沙)(特)(,都)(没)(有)(能)(力)(在)(国)(际)(油)(市)(当)(中)(仅)(凭)(一)(己)(之)(力)(翻)(云)(覆)(雨)(。  欧)(佩)(克)(27日)(不)(减)(产)(决)(定)(一)(经)(发)(布)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(总)(统)(普)(京)(就)(出)(面)(喊)(话)(,称)(这)(一)(决)(定)(对)(俄)(罗)(斯)(有)(利)(,并)(宣)(称)(到)(2015年)(上)(半)(年)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(会)(恢)(复)(稳)(定)(。这)(表)(面)(上)(看)(似)(不)(合)(理)(的)(表)(态)(,其)(潜)(台)(词)(却)(颇)(值)(得)(玩)(味)(。  如)(今)(,国)(际)(油)(市)(定)(价)(权)(争)(夺)(进)(入)(了)(战)(国)(时)(代)(,石)(油)(供)(需)(天)(平)(上)(的)(各)(路)(玩)(家)(正)(在)(震)(荡)(中)(重)(新)(洗)(牌)(,谁)(是)(最)(大)(赢)(家)(目)(前)(尚)(难)(断)(定)(。短)(期)(看)(,产)(油)(国)(利)(润)(受)(损)(毫)(无)(疑)(问)(,而)(消)(费)(国)(趁)(低)(油)(价)(抓)(紧)(储)(备)(则)(是)(大)(好)(时)(机)(。  作)(者)(:刘)(丽)(娜)(
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